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June 2012 Severe Weather/Convection Discussion


earthlight

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Weird. Perth Amboy is to my North, East Brunswick is to my south, and South River is directly to my east, yet I didn't see anything bigger than peas. That's disappointing.

Those are not official spotter reports, correct, they are public reports? have to be taken with a grain of salt.

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I was driving through northern Mercer and had the same deal. I liked the sky with the orange-tint underneath the base of the storm and then as I drove under it, the sky was like night. The lightning was intense and so was the heavy rain. No hail where I was and the wind didn't crack 30 mph.

This was just to the south:

1205 UNK 2 E HAMILTON TWP MERCER NJ 4021 7466 TREE DOWN AT NEW JERSEY STATE POLICE HAMILTON STATION (PHI)

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The damn Th woke me up with intense thunder and frequent ctg lightning (My estimate is that it took place between 7:30 and 8:30am, and under these circumstances, I would have been better off being in Manh. or northern Queens). It kind of reminds you that they do take place here. Just wish that it occurred a little bit later so I could have appreciated it more.

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Is it safe to say the severe threat is dead for the rest of the day?

Should be some additional scattered storms this afternoon especially further east as the cold front comes through, according to the short range models, but the widespread heavy storms are done for the day.

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Right where the radar was indicating stronger winds earlier.

0748 AM MARINE TSTM WIND BAYVILLE 40.91N 73.56W

06/25/2012 M51 MPH NASSAU NY MESONET

MESONET

0755 AM MARINE TSTM WIND EATONS NECK 40.95N 73.39W

06/25/2012 M45 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET

MESONET

0915 AM MARINE TSTM WIND NEW LONDON 41.35N 72.10W

06/25/2012 M45 MPH NEW LONDON CT MESONET

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Yeah that rain cooled airmass from this morning is being replaced by muggy conditions once again. But not sure it's going to be enough to spark any new thunderstorm activity.

We're destabilizing pretty well in New Brunswick now. I still think this afternoon has potential as the cold front approaches and the NW winds aloft increase and as we destabilize a bit more. Idk how areas further north are doing wrt to destabilization though.

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We're destabilizing pretty well in New Brunswick now. I still think this afternoon has potential as the cold front approaches and the NW winds aloft increase and as we destabilize a bit more. Idk how areas further north are doing wrt to destabilization though.

from Upton:

ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DEPEND ON

WHERE AND WHEN UPSTREAM CLOUDS DISSIPATE TO INCREASE SFC BASED AND

LOW LVL INSTABILITY.

FOR NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TO BKN

CONVECTION...LESS ORGANIZED THAN THIS MORNING...ALTHO ISOLATED

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STAY TUNED.

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watch dropped. I believe drier air is advecting in which probably kills any chance of meaningful convection later today, combined with the rain cooled airmass in place now.

Well if it's drier at the mid levels, that's a good thing. As long as we can keep our surface somewhat moist and continue to destabilize, we can still do okay.

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I had to drive my wife to work in West Brighton during the height of the storm...Martling creek was flooding the road...I forgot to put out my rain guage...We must have gotten over an inch of rain?...

Yeah Unc... 1.44 in. here... checked out church lightning strike... lighting strucked the very top of the bell tower just below the big cross.. tore a pretty good hole in the roof. The priest was joking that he is supposed to be tranfered to a different church and maybe someone was trying to tell them to keep him there lol.
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If you take a look at the SPC site, we still have 1000-2000 j/kg of into northeast PA working its way SE into the area with 500-1000 j/kg scattered about this area. Here in Ramsey we have had mostly broken clouds until the past 15 minutes which is back to overcast looking skies.

All this with 50+ effective bulk shear right over the area. If we can get a bit more instability working in, watch out.

eshr.gif?1340644435573

sbcp.gif?1340644386683

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Storms pretty much missed northern Queens and Manhattan. Just some light rain and an occasional lightning and thunder strike.

yea same here. moderate rain with a little thunder...threaded the needle today.

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everything lined up to the north, simply not enough left in the atmosphere down here.

Not surprising as that's usually the case with intense morning convection. Most of our atmospheric energy has been utilized already, so it's difficult for much more than some spotty T-storms to develop. It's nice out here now, partly cloudy and humid, but the destabilization will not be sufficient to get severe convection initiated down here.

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