Terpeast Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The ECMWF pulls a Denver blizzard at 192 hours. The way things have been going, I don't think we have enough luck for that. Yeah I don't think it's been a good winter there this year, but it's something to watch... if it looks really good with 24"+ snows, I'll jump at this. But pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The ECMWF pulls a Denver blizzard at 192 hours. The way things have been going, I don't think we have enough luck for that. The models will continue to show something significant for 2 more days, then diverge wildly for 3 days, then will agree on flurries and temps in the 40s, which is what we'll get. Guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 I still like what the ECMWF is showing. I checked the ECMWF ensembles today- nice looking trough and surface low at 144 h and 168 h. I won't post any images until the storm possibility gets to 144 hours... or maybe 120h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The models will continue to show something significant for 2 more days, then diverge wildly for 3 days, then will agree on flurries and temps in the 40s, which is what we'll get. Guaranteed. I just read today's AFD out of Denver and they said as much... you can tell they're a bit frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The D4-5 storm looked pretty decent on the Euro to me just from SLP/temp maps (for the Wasatch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The D4-5 storm looked pretty decent on the Euro to me just from SLP/temp maps (for the Wasatch). Yeah, its looking like a good shot of snow with the front. Probably a 2-4 incher for most with locally higher totals. It looks to stay generally unsettled for some time though with additional passing storms every few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I just read today's AFD out of Denver and they said as much... you can tell they're a bit frustrated. And... yeah. One more miss for the Front Range. Sigh. At least the farmers look like they'll get something substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 This is a GFS meteogram for just east of Denver at 104.00 W. Near the bend in I-70. 21.3mm of precipitation is 0.84", so this is fairly significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 So close! Mm, that's a lot of mm. Maybe if it would just sneak west another 50 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 There's now a winter storm warning for Denver. I bet downtown Denver could sneak a 5-6" , and other city areas 3-6". I suppose the winter weather advisory is debatable for the mountains. (They would need at least 6" for an advisory I think. Or is it 4" ?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Tomorrow's storm looks weaker, T-2 is my guess through Thursday AM. Then Saturday looks like 2-5 now and another couple inches next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 There's now a winter storm warning for Denver. I bet downtown Denver could sneak a 5-6" , and other city areas 3-6". I suppose the winter weather advisory is debatable for the mountains. (They would need at least 6" for an advisory I think. Or is it 4" ?) Watch, really, but 6" is possible- interesting. This thing is looking realy large - possibility for 6" or more over about an 800 mile area! Guess it's spring- saw bald eagles, meadowlarks and redwing blackbirds this past weekend in Cherry Creek SP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Snow has fallen in downtown Tucson and heavy snow with near blizzard conditions are occurring in Cochise County. The ULL is in SW AZ what happens in CO will depend on its trackis as it swings through NM. It's no a 4 Corners Low though it could swing up that way or track closer to ABQ. Whatever, its potent by AZ standards so could be a biggee further east. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Snow has fallen in downtown Tucson and heavy snow with near blizzard conditions are occurring in Cochise County. The ULL is in SW AZ what happens in CO will depend on its trackis as it swings through NM. It's no a 4 Corners Low though it could swing up that way or track closer to ABQ. Whatever, its potent by AZ standards so could be a biggee further east. Steve A couple nice pictures on the NWS Tucson Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Tucson.gov?ref=ts&fref=ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 First band dropped a nice 2" in the east/south Metro area here... the second looked better further south but looks kind of moth-eaten now that it has rotated up here. Nice blob down around COS that is headed north though. The radar looks like the ULL is taking a very southerly track so far, bowling its way east from Tucson. Will it turn left, or jump north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Based upon current track with the low in eastern AZ over the White Mountains, I see a track towards ABQ into the Panhandles. Climo would support this from the current position also. Light snow is ending in Tucson but continues in Nogales and through Cochise County The ULL would really have to jump in order to be over the 4 Corners.. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Minor bust here, with 4.5" of >25:1 fluff when there was 6-8" predicted. Got most of it before 10 PM last night, and predictions were for some heavy snow overnight. Guess the system just went too far south and east. Still, pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 We got 1 to 2" early (overnight, morning) yesterday and then it let up, and then we got another trace to 1" later in the day, after 5:00PM. Looks like some more snow will come into Colorado on day 2 and 3. It definitely could be over 3" on the Colorado plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 About 1.25 on the ground this morning of fresh snow. Tomorrow looks fun with heavy snow and winds gusting to 45mph. That's pretty close to blizzard criteria, might just be a duration issue. A couple more trailing waves may follow, most notably on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Hmm, interesting. Concern now for a 4 corners low possibly, with a good bit of wind, in about a day...Sat night into Sunday morning. Uncertainty for sure... NWS has a blizzard watch for 6"+ of snow in Castle Rock (18 miles south of me) and no highlights with a couple inches of snow for me. Discussion has a lot of uncertainty too. Of course, hard to be optimistic given the winter so far, but you never know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This was fun early this morning... KEKO 231236Z AUTO 34030G43KT 1/4SM VCTS +SN FZFG SQ VV011 M03/M03 A2980 RMK AO2 TSB24SNB16 PRESRR P0001 $= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 This was fun early this morning... KEKO 231236Z AUTO 34030G43KT 1/4SM VCTS +SN FZFG SQ VV011 M03/M03 A2980 RMK AO2 TSB24SNB16 PRESRR P0001 $= Some photos... Graupel shower before the main squall line Main squall Main squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 That same line is right on my doorstep, but I don't think it will be quite as intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 NWS Pueblo just issued Blizzard Warning for Southern Face of Palmer Divide, NWS Alert just went off on cell phone. Also up for Southern CO along NM border: I love it when the NWS map looks like a bag of Skittles. Giggity Giggity. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pub/ NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW7500 FT-INCLUDING...BLACK FOREST...AIR FORCE ACADEMY334 PM MST SAT FEB 23 2013...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY. THEBLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATION...NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY.* CAUSE AND TIMING...A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THEN INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...5 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENSIVE DRIFTING SNOW.* WIND...NORTH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 This was fun early this morning... KEKO 231236Z AUTO 34030G43KT 1/4SM VCTS +SN FZFG SQ VV011 M03/M03 A2980 RMK AO2 TSB24SNB16 PRESRR P0001 $= Do you know they have a new GRLevel3 2.10? It allows you to use more of your computer screen to see the radar data. Looks like the short range models are beefing up the snow totals for the Front Range cities. Denver is over 8" or 10" on this 4km NAM image. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 NWS Denver ALL OF THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOWEVENT. THEY INCLUDE...NEUTRAL STABILITY PROFILES...AVERAGE OF25-30 KTS OF NNE UPSLOPE FLOW...DEEP UPSLOPE COMPONENT WELL ABOVEMOUNTAIN TOP...GOOD MICROPHYSICS WITH LARGE OMEGA THROUGH THEDENDRITIC GROWTH REGION...AND A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE Q-GVERTICAL MOTION. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE UPGRADE OF BLIZZARD WATCHESTO WARNING...WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS...ANDMOST OTHER LOCATIONS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW ANDBLOWING SNOW. THE OVERALL BLENDING USING A MAJORITY OF THE ECMWFWITH A LITTLE BIT OF MESOSCALE/SREF MODELS SUPPORT THE FOLLOWINGAMOUNTS...6-10 INCHES FOR DENVER/BOULDER AREA...8-12 INCHES PALMERDIVIDE...7-14 INCHES FOOTHILLS...AND 4-8 INCHES THROUGH SOUTHERNWELD...MORGAN...TOWARD WASHINGTON/LINCOLN COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 And first legit WSW for the area this season. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Nothing yet but radar shows the front/snow right on my doorstep. Then I saw this: MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER/SLOWER WITH A BITMORE SNOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE SNOW ENDING LATER. LATEST RUNSSUGGEST ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE DENVER AREA SUNDAYEVENING...WITH SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING 7-14 INCHES ACROSS DENVERAND SEVERAL MEMBERS OVER 20 INCHES AT KAPA. I'm 3 miles N of APA so that would be fun. Edit: just got windy wth snow flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 I got a dusting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Now I think I can finally say I have some deep layer frontogenesis at work-- near me! with snowflakes coming down. What a concept! Something that forces precipitation--and not dry air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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