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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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So a couple of your pictures are of sleet on top of ice. (I think.) That's cool. Hopefully you didn't slip.

 

It was a mix, it started as FZRA then mixed with PL, but never changed over to all PL.  So the little "ice drops" (as I saw in a tweet about it this morning!) got frozen to the surfaces they landed on as rain kept falling on them simultaneously.  Not an unusual event for New Jersey, but for the high desert of Nevada (where its usually rain or snow, or sometimes graupel), extremely rare.  There were a lot of accidents this morning, some schools were closed, some injuries from slipping on the ice too.  I had a few loose footings but nothing that made me tumble.  In fact, once the pavement got icy enough I started doing a little intentional sliding on it ;)

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When we moved from MA 2.5 years ago we were somehow possessed to bring most of a bag of salt, that would take us maybe a month of winter to use there given the abundant ZR/PL. We have not used it here since we moved. Amazing. I could send it your way... :)

Thanks, but for the first time in two weeks it has now gotten above freezing here, so no need :)

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Last night it rained in Denver. Not even freezing rain, just rain. DIA got 0.01 inch. I couldn't find the last time it rained in January in Denver. Certainly not last year per NWS but couldn't find older data. This is highly unusual, no?

 

This is only my fourth winter here, but I've never seen it before. I was driving down Boulder Canyon as the precip was moving in and the rain/snow line was all the way up to around 7400ft.

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Last night it rained in Denver. Not even freezing rain, just rain. DIA got 0.01 inch. I couldn't find the last time it rained in January in Denver. Certainly not last year per NWS but couldn't find older data. This is highly unusual, no?

They had a little rain in 2011, I think.  Not much, but it might've been 0.01".  Then it changed to freezing rain and then snow.

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In the traditional winter months, (December through February,) I have seen drizzle happen very lightly maybe 3 or 4 times, and that was just before it changed over to snow. I think each time this happened there was at least a couple of inches of snow right after it. I have not really seen rain in these months. Of course, in November and March I have seen rain a relative few times.

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We got about 2.5 or so here, but I see SLC had about 10. Moving on to the next storm.

 

Looking like 3-6 inches, at least that's my forecast. I see NWS is saying 3-7 with locally more possible in my area. Guess we will see. How about that blizzard warning in Nevada though, don't see that often.

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4 new inches of snow here, a few more inches expected tomorrow. My forecast is 2-4 inches. Still a few light flurries falling and 23F at the moment. These WAA patterns almost always favor me over SLC whereas the CAA seem to favor them. In the long run its better there though because they get more snow going into a cold spell and I get more coming out.

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the ECMWF (and other models) show a West Coast trough moving to Utah, the Four Corners, and Colorado. And boom, a Front Range snowstorm pops out a few hours later. This is for Saturday/Sunday (0300z Sunday and 0900z Sunday). We should keep a watch on this one.

 

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The east to west flow on this one will probably drop a lot less snow over here and a lot more over there with upslope effect. I know the NWS here is even talking about a downslope wind event being possible but those never effect me.

 

I"m going to be in Deer Valley this weekend.  I'm guessing that the easterly flow will benefit me being on that side of the Wasatch?

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I'm going to be in Deer Valley this weekend.  I'm guessing that the easterly flow will benefit me being on that side of the Wasatch?

I don't know a lot about that area but I'd guess that the downslope effect will be much less noticeable up there so yeah, probably. Looks like Friday will be more snowy on the Wasatch front than Saturday but up in the mountains both days look pretty good.

 

Here is a nice loop for precip,

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_x_pcp3+///3

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Storm cancel AGAIN???

I may be forced to move back East if this trend continues. Maddening. Meanwhile.... check this out. (NWS BOX AFD)

 

***POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD TO IMPACT MUCH OF
  SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO SAT***

***1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
  EXCEPT AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST   WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
  MIXING***

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A POTENTIALLY
HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD THAT WILL IMPACT MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WE ARE CONFIDENT IN MUCH OF THE REGION
RECEIVING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.

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Things are not looking that good. The GFS and NAM  now show that the 500mb and 700mb low go a little bit north of us. It looks like we will be somewhat warm/dry before the upper low arrives, and all areas east of the Divide will get some weak downsloping (15 to 35 knots?) just after the low gets to us. That is good news for Wyoming, but not east Colorado.

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Things are not looking that good. The GFS and NAM  now show that the 500mb and 700mb low go a little bit north of us. It looks like we will be somewhat warm/dry before the upper low arrives, and all areas east of the Divide will get some weak downsloping (15 to 35 knots?) just after the low gets to us. That is good news for Wyoming, but not east Colorado.

Sorry, but it again reminds me of last winter here. Couldn't win.

 

We are looking at a few inches each of Fri, Sat, Sun so hopefully it turns out ok.

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NWS saying 3-6 for the Wasatch front through Saturday night with some slight additional snow Sunday.

 

To me this looks like three distinct waves of moisture. The most dynamic part is Friday with probably 1-3 inches of quick, heavy snow. Some thunder is possible. 700mb flow is S-SW so I should do well in this pattern compared to other areas.

 

Saturday evening wave two arrives, it looks like NW flow which favors SLC area but its longer duration so it may drop more snow. 1-4 inches.

 

Then a borderline arctic airmass moves in Sunday with NE flow and some light snow possible. Much colder after that. Trace-1 inch there.

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Dang it.

 

Later tonight, northerly winds will also increase across the plains as a deep surface low
develops over east central Colorado. Winds gusting up to 45 mph
will combine with falling snow to produce blizzard conditions over
the northeast corner of the state. A blizzard warning is in effect
due to the hazardous conditions that are expected to develop.

 

post-1182-0-91722200-1360433513_thumb.pn

 

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