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June 2012 Severe Weather/Convection Discussion


earthlight

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Looks rather meh for tomorrow. Bad timing. Parts of the area need a break anyway.

agreed. Thunderstorms are ok for a while but then they get old...with snow you can still go outside, walk around, walk the dog, etc.

With bad storms you are pinned down inside with no outdoors time (unless you are insane).

Power outages also suck as do down trees and blocked roads.

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I'm out at Orient Point State Park and the beach is beautiful. What perfect weather for outdoor activities. Just gorgeous.

Was out there yesterday. The water quality has been great this year because of the slow warming of the water.

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Storms and rain are highly likely tomorrow morning.

Whenever you see all models dropping such high amounts of qpf areawide, it's a clear cut sign of organized convection.

Severe or not, should be an interesting morning.

as i said, lame.

Thunderstorms to cool off a hot summer day are good, but for an entire morning/day, dont see the fun in that.

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First round of showers and t-storms is with the warm front early tomorrow morning, then with the second round with cold front passage around 18z. The 12z runs still show CAPE 1000> J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear 30kts>. So there could still be few strong or severe t-storms.

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nothing looks all that strong/severe, may not even see much thunder

Great mid level lapse rates and shear for most of the day. The main question is what the location

of the strongest cells will be. Somebody in the Northeast will see severe with these soundings.

Really can't pin down a specific location from 24 hrs out though.

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Any reasoning for this opinion, or just a wild guess?

Gut feeling and wishful thinking. Driving up to Boston for an interview. Don't feel like being stuck on Connecticut turnpike in storms all day.

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Gut feeling and wishful thinking. Driving up to Boston for an interview. Don't feel like being stuck on Connecticut turnpike in storms all day.

Tomorrow's setup looks better then Friday. Especially for widespread heavy rain with convection.

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Sounds like a better post for the banter thread

You might be right...but I am discussing my gut feelings on tomorrow's storms...so it is not at all OT. But you the mod and this isn't a democracy.

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Was out there yesterday. The water quality has been great this year because of the slow warming of the water.

Did you go fishing in Plum Gut?

I caught a 43lb Striper there on Friday nights outgoing tide.

Anyway, tommorow looks good for some decent severe weather. The GFS looked really good for New England.

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Slight risk for coastal areas tomorrow:

day2.gif

.SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE ERN NC VICINITY

AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT CLUSTERS OF STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS MAY EVOLVE...SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY SEWD AND ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE SEVERE THREAT AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK AREA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING -- WITH AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY TO LINGER BEYOND SUNSET.

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Did you go fishing in Plum Gut?

I caught a 43lb Striper there on Friday nights outgoing tide.

Anyway, tommorow looks good for some decent severe weather. The GFS looked really good for New England.

Nope. Striped bass have been loaded in the western sound for 2 months and continue to be so because of lower water temps. No need to fish out there yet.

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Sounds like a better post for the banter thread

I can't find a June banter thread here - last one I see was for April. Anyways I agree that tomorrows threat is legit with the indicies in favor of a chance of some heavy T-storms and some possibly becoming severe - heavy downpours and training of cells seems to be the biggest threat at the moment - you can feel the difference in the atmosphere the last few hours that will be leading up to this event- also looking at sat and radars sea breeze fronts might be the trigger later on in some areas just like they were friday ....

http://www.wundergro...99&avg_off=9999

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