Chinook Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 The GFS seems to have reduced the amount of precip on the high plains, and has much less than 1.5" to 2.0" for the Front Range cities (like 0.9"). The 12z ECMWF keeps the precip pretty high, and even for Cheyenne and Laramie, too. I can't tell what the totals would be with the ECMWF , but it looks to stall longer and give us more snow than the GFS. You might want to try using adblock plus on Firefox for the Wunderground.com. You could potentially "save prefs" to show model data on Wunderground wundermaps, although this may not help your situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Blizzard of 2006 radar http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Blizzard_of_2006_radar.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So you're saying.... ? That radar loop does look an awful lot like what the models have been looking like. Then again, my wife tells me I shouldn't be so interested in models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 That was a project that I wanted to do for a while. The latest GFS looks kind of warm. Like a long period of rain at Fort Collins. I'm not sure I believe this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 We have a winter storm watch now. It looks like the GFS is predicting a temperature profile that's a little above freezing for me, at 12z Saturday. It would be kind of nice if it was all snow at that point in time. Denver-Boulder NWS discussion (3PM today) FOR THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THEGFS...ECMWF AND SREF WHICH SHOW A SLOWER...STRONGER AND MORESOUTHERLY TRACK. THIS TRACK TAKES TO UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE 4CORNERS TO WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. IF THIS PATTERN HOLDSTRUE...EXPECT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERNCOLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE FRONTRANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGINAS RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TOSNOW. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL END EARLYALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MAY LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THEPLAINS.NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE GFS SHOWSSTRONGER WINDS AND IF THIS HOLDS TRUE WOULD NEED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARDWARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. Lets see if the 4km NAM snow total is close to reality: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 And from the same AFD, this must really lead to forecasters losing hair: THE 09Z SREF MODEL MEMBERS WERE A GOOD INDICATION OF THE UNCERTAINTYWITH THIS STORM. THE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMONG THE 23 MEMBERS RANGEDFROM 1 INCH TO 19 INCHES. THE MEAN WAS 8 INCHES. THERE WAS A LARGECLUSTER OF MEMBERS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE...THEN AT THE 8 TO 10INCH RANGE AND ALSO AT THE 17 TO 19 INCH RANGE. So, "partly cloudy with a chance of blizzard." Ummmm..... Interesting also that the SNE board discussion has had some stuff about how incredibly unreliable the SREF models have been this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 And from the same AFD, this must really lead to forecasters losing hair: THE 09Z SREF MODEL MEMBERS WERE A GOOD INDICATION OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM. THE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMONG THE 23 MEMBERS RANGED FROM 1 INCH TO 19 INCHES. THE MEAN WAS 8 INCHES. THERE WAS A LARGE CLUSTER OF MEMBERS IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE...THEN AT THE 8 TO 10 INCH RANGE AND ALSO AT THE 17 TO 19 INCH RANGE. So, "partly cloudy with a chance of blizzard." Ummmm..... Interesting also that the SNE board discussion has had some stuff about how incredibly unreliable the SREF models have been this winter. Yes, the SREF's have been "****ting the bed" along with the NAM a lot lately, particularly with events involving significant cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Latest thoughts: Fort Collins will have boundary layer temperatures near freezing. The latest models still have us at 32 to 34 for some significant height (over 100 ft above ground). There have been times in the past when the models have said something like this and the situation turned out to be nearly all snow, for a long time. The low-level flow from the north, once again, seems to say the storm will focus heavy precipitation on Denver and the Palmer Divide, and too much downsloping will occur at Fort Collins (due to the Cheyenne ridge.) Why can't I catch a break? Flow from the north is common with all cold systems. The 500mb low is still pretty potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 A pleasant 2.2" here this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Latest thoughts: Fort Collins will have boundary layer temperatures near freezing. The latest models still have us at 32 to 34 for some significant height (over 100 ft above ground). There have been times in the past when the models have said something like this and the situation turned out to be nearly all snow, for a long time. The low-level flow from the north, once again, seems to say the storm will focus heavy precipitation on Denver and the Palmer Divide, and too much downsloping will occur at Fort Collins (due to the Cheyenne ridge.) Why can't I catch a break? Flow from the north is common with all cold systems. The 500mb low is still pretty potent. This year it seems like there are many more opportunities for a blockbuster- that's for sure- but they all seem to accelerate as they pass our longitude, so E-NE winds are fleeting at best! Fortunately for me we are at the far northern tip of what becomes the Palmer Divide 30 miles south, so we have done pretty well with what we have. I'm now up around 32ish inches on the season which I think is close to normal (I'm guessing average for me is about 40 inches season-to-date).Question: why is the GFS so consistent/persistent at putting a 1.5" bullseye right over Fort Morgan? Can't think of anything orographic of note there, but it is very persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 We are at 25" (compared to 37" to 40") year to date. forecast meteograms with precipitation amounts. Check out the low level jet at Cheyenne - 44 knot north wind. Fort Collins Greeley Denver Cheyenne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Nice. Windy again. Is there a GFS meteogram for APA and how do you get these? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 that is at NOAA ARL http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php APA (Arapahoe?/South Denver) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 thanks. Weird that APA (Centennial, 400 ft higher and 15 mi south of downtown and 3 mi south of me) gets that much less when it's closer to the Palmer Divide which is supposed to be the big winner. But whatever, should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 So far it has been pathetic. The models said it would snow shortly after midnight, but all we have gotten is a few flakes. We can't get 6-10" like this!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 we have 2-3" but really hard to tell... fighting melting a bit and also blowing around. For sure not the rates that would get us to 10-12" by 5 PM... we'll be lucky if we get 6. Radar looks great but you can't make a snow fort out of echoes. Was down in the southern part of Parker around 6500 ft an hour ago and they are much better off with probably 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 I'll be lucky if I get two traces. This is the most frustrating storm in the history of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 OK, I'm going to call this bust-o-rama. Just about over here with about 5 inches if you stretch it, really 4.5. NWS PNSs outside of the foothills max out at 5.5 inches. Storm is moving out 2-4 hours earlier than expected after arriving a good 6 hours later than expected. The radar looked great much of the day, but who cares. Where the heck was the snow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Sheared out southern ejection with awful northern stream influence. No models fared all that well here, but not a surprise given the two moving parts. I was never excited for this system anywhere in the plains (for winter weather) or cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 2 (or more) days ago I said "too much downsloping off the Cheyenne Ridge." and boy was I ever right. Way too much downsloping from the north and not enough generation of new snow led to very low snow totals north of Denver. The pavement never even got very wet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 "Lousy Smarch weather." -Homer Simpson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Well on the bright side we have some pleasant spring weather coming this week. With 850mb hitting +17C and southerly flow I wouldn't rule out hitting 70F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 We are getting snow in Fort Collins. It started accumulating at 6:00 or a little later. It's surprising considering the warmer temperatures today. I had previously thought that the models had this small section of snow predicted for -tomorrow-. However, a look at the models from this morning revealed that they were mainly on target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 Picture from today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Nice. Always a bonus to not have to shovel, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Pretty, even more so as compared with the wind-driven stuff we got on Saturday. Dang icy getting to work though, and highs are about 20 degrees below forecast.... brrrr... too many long walks to meetings across campus today in a thin fleece jacket. The unique thing about Western snow in the springtime is the pre-shoveled nature of the snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14, 2013 Author Share Posted March 14, 2013 Our area averaged slightly colder than normal this winter (DJF). Fort Collins was -0.6F. Checking the precipitation data, the values for precipitation are a mix of above and below normal. Since October 1st, however, the area has been below normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 The models are showing a chance of light rain Saturday and Sunday. That would be weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 High of 76F yesterday here which was a record, probably about 73F today and maybe some snow by Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 There's another fire here. It's at the state park north of Horsetooth Mountain. One warm day and we get a new fire!!! http://www.9news.com/news/article/323999/339/Fire-reported-at-Lory-State-Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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