tacoman25 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Finally some snow forecasted here in the Wasatch. 4-8 from the first s/w and 5-10 from the 2nd. My guess is these estimates are a bit conservative. I'm new to the western U.S., do mountain forecasts often run a bit conservative? I know in VT the forecasts for the most favored areas would often run a bit conservative. Welcome to the Mountain West! Had no idea you were moving out here. There is so much variability unpredictability with the weather in the high country, accurate snow forecasts are very difficult. Terrain can play a huge role. I don't know if I'd say they tend to run conservative necessarily, they just have high bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I've been gathering NM SNOTEL data for the Santa Fe area for a project and the current year can really be compared to 2006 in terms of deficit in the recorded ears of the sites I've gathered. 2006 was absolutely abysmal in terms of snowfall here. Its even more depressing when you look at two weeks worth of model output and don't see a damn thing to be happy about. There has never been a year in the recorded data that has started off this bad and come out anywhere near normal. At this point I believe we're going to be locked in for one of the worst snowpacks in Santa Fe history. I believe 2006-07 was one of the best snow winters in NM history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I believe 2006-07 was one of the best snow winters in NM history. I'm guessing that by "2006", he means 2005-2006, not 2006-2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Welcome to the Mountain West! Had no idea you were moving out here. There is so much variability unpredictability with the weather in the high country, accurate snow forecasts are very difficult. Terrain can play a huge role. I don't know if I'd say they tend to run conservative necessarily, they just have high bust potential. Thanks! Been out here a week now, it's great. High bust potential is probably a better description of what went on in VT too.. hard to pin point lake effect and orographic banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Finally some snow forecasted here in the Wasatch. 4-8 from the first s/w and 5-10 from the 2nd. My guess is these estimates are a bit conservative. I'm new to the western U.S., do mountain forecasts often run a bit conservative? I know in VT the forecasts for the most favored areas would often run a bit conservative. Another Utah poster! Welcome. I never ski or board so I have little idea on the mountain forecasts. If I had to guess I would just say snow forecasts are difficult out here so it goes both ways. At any rate the system last night was too warm to produce a lot of snow in the mountains. I think Sunday nights storm looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 Burned Forest Nov 24th sunset with lenticular clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Speaking of burned forests, the Fern Lake Fire blazed through the Moraine Park section of Rocky Mountain National Park last night. Shrubs and grassland primarily, so I'm sure it didn't take long with 70+mph wind gusts. Still, it's sad to see so much of the park affected, even though it'll be good for the land in the long run. Here's a shot of the area, with Moraine Park in the foreground and the dense forest behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Speaking of burned forests, the Fern Lake Fire blazed through the Moraine Park section of Rocky Mountain National Park last night. Say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Say what? Eh? I'm not sure what's wrong with that statement. The fire has been around for a month and a half but it blew up last night due to the high winds in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Eh? I'm not sure what's wrong with that statement. The fire has been around for a month and a half but it blew up last night due to the high winds in the park. OK, was wondering if you mispoke or if that's what is really going on. Had no idea. Seems ridiculously late for a fire to be raging... guess that's just what kind of year its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Speaking of burned forests, the Fern Lake Fire blazed through the Moraine Park section of Rocky Mountain National Park last night. Shrubs and grassland primarily, so I'm sure it didn't take long with 70+mph wind gusts. Still, it's sad to see so much of the park affected, even though it'll be good for the land in the long run. Here's a shot of the area, with Moraine Park in the foreground and the dense forest behind. I could smell that when I was in town today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Is anyone else alarmed by the start to this "winter" season? It's December and I can look out my window to a 95% snow-free view of Mount Evans and there's no significant hope in the entire 384 hour GFS runs. Would hate to see this continue through the winter, as many many people would have water woes. On the bright side, maybe people will want to sell their slopeside condos for less and I could buy a weekend home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 OK, was wondering if you mispoke or if that's what is really going on. Had no idea. Seems ridiculously late for a fire to be raging... guess that's just what kind of year its been. No worries. Absolutely, it is just that kind of year. Fortunately lightning is no longer a concern but since it is so dry out there, any spark can cause problems. There really isn't any snow in sight either, so the Fern Lake fire is going to be a battle now to keep it contained inside of the park boundaries. And yeah Nomad, it's been a ridiculously poor start to the snow year, which sucks given how dry last spring and the summer both were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Is anyone else alarmed by the start to this "winter" season? It's December and I can look out my window to a 95% snow-free view of Mount Evans and there's no significant hope in the entire 384 hour GFS runs. Would hate to see this continue through the winter, as many many people would have water woes. On the bright side, maybe people will want to sell their slopeside condos for less and I could buy a weekend home. It's actually looking like a good shot at some snow for the area in about a week. The GFS and Euro have some major differences on how the pattern unfolds, but both show it getting much colder and less ridgy for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Every city in the country is above normal at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 It's actually looking like a good shot at some snow for the area in about a week. The GFS and Euro have some major differences on how the pattern unfolds, but both show it getting much colder and less ridgy for sure. I agree. Models are showing some snowy stuff for Colorado on about Sunday (12/9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 It's actually looking like a good shot at some snow for the area in about a week. The GFS and Euro have some major differences on how the pattern unfolds, but both show it getting much colder and less ridgy for sure. I hope it pans out. We had a few false alarms in October and November. It seems we will definitely turn colder, but moisture is always a question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I hope it pans out. We had a few false alarms in October and November. It seems we will definitely turn colder, but moisture is always a question mark. Can't say how much, but can just about guarantee we see snowfall between 12/9 and 12/15 with this upcoming pattern. It will definitely be cold, and not just colder than it's been but colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Looking good for at least something here and quite chilly as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 I am starting to get way more impressed with the storm system on Saturday or Sunday. The ECMWF now takes a closed low into Arizona after bringing it down from Idaho. I suppose there's a chance we could be talking about blizzard for the Front Range and SW Kansas. The GFS shows it to be a little earlier, and seems to have some of the heavier snow in New Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Looking likely that we see at least 2-4" around here Sat night/Sun, and highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s until at least Tuesday. Going to be quite a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Looking likely that we see at least 2-4" around here Sat night/Sun, and highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s until at least Tuesday. Going to be quite a change. BRING IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Would be great. BOU is pretty meh about the snow parts of it so far, it seems like. Thinking cold hard brown ground for Monday but hoping otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Would be great. BOU is pretty meh about the snow parts of it so far, it seems like. Thinking cold hard brown ground for Monday but hoping otherwise. I think most places will see some snow. Sounds like the NWS does as well. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND. AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND MOISTURE SET UP EXPECT SNOW TO START SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVER COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BRING THE SNOW TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SNOW MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yeah, but POPs in the graphical forecast (OK so I am not real good at finding the more sophisticated stuff quickly, especially at work) don't go over 50% for any 12 hour period. So, ?? Guess it's been so long since we've had a good solid >6" that I won't really be satisfied till that happens. Gaaaaahhh. My new tires are waiting for a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yeah, but POPs in the graphical forecast (OK so I am not real good at finding the more sophisticated stuff quickly, especially at work) don't go over 50% for any 12 hour period. So, ?? Guess it's been so long since we've had a good solid >6" that I won't really be satisfied till that happens. Gaaaaahhh. My new tires are waiting for a challenge. Well, what was the previous forecast? Only a fool changes a forecast for several days away from a pop of 10 or 20 to a pop of 80 or 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I have whiplash trying to keep up with the model swings for the incoming trough. One consistency has been much cooler, but how much and if we get snow are questions still. I am thinking 1-2 inches fall saturday but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Its not raining, but it is foggy; this is what we call a "false tip". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Wow, I don't remember EKO reporting visibility below 1/4 mile before, at least not since I've been here. Maybe it has, but I don't remember it... KEKO 061556Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM FG VV002 02/02 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP199 T00170017= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Finally shaping up to be a more active pattern for the Rockies! Looks like the approaching positively tilted trough presently diving into the Pac NW will impact the region for the weekend will produce the most widespread and coldest winter storm so far this season. Positive vorticity advection will be maximized over southern NM, inducing surface cyclogenesis over the NM / W TX boarder and a long fetch of low-level easterlies north of the cyclone extending into the foothills of CO. This is a favorable setup for persistent moist upslope flow for the eastern Rockies, and is great news for recovering the snow-water deficit. It appears that the trough just isn't quite sharp enough or deep enough to generate explosive lee cyclogenesis necessary to produce a foot or more in Denver. Stronger pressure falls would be necessary to produce a strong ageostrophic wind towards the region of cyclogenesis and advect the higher theta-e airmass over S TX into the picture. This time the moisture source region is a bit further north. On the backside of the trough, persistent northwesterly flow down the Wyoming basin will become topographically trapped and forced to ascend between the CO plateaus and the southern Rocky Mtns. This should result in on and off snowfalls for the better part of the next week in the mountains near Steamboat and north of Glenwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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