TheTrials Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 upton is less than enthused A SEASONABLE DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW FOR PARTY SUNNY SKIES BY AFT. A WEAK SHEAR...MARGINAL CAPE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AND THEN WEAKEN AS THEY PROPAGATE SE TOWARD THE COAST. WET-BULB ZERO VALUES ARE IDEAL FOR HAIL AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON... BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED. THUS...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SHUT DOWN BY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 12z NAM tries to develop a line of storms this afternoon as well now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 12z NAM tries to develop a line of storms this afternoon as well now: LOL. bit of a stretch to call that a line of storms, no? very weak reflectivity. Showers, yes, storms? Noso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 LOL. bit of a stretch to call that a line of storms, no? very weak reflectivity. Showers, yes, storms? Noso much. I dont really look at the strength of reflectivity on models, especially the NAM. Its showing a line of rain that usually has storms in it. We'll see by 2pm if anything pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drock Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I took these pictures around 745p on the Goethel's Bridge going from NJ to Staten Island last night. Wicked looking supercell with a beautiful rainbow and CTG lighting. Great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 It looks like we'll continue with the steep mid level lapse rates and cold temps aloft today. We'll have a bit more CAPE with less clouds and more warming ahead of the storms than yesterday. So we may have a little better aerial coverage with today's storms than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 We might be on the SW fringe of more organized convective/severe threat Friday afternoon/evening. With shortwave trough and lee trough, dropping over New England, according to the NAM. There's a 30-40kt 700mb jet coming in from Upstate NY, later in the day too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 wondering what will be the lifting mechanism today.. doesn't look like there are any notable vorticity maximums... looks like heights are on the rise at 500 mb.. A lot of what develops might be orographically lifted showers/t-storms in the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 I think tomorrow definitely has the potential to be more organized than the last several days of hailers underneath the upper level low. As mentioned above there is much better forcing with the shortwave diving south. The SPC SREF actually has some questionably high 3hr severe probabilities over New England. Not surprised at the SPC slight risk -- and I think it could use some extension to the south and east in subsequent outlooks. Our area will definitely be on the fringes of the potential for a more organized threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 The12z NAM also has an enhanced pocket of 0-6km 30kt+ bulk shear for coastal regions, by 21z tomorrow CT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 wondering what will be the lifting mechanism today.. doesn't look like there are any notable vorticity maximums... looks like heights are on the rise at 500 mb.. A lot of what develops might be orographically lifted showers/t-storms in the higher terrain. it looks like a weak trough axis extending SW from the main vort and UL to our NE will swing through later. You can already see convection developing to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 it looks like a weak trough axis extending SW from the main vort and UL to our NE will swing through later. You can already see convection developing to our north. ok, that could be what it is.. I was thinking the placement of the development was right over the adirondacks and could be orographically influenced.. You can definitely see weak shortwaves at 500 mb passing just east of us and then there is one southwest of us diving into PA. The threat definitely looks better tomorrow with that potent shortwave diving into northern new england.. wish it was a bit further south, but it's potent and it's fairly close and winds at 500 mb ramp up, even down in our area.. looking forward to hopefully seeing some action tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 It will be interesting to see if some convection can develop on Saturday afternoon and evening as well. The NAM has some very weak lowered heights over Southern New England in response to a shortwave to our north. The window is small, as mid level heights are rising again by Sunday morning. But the SPC SREF has 40-50+ kts of 0-6km bulk shear which could support organized storms. The NAM has what looks like some convection along the periphery of the building mid level ridge at 00z Sunday, moving all the way from the International Border in ND/WI into the Northeast. http://www.meteo.psu...WRF_12z/f60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 The 12z NAM is also developing a mesolow, along the sea-breeze front, over NE NJ. That might support one nasty supercell later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Low-level lapse rates, today heading to extremely unstable levels. Already as of noon, between 8.5-9.0 C/km over much of NJ and NYC. Similar to last Sunday. Maybe a little higher: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 ..MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16 TO -18C AT 500MB/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG. RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SEVERAL MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 The new 12z SPC WRF hits most of the area with scattered storms later today (pretty good areal coverage) and tomorrow afternoon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 We are already see t-storms fire up, along the sea-breeze front, over NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 We are already see t-storms fire up, along the sea-breeze front, over NJ coast. Yup, new updrafts keep going up along the seabreeze front which is sitting right along the Garden State Parkway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 4:20 PM and still nothing for most of the area. Some storms actually are dissipating as they approach. There's still a couple of hours left to see something but the SPC WRF isn't going to verify with the storms it had over the area at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Upton nailed this. Said the convection would not be able to work its way towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Yeah they had us at 20% this afternoon through tomorrow.... Upton nailed this. Said the convection would not be able to work its way towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 0.35" of rain with storms here in Monmouth county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 barring some miraculous development today is pretty much done for IMO. tommorow seems like a much better day as more widespread strong/severe storms. still not confident though severe storms or even just storms making it east of NYC with some severity, but we'll see i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Pouring in the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Shower/storm popping over over northern Manhattan: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Looks like an enhanced convergence zone along the sea breeze front like the SPC WRF was hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Upton ftw as trails said they nailed this, bright and sunny the whole day no t-storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Thunderstorm at Yankee Stadium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Interesting... radar shows nothing overhead, with the nearest storm about 10 miles to the west, yet it's been pouring here for the last few minutes. 6:30 edit: absolutely pouring here now, radar shows the core of the storm is directly overhead. Thunder really isn't impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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