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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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Well, what was the previous forecast? Only a fool changes a forecast for several days away from a pop of 10 or 20 to a pop of 80 or 90.

Well, obviously you know more (I took a grand total of one met class, way back when), but if at a given time people think most places will get a few inches of measurable snow, I'd sort of think that the POP for anything measurable would be more than 50/50. Right? Trying to learn here. Previous forecast IIRC was pretty similar, maybe a bit lower. And it's the same today.

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Well, obviously you know more (I took a grand total of one met class, way back when), but if at a given time people think most places will get a few inches of measurable snow, I'd sort of think that the POP for anything measurable would be more than 50/50. Right? Trying to learn here. Previous forecast IIRC was pretty similar, maybe a bit lower. And it's the same today.

The local NWS doesn't usually go higher than 50% pops more than a couple days out unless it really looks like a sure thing.

As it is, the last couple model runs have toned this thing down...looking more like a 1-2" event, if that for most places. But still time for that to change. Actually looking like the UT folks could do a little better with this one.

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My VP II runs inside warm too as I have it in my computer cabinet. But 76-77 is too warm for me, I like it in the high 60's. :shiver:

Trolling west coast threads as I am wanting to move there.

76-77 is a bit form for me, too, but I don't have a thermostat in here. Gotta control it manually :axe:

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Well, obviously you know more (I took a grand total of one met class, way back when), but if at a given time people think most places will get a few inches of measurable snow, I'd sort of think that the POP for anything measurable would be more than 50/50. Right? Trying to learn here. Previous forecast IIRC was pretty similar, maybe a bit lower. And it's the same today.

I don't know what the person who actually forecast that day would do (everyone's a bit different), but if I thought the realistic chance of precipitation was 60%, and I inherited a forecast of 10%, the most I might increase it to would probably be 30 or 40%.

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The local NWS doesn't usually go higher than 50% pops more than a couple days out unless it really looks like a sure thing.

As it is, the last couple model runs have toned this thing down...looking more like a 1-2" event, if that for most places. But still time for that to change. Actually looking like the UT folks could do a little better with this one.

Precip is still looking pretty unimpressive but the cold does look a lot sharper than it had been. Probably about an inch in most valley locations with the arctic front followed by highs near 30 on Sunday. I do notice though that models are now showing another 1-2 on Monday evening and perhaps another 1-3 towards the following Thursday. So nothing big, but lots of nickle and dime events.

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Precip is still looking pretty unimpressive but the cold does look a lot sharper than it had been. Probably about an inch in most valley locations with the arctic front followed by highs near 30 on Sunday. I do notice though that models are now showing another 1-2 on Monday evening and perhaps another 1-3 towards the following Thursday. So nothing big, but lots of nickle and dime events.

Models have really cut off the precip here. Looking dry and cold for the most part, now. But still a favorable pattern for snow chances and cold overall for the forseeable future.

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Precip is still looking pretty unimpressive but the cold does look a lot sharper than it had been. Probably about an inch in most valley locations with the arctic front followed by highs near 30 on Sunday. I do notice though that models are now showing another 1-2 on Monday evening and perhaps another 1-3 towards the following Thursday. So nothing big, but lots of nickle and dime events.

Wow, 12Z GFS yesterday had several inches for the front range. Today's runs look very dry (but colder, as you said).

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OK, time to break out the really bad song: (help welcome)

To be sung while enjoying a pint or three of your favorite beverage.

Colorado Christmas 2012

Oh, the weather outside is ... mild....

And the sky- is so- ...partly cloudy...

So, since we can't buy no snow,

Let's sit on the porch and drink another beer.

It doesn't show signs of stopping,

And the farmers can't get a single crop in,

So instead of carrying on on Americanwx,

Let's sit on the porch and drink another beer.

[need a B verse ]

Oh, the wheat is slowly dying,

And the skiers all are crying,

So while we all wait for snow,

Let's sit on the porch... and drink another beer. :axe:

No copyright needed- this one ain't good enough for that.

Cheers! :beer:

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It is 41 at my place. The temps are starting to level off and maybe have dropped a couple of degrees. We are getting some windy conditions (15mph+) coming in off the Cheyenne Ridge. I am seeing lots of gray over the mountains-- a few sheets of snow showers. Looks like we will be 4 to 8F below normal for the next 5 days, then potentially near normal.

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COS broke a record today.

000

SXUS75 KPUB 100032

RERCOS

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO

0530 PM MST SUN DEC 09 2012

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL AT COLORADO SPRINGS COLORADO...

SNOWFALL AT COLORADO SPRINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TOTALLED 3.3 INCHES

TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL OF

3.1 INCHES SET IN 1994.

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COS broke a record today.

000

SXUS75 KPUB 100032

RERCOS

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO

0530 PM MST SUN DEC 09 2012

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL AT COLORADO SPRINGS COLORADO...

SNOWFALL AT COLORADO SPRINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TOTALLED 3.3 INCHES

TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL OF

3.1 INCHES SET IN 1994.

They did a lot better than the Denver area. Just Tr-1" most places in the metro. Just about .25" at my house.

High of 26 and down to 10 already tonight.

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