StatenWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It also looks like the main theme this month so far is that the storms tend to reintensify once they hit the immediate coast instead of dying like normal. Probably because of the way above normal SSTs offshore. Having said that and the anticipation of a strong MCS to impact the area on Sunday morning, I am pulling an all-nighter on Saturday night! I have a good feeling about Brooklyn cashing in on some hail and/or wind. We haven't seen a severe report in a while, so it's overdue. Anyone remember July 2007? No I do not please elaborate there have been many storms my young mind cannot remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Decent lightning but not much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Not saying that the synoptic setup on Sunday morning will be the same as what happened on July 2007, but Staten Island and Brooklyn received a damaging EF1-EF2 tornado on a morning that preceded a hot and humid day in the 90s. It all occured from a MCS that approached from the west; very few forecasters honed in on the threat until the storm actually developed. We weren't even in a Slight Risk or Severe T-storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 5 min delay but golf FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Wow, take a look at the Day 2 SPC outlook for Saturday night! Not only does the 15% Slight Risk area touch NYC, but most of the slight risk area is encompassed in hatching!Hatched outlooks are akin to what the Great Plains and Midwest sees often, but we rarely see them here. damn your right! lets just hope that comes to fruition though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Not saying that the synoptic setup on Sunday morning will be the same as what happened on July 2007, but Staten Island and Brooklyn received a damaging EF1-EF2 tornado on a morning that preceded a hot and humid day in the 90s. It all occured from a MCS that approached from the west; very few forecasters honed in on the threat until the storm actually developed. We weren't even in a Slight Risk or Severe T-storm watch. Nvm, my dad was working when it went through and he got a video, it didn't even look like a tornado just a large mass slowly rotating, I'll look to see if I can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Not saying that the synoptic setup on Sunday morning will be the same as what happened on July 2007, but Staten Island and Brooklyn received a damaging EF1-EF2 tornado on a morning that preceded a hot and humid day in the 90s. It all occured from a MCS that approached from the west; very few forecasters honed in on the threat until the storm actually developed. We weren't even in a Slight Risk or Severe T-storm watch. yea this setup is earily similar. this MCS is def something to watch for saturday night/sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Not saying that the synoptic setup on Sunday morning will be the same as what happened on July 2007, but Staten Island and Brooklyn received a damaging EF1-EF2 tornado on a morning that preceded a hot and humid day in the 90s. It all occured from a MCS that approached from the west; very few forecasters honed in on the threat until the storm actually developed. We weren't even in a Slight Risk or Severe T-storm watch. Wasn't that August 2007? The only way I remember this storm is from its headline: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Wasn't that August 2007? The only way I remember this storm is from its headline: I live about a mile from bay ridge and we had a lot of trees down in our are, I went to one of the parks at night and the damage was incredible, the trees and some ligthpoles were completely twisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The NAM nailed the MCS track on Wednesday going just to our south while the GFS was too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 well we got a light shower with some thunder this morning, just will make things more oppressive when the sun pokes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Mcs on Sunday morning now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 LGA and NYC recorded around .20" of rain from that quick thunderstorm this morning. Everyone else only :05" to .11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 The August 2007 storm was on a warm front with locally enhanced low level shear..the storm developed in Northwest PA and tracked east/southeast through Northern NJ and into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The August 2007 storm was on a warm front with locally enhanced low level shear..the storm developed in Northwest PA and tracked east/southeast through Northern NJ and into NYC. Earthlight id like to hear your insight about the possibilty of a powerful MCS sunday? Posted earlier hpc had us in 15% slight risk So thats got to mean something considering hpc is usually very good at what they do. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Its hard to pin the exact placment of any MCS, I tend to favor just SW of our area like this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Earthlight id like to hear your insight about the possibilty of a powerful MCS sunday? Posted earlier hpc had us in 15% slight risk So thats got to mean something considering hpc is usually very good at what they do. Thanks It looks like we're on the fringe of the potential convective activity right now. The SREF mean has the best severe weather probabilities just off to our south and west. That being said, when you're near an upper air gradient like this you can never be sure. The 06z NAM continued the idea of bringing an MCS through the area (3rd or 4th straight run to do so) but note the position of the vorticity which has sunk a bit to our south. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_6z/f36.gif In these type of situations it will be hard to pinpoint the exact track of any organized convection until later tonight or early tomorrow morning. But the very high instability values and 30-40+kts of shear should at least get everyones attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Earthlight i believe it was bluewave or isotherm that said MCS tend to happen south of where there forecasted if i interpreted there statement correctly. That being said with the system looking like having the best action to our south and west currently would that mean our chances are not very good at seeing good convection as compared to jersey south? And you right the kind of parameters forecast is going to atleast peaked some people interests. Theres gonna be somebody that will get hit hard for sure if this comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Earthlight i believe it was bluewave or isotherm that said MCS tend to happen south of where there forecasted if i interpreted there statement correctly. That being said with the system looking like having the best action to our south and west currently would that mean our chances are not very good at seeing good convection as compared to jersey south? And you right the kind of parameters forecast is going to atleast peaked some people interests. Theres gonna be somebody that will get hit hard for sure if this comes to fruition Convection will develop, that's almost a certainty with the shortwave and instability. The shear is actually decently impressive, the SREF mean has a decent probability of 40 or more kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The issue of where it will track will be a problem up until the morning of the event. Generally my feeling is that we're slightly too far south and a little too far east for this event. But the development and organization of a convective system can change the ball game completely. SPC including hatching for significant severe weather in their outlook is pretty fair given the circumstances...that type of shear with high instability and a forcing mechanism is reason alone. I wouldn't be surprised to see 30% probabilities added later this afternoon if we can begin to pin down an area of most organized storms. We should start getting a better idea with the 12z guidance including the 12z NAM/SREF and SPC WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Convection will develop, that's almost a certainty with the shortwave and instability. The shear is actually decently impressive, the SREF mean has a decent probability of 40 or more kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The issue of where it will track will be a problem up until the morning of the event. Generally my feeling is that we're slightly too far south and a little too far east for this event. But the development and organization of a convective system can change the ball game completely. SPC including hatching for significant severe weather in their outlook is pretty fair given the circumstances...that type of shear with high instability and a forcing mechanism is reason alone. I wouldn't be surprised to see 30% probabilities added later this afternoon if we can begin to pin down an area of most organized storms. We should start getting a better idea with the 12z guidance including the 12z NAM/SREF and SPC WRF. Do you have an alternate link for the SPC WRF as the site hasn't been updating recently for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Okay so thats big if we ge upgraded to 30% kind of shows the possibility of an A.M. Severe weather outbreak. The parameters are incredible, but your right though where the best development takes place is gonna determine whos gonna be in line for the most severe of storms. Looks like a very busy friday/saturday to pin down this forecast for HPC and you and other knowledgable severe weather people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Do you have an alternate link for the SPC WRF as the site hasn't been updating recently for me? The one I use didn't update last night but has been pretty good the last few weeks. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The one I use didn't update last night but has been pretty good the last few weeks. http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/ Yeah, that's the one that I use also. I noticed a message a while back about lack of updates from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 12z NAM is even more south with the MCS than the 06z NAM was and I agree with this....thinking we get missed to the south on the sat night complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 IF this baby develops sunday morning, will be outta here by noon right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yeah, that's the one that I use also. I noticed a message a while back about lack of updates from time to time. Yeah from what I found out, it has to do with computing issues so they don't run it at times. Generally, though, it's reliable probably 8 out of 10 times. If the 00z doesn't run, the 12z almost always will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Id like to pick up on what was mentioned earlier about storms this summer intensify as they hit the coast...time and time again storms hit eastern NJ, fire up and then really blow up in Western nassau county, any ideas on why this happens? Usually storms die out as they push east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 NAM has a very potent event very early Sunday morning. Same time as today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 NAM has a very potent event very early Sunday morning. Same time as today. looks like identical location as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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