Chinook Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 Its not raining, but it is foggy; this is what we call a "false tip". Wow you must be sweating inside. Looks like the GFS has several inches for the mountains. It's hard to tell if it really will bring much snow east of the mountains or not http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=FTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Wow you must be sweating inside. Looks like the GFS has several inches for the mountains. It's hard to tell if it really will bring much snow east of the mountains or not http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=FTG It runs hot inside, it was 76 or 77 at the time, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It runs hot inside, it was 76 or 77 at the time, really. My VP II runs inside warm too as I have it in my computer cabinet. But 76-77 is too warm for me, I like it in the high 60's. Trolling west coast threads as I am wanting to move there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well, what was the previous forecast? Only a fool changes a forecast for several days away from a pop of 10 or 20 to a pop of 80 or 90. Well, obviously you know more (I took a grand total of one met class, way back when), but if at a given time people think most places will get a few inches of measurable snow, I'd sort of think that the POP for anything measurable would be more than 50/50. Right? Trying to learn here. Previous forecast IIRC was pretty similar, maybe a bit lower. And it's the same today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well, obviously you know more (I took a grand total of one met class, way back when), but if at a given time people think most places will get a few inches of measurable snow, I'd sort of think that the POP for anything measurable would be more than 50/50. Right? Trying to learn here. Previous forecast IIRC was pretty similar, maybe a bit lower. And it's the same today. The local NWS doesn't usually go higher than 50% pops more than a couple days out unless it really looks like a sure thing. As it is, the last couple model runs have toned this thing down...looking more like a 1-2" event, if that for most places. But still time for that to change. Actually looking like the UT folks could do a little better with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 My VP II runs inside warm too as I have it in my computer cabinet. But 76-77 is too warm for me, I like it in the high 60's. Trolling west coast threads as I am wanting to move there. 76-77 is a bit form for me, too, but I don't have a thermostat in here. Gotta control it manually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well, obviously you know more (I took a grand total of one met class, way back when), but if at a given time people think most places will get a few inches of measurable snow, I'd sort of think that the POP for anything measurable would be more than 50/50. Right? Trying to learn here. Previous forecast IIRC was pretty similar, maybe a bit lower. And it's the same today. I don't know what the person who actually forecast that day would do (everyone's a bit different), but if I thought the realistic chance of precipitation was 60%, and I inherited a forecast of 10%, the most I might increase it to would probably be 30 or 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 MEX MOS has 2 degrees for me on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The local NWS doesn't usually go higher than 50% pops more than a couple days out unless it really looks like a sure thing. As it is, the last couple model runs have toned this thing down...looking more like a 1-2" event, if that for most places. But still time for that to change. Actually looking like the UT folks could do a little better with this one. Precip is still looking pretty unimpressive but the cold does look a lot sharper than it had been. Probably about an inch in most valley locations with the arctic front followed by highs near 30 on Sunday. I do notice though that models are now showing another 1-2 on Monday evening and perhaps another 1-3 towards the following Thursday. So nothing big, but lots of nickle and dime events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Precip is still looking pretty unimpressive but the cold does look a lot sharper than it had been. Probably about an inch in most valley locations with the arctic front followed by highs near 30 on Sunday. I do notice though that models are now showing another 1-2 on Monday evening and perhaps another 1-3 towards the following Thursday. So nothing big, but lots of nickle and dime events. Models have really cut off the precip here. Looking dry and cold for the most part, now. But still a favorable pattern for snow chances and cold overall for the forseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 I hate drouggts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Precip is still looking pretty unimpressive but the cold does look a lot sharper than it had been. Probably about an inch in most valley locations with the arctic front followed by highs near 30 on Sunday. I do notice though that models are now showing another 1-2 on Monday evening and perhaps another 1-3 towards the following Thursday. So nothing big, but lots of nickle and dime events. Wow, 12Z GFS yesterday had several inches for the front range. Today's runs look very dry (but colder, as you said). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I hate drouggts. I always say they're my least favorite natural disasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I always say they're my least favorite natural disasters. Floods are exciting. Droughts are boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 OK, time to break out the really bad song: (help welcome) To be sung while enjoying a pint or three of your favorite beverage. Colorado Christmas 2012 Oh, the weather outside is ... mild.... And the sky- is so- ...partly cloudy... So, since we can't buy no snow, Let's sit on the porch and drink another beer. It doesn't show signs of stopping, And the farmers can't get a single crop in, So instead of carrying on on Americanwx, Let's sit on the porch and drink another beer. [need a B verse ] Oh, the wheat is slowly dying, And the skiers all are crying, So while we all wait for snow, Let's sit on the porch... and drink another beer. No copyright needed- this one ain't good enough for that. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Lol, well at least the weather doesn't look to be mild for a little while. And the mountains should get some more snow with this system, even if the plains don't see much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Cloud tops are cooling per the IR satellite. Also, I have noticed the radar starting to fill in a little bit. A few flurries are falling now, 34F at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 It is 41 at my place. The temps are starting to level off and maybe have dropped a couple of degrees. We are getting some windy conditions (15mph+) coming in off the Cheyenne Ridge. I am seeing lots of gray over the mountains-- a few sheets of snow showers. Looks like we will be 4 to 8F below normal for the next 5 days, then potentially near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Been snowing lightly for a while now but its not adding up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I was just in north Boulder and a few flurries were starting to blow down off the hills. It's been snowing pretty good in the foothills for the past couple hours, and now it looks like the radar is starting to fill in a bit to the north. Temp is down to 38 after being up to 45 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 2 or 3 inches today - ~10" at the resort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 2 or 3 inches today - ~10" at the resort. Got nothing yesterday here, but its snowing pretty heavy right now, 23F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Enjoy, not much here, about 0.8", but good 'n' cold all day today. Feels more seasonal anyway! Ski areas did fair with this one, should help to open a little more terrain especially if we can get a couple more impulses out of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 I saw a bit of graupel with partly cloudy skies before the front came through yesterday. Then there was blowing dirt with wind gusts over 30mph. No snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Saw a few flurries today here in the high desert. Nothing exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Looking at the GFS ensembles 850mb temp anomalies, it is showing a very near normal almost everywhere in our country from now to 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 High of 30 today. Ended up with a half inch of snow this morning which survived just fine. Its 23F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 COS broke a record today. 000 SXUS75 KPUB 100032 RERCOS RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 0530 PM MST SUN DEC 09 2012 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL AT COLORADO SPRINGS COLORADO... SNOWFALL AT COLORADO SPRINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TOTALLED 3.3 INCHES TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL OF 3.1 INCHES SET IN 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 COS broke a record today. 000 SXUS75 KPUB 100032 RERCOS RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 0530 PM MST SUN DEC 09 2012 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL AT COLORADO SPRINGS COLORADO... SNOWFALL AT COLORADO SPRINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TOTALLED 3.3 INCHES TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL OF 3.1 INCHES SET IN 1994. They did a lot better than the Denver area. Just Tr-1" most places in the metro. Just about .25" at my house. High of 26 and down to 10 already tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Only had flurries in Boulder. The beat goes on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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