June 2012 Severe Weather/Convection Discussion

[IsentropicLift]

I am loving the fact that I will be at the shore this weekend, I think my location of just a little northwest of Atlantic City will be prime for the MCS.

[blizzardof09]

I am loving the fact that I will be at the shore this weekend, I think my location of just a little northwest of Atlantic City will be prime for the MCS.

Good for you take some pics/videos of it for us. Currently looks like its gonna go to our south and miss us so u may be in the bullseye yanksfan

[Isotherm]

As I noted in an earlier post, MCS events tend to ride along/near the 582dm height line. Per the NAM, this will be approximately from Pitt to PHL to ACY, and those are the areas I think have the best shot at severe right now. Given the tendency for a more southward correction, I'd probably give Baltimore a higher prob than NYC for strong storms. I have some hope here in CNJ, but my gut says this is a BWI-PHL-ACY triangle event.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F29%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=042&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[IsentropicLift]

Good for you take some pics/videos of it for us. Currently looks like its gonna go to our south and miss us so u may be in the bullseye yanksfan

I will do my best, have a new didgital camera to tryout. Problem is, I will be staying in an RV surrounded by tall trees. If the threat looks serious enough I might move to a safer location.

The event also looks to be moving further and further south on each consecutive model run, so I might end up on the northern fringe or even dry by the time this event gets closer. Maybe we get a moderate risk out of this (45% prob for wind) but for some reason we usually end up with better events when the probs are lower.

[Isotherm]

As I noted in an earlier post, MCS events tend to ride along/near the 582dm height line. Per the NAM, this will be approximately from Pitt to PHL to ACY, and those are the areas I think have the best shot at severe right now. Given the tendency for a more southward correction, I'd probably give Baltimore a higher prob than NYC for strong storms. I have some hope here in CNJ, but my gut says this is a BWI-PHL-ACY triangle event.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

It's a bit disappointing as we don't see these set-ups near our area too often, but I think this will be a summer where we're on the NE periphery of the mid level ridge quite frequently, with NW flow aloft. So hopefully many more opportunities to come.

[NorEaster27]

We need the ridging to be slighly stronger than proged, it still could happen its 2 days out.

[Isotherm]

We need the ridging to be slighly stronger than proged, it still could happen its 2 days out.

Agreed.

[bluewave]

As I noted in an earlier post, MCS events tend to ride along/near the 582dm height line. Per the NAM, this will be approximately from Pitt to PHL to ACY, and those are the areas I think have the best shot at severe right now. Given the tendency for a more southward correction, I'd probably give Baltimore a higher prob than NYC for strong storms. I have some hope here in CNJ, but my gut says this is a BWI-PHL-ACY triangle event.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

Yeah, they love to track between the 582 and 588 dm line.

[IsentropicLift]

The vort travels almost right accross the George Washington Bridge so you would need a track much further north as most of the convection fires on the SE side according to the NAM.

[Isotherm]

Yeah, they love to track between the 582 and 588 dm line.

The SREF seems to develop an MCS Saturday afternoon for DCA-PHL, then a second one later Sat night/Sun morning further north for PHL/SNJ.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F29%2F2012+09UTC&rname=PRECIP+MEANSPRD&pname=prob_precip_25&pdesc=&model=SREF&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[IsentropicLift]

...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE

GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES SATURDAY. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SHOULD

EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. RICHER LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL PERSIST IN

VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. EXPANSIVE EML PLUME HAS ALREADY ADVECTED

THROUGH MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND

RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY /3000+ MLCAPE/ WILL LIKELY EXIST

WHERE THE NRN FRINGE OF EML OVERLAPS THE MOIST AXIS. A FEW STORMS

MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG

BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST

FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...IN

VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND

INTENSIFY AS THEY ADVANCE SEWD. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED

WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE

SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING

SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL. SOME

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING

ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH EML. AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY

BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE THESE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

[TheTrials]

some of the soundings for this afternoon aren't terrible, if there was a trigger somewhere, we could get some storms, but i dont think there is a trigger present

[IsentropicLift]

some of the soundings for this afternoon aren't terrible, if there was a trigger somewhere, we could get some storms, but i dont think there is a trigger present

Instability is exceeding 2500 SBCAPE everywhere except LI eastward. Effective bulk shear is on the order of 40-50 kts accross the entire area except eastern LI and mid-level lapse rates are awesome. But we have a cap in place, and no real trigger. Shame, LI index is -9 over western areas.

[TheTrials]

21Z HPN

[TheTrials]

Instability is exceeding 2500 SBCAPE everywhere except LI eastward. Effective bulk shear is on the order of 40-50 kts accross the entire area except eastern LI and mid-level lapse rates are awesome. But we have a cap in place, and no real trigger. Shame, LI index is -9 over western areas.

Cap isn't terrible.

[IsentropicLift]

Cap isn't terrible.

I agree, and with a good trigger we could probably overcome it, but we don't even have a seabreeze to count on.

I've noticed on radar a little bit of activity has recently shown up on NE PA but it's hard to tell if that is just static.

[tornadojay]

well.. with the absence of any true forcing, the convection temperature will almost be met today. The lower level temperature profile is forecast to be almost dry adiabatic from the CCL.

[TheTrials]

well.. with the absence of any true forcing, the convection temperature will almost be met today. The lower levels are forecast to be almost dry adiabatic from the CCL.

Yeah it aint happening

[ag3]

Bad timing. If that MCS rolled through now, instead of 5am, could've been a great severe day.

The Sunday one also looks like it will roll through here pre-dawn hours.

[IsentropicLift]

Let not your heart be troubled, mother nature will make up for it tommorrow

New Day 2 Outlook

[tornadojay]

Bad timing. If that MCS rolled through now, instead of 5am, could've been a great severe day.

The Sunday one also looks like it will roll through here pre-dawn hours.

seems like whenever we get an MCS.. it's always between like 4-5 AM, it seems.

[blizzardof09]

seems like whenever we get an MCS.. it's always between like 4-5 AM, it seems.

Im starting to think were gonna miss that MCS in the tristate area and get through sunday with no storms. Having a hard time seeing this thing come back north from where its currently forecasted to occur

[TheTrials]

I'm not convinced that will miss to the se. Several sref members nail us

[ag3]

12z euro has the MCS further north then the American models. Centers it near our area but the heaviest storms near SNE.

[TheTrials]

12z euro has the MCS further north then the American models. Centers it near our area but the heaviest storms near SNE.

Pants tent

[NorEaster27]

SB lift index around -11 over the area....

[TheTrials]

just ridiculous setup for storms and nothing to show for it other than the 15 min light show this morning.

[TheTrials]

RGEM. Woof.

[IsentropicLift]

SBCAPE now in the 3500-4000 J/KG range and effective bulk shear in the 40-50 kt range. It's about the same as having a naked girl ontop of you, and then the phone rings and she suddenly has to leave.

[tornadojay]

the only shred of hope with lack of synoptic forcing or any distinct boundaries are airmass type thunderstorms and that could happen if we reach the convective temp, which looks to be at or just slightly higher than our forecasted high temps for today... cloud base would be fairly high with CCL is pretty high up today. So far, I'm not seeing any CU build-up at all in my area.. might have to wait till a bit later when we reach peak heating to see if a rogue storm or two can fire up.