TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 cold front is running through central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 those storms east of chi town just went tornadic. Nice looking complex out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 that's a derecho forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I know its not our region, but this derecho is kicking ass right now...they just gusted to 91 mph in eastern Indiana. KFWA 291854Z 27055G79KT 3SM TS HZ SQ SCT042 SCT049CB OVC070 32/21 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 27079/1854 TSB54 SLP112 and this thing's going right to the coast tonight (DC/BWI) This is what it looked like rolling into chicago earlier when it wasnt nearly as severe as it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 that's a derecho forming Seems like they form with the extreme heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I know its not our region, but this derecho is kicking ass right now...they just gusted to 91 mph in eastern Indiana. KFWA 291854Z 27055G79KT 3SM TS HZ SQ SCT042 SCT049CB OVC070 32/21 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 27079/1854 TSB54 SLP112 and this thing's going right to the coast tonight (DC/BWI) This is what it looked like rolling into chicago earlier when it wasnt nearly as severe as it is now. beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 those storms east of chi town just went tornadic. Nice looking complex out there. Hoping to see something similar out this way tommorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Upgraded to moderate risk in Ohio/SW PA/WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 it might make a turn south and miss dc just to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 ahh if only to be in Columbus, OH right now watching this come in from the west OHC011-021-065-091-109-149-292030- /O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-120629T2030Z/ AUGLAIZE OH-CHAMPAIGN OH-HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-MIAMI OH-SHELBY OH- 400 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR SHELBY...NORTHERN MIAMI...WESTERN LOGAN...WESTERN HARDIN... WESTERN CHAMPAIGN AND EASTERN AUGLAIZE COUNTIES... AT 358 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND VIOLENT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNESFIELD TO LOCKINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 18z NAM trended south...12z Euro trended north...probably will come down to the wire. The set up is there for sure. The ongoing event is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 18z NAM trended south...12z Euro trended north...probably will come down to the wire. The set up is there for sure. The ongoing event is very impressive. dissapointed with the NAM's handling of last nights small event, so putting more stock in the euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 And what is the timing? 18z NAM trended south...12z Euro trended north...probably will come down to the wire. The set up is there for sure. The ongoing event is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 RSM5 is outrageoud on the SREFS, feels like winter time, lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Big time path of wind damage with this derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 18z NAM way south for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 1854 91 5 SW FORT WAYNE ALLEN IN 4098 8519 MEASURED 91 MPH GUST AT FORT WAYNE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (IWX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The MCV over Iowa now, is the MCS the models show for tomorrow night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 71 kt gust just now at Dayton airport. What a BEAST... Pay attention to what this does around/after sunset tonight in the DC area...That could be us (though most likely south Jersey on latest data) by tomorrow evening with a similar MCS event (dare i say derecho??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 dissapointed with the NAM's handling of last nights small event, so putting more stock in the euro right now. huh? As per Bluewave this morning: The NAM nailed the MCS track on Wednesday going just to our south while the GFS was too far north. Looks like the NAM was the most accurate. Hasnt the Euro been poor this summer too? For example with the hurricane in the gulf? GFS owned it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 huh? As per Bluewave this morning: The NAM nailed the MCS track on Wednesday going just to our south while the GFS was too far north. Looks like the NAM was the most accurate. Hasnt the Euro been poor this summer too? For example with the hurricane in the gulf? GFS owned it? The 18z and 00Z had NO measurable precip yesterday for the immediate area, and we all know what wasn't the case. It also underestimated the complex in southern PA GFS was too far north. Euro was right in terms of showing the precip and where it fell, although it showed .01 to .10, and several places had more, but in thunderstorms, that is to be expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The 18z NAM has this thing around DC sunday morning, and the latest SREFS have shifted much further south as well, scraping Southern Long island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The 18z and 00Z had NO measurable precip yesterday for the immediate area, and we all know what wasn't the case. It also underestimated the complex in southern PA GFS was too far north. Euro was right in terms of showing the precip and where it fell, although it showed .01 to .10, and several places had more, but in thunderstorms, that is to be expected While the qpf was off, that does generally show where the center of the MCS was...it moved from central PA south to southern/central jersey...and our light storms popped up just north with the warm front...so the general track was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 While the qpf was off, that does generally show where the center of the MCS was...it moved from central PA south to southern/central jersey...and our light storms popped up just north with the warm front...so the general track was right dude, it has no precip, you can't call that correct, regardless where the center of the "mcs" complex was. Euro had the precip, it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 71 kt gust just now at Dayton airport. What a BEAST... Pay attention to what this does around/after sunset tonight in the DC area...That could be us (though most likely south Jersey on latest data) by tomorrow evening with a similar MCS event (dare i say derecho??) I'm pretty impressed with the way that entire thing evolved. Apparently SPC is too...jumping to Moderate Risk after the initial day 1 had 15% probabilities over a relatively small area. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic may stand in the way of a pretty significant wind event tomorrow evening...at this point I would say there is also a decent possibility that the organized MCS extends as far north as Philly and the Central NJ shore..but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Just glancing through the SPC severe weather reports, you can find several 70+mph gusts and a handful of 80-85+mph gusts from the derecho-type system over the past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Just glancing through the SPC severe weather reports, you can find several 70+mph gusts and a handful of 80-85+mph gusts from the derecho-type system over the past few hours. dont got a good feeling about this MCS for our area. i think it'll be like this type deal this morning where south jersey will get the storms and we'll get some rogue storms popping up over our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 dude, it has no precip, you can't call that correct, regardless where the center of the "mcs" complex was. Euro had the precip, it was right. we'll see what happens, i am just glad this thing is progged to come in early enough so that we can salvage sunday, i have about 3 hours of grilling to do and 35 guests coming over...I would also appreciate it if the yard wasnt soaking wet when everyone arrives...god, i love dry summers with no rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 dont got a good feeling about this MCS for our area. i think it'll be like this type deal this morning where south jersey will get the storms and we'll get some rogue storms popping up over our area Tomorrows event has virtually no similarities to what happened this morning, completely different synoptic setup. But you can see the SPC SREF trying to pin an area of probabilities for severe weather -- agreeing with the synoptic discussion we had earlier regarding the mid level height field -- and targeting the Northern Mid-Atlantic near the M/D Line including Southern PA and extending down towards the DC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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