Chinook Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 I was seeing some rain, but now it is graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 We had 8 inches of snow on the ground this morning. Several trees down and tons of large limbs all over the place. I saw several cars that were damaged. It was really wet snow too, we had 1.46 in liquid fall. Thats huge for here too, about 1/13 of our average annual precip. Could get some more tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 First inch of snow of the season here in Elko this morning... first inch of snow on the weather station since I set it up in the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 One more inch of snow fell this morning, making for a storm total of 9 inches. I am hoping for more soon but models don't look encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2012 Author Share Posted November 11, 2012 I got about 1.5" of snow after a few minutes of graupel yesterday. It mostly melted on the streets. It was really crusty on my car, since it dropped into the low 20's by 8:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 We had a good inch at least of graupel last night around 6 PM, with 15-20 minutes of thunder and lightning- looked like my car was covered with Dippin' Dots but they didn't taste like much- then another inch and a half of fluff till around 11 PM. Most of it stayed around today with a high of 31. Brr. So much for cutting the lawn that last time... have to wait till next weekend unless I want to cut it by flashlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 A little slow on posting these... been busy with the conference. here's some pics from SLC the last few days. probably have 8" or so here after some very heavy LES at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Some of the benches got 2 1/2 feet. A guy I know's wife was posting about it on FB, he tricked her into moving into one of the snowiest parts of the metro area. Lets just say, she hates snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Some of the benches got 2 1/2 feet. A guy I know's wife was posting about it on FB, he tricked her into moving into one of the snowiest parts of the metro area. Lets just say, she hates snow If I stick around here I plan to move to the snowiest part of the metro, luckily that is also the nicest part as a whole. Hopefully my future wife will be able to tolerate snow.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 There is a general split among the GFS ensembles for the period 5-8 days out. Some are going cold and snowy, others cool and rainy. I really don't know which will be right but generally things have trended better the last 1-2 days so hopefully the cold solutions verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Boring. Dry. Warm. Visions of last fall. Last year's Gulf of AK low morphed into the very slightly south and east of the Gulf of AK low. Holy persistence Batman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 There is a general split among the GFS ensembles for the period 5-8 days out. Some are going cold and snowy, others cool and rainy. I really don't know which will be right but generally things have trended better the last 1-2 days so hopefully the cold solutions verify. Looks like the boring solution. At least we should get some showers. The inversion really became noticable today with very hazy skies. Most of the snow is gone now but several inches remain in shady areas. That too should disappear in another two days I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 I can't believe I'm saying this, but it looks like the Front Range will be free from the really cold stuff for almost the entire month of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I can't believe I'm saying this, but it looks like the Front Range will be free from the really cold stuff for almost the entire month of November. We certainly had some fun about a week ago, and some patches of snow remain, but at this point the general picture is the same. The 00z GFS is just plain awful, absolutely nothing to look forward too. Just mild and quiet conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 As Blizzard knows from the Western forum, I've been saying for awhile I think our fun (if you think cold/snow is fun) will come later in the winter...mainly in Jan/Feb. This is based on how the fall pattern has evolved and similar years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 After several dry/boring runs for the Central & Southern Rockies, the 12z GFS shows some good storms plowing through in the 10-15 day period... Fluke run or actually possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 I was looking at the 12z GFS. By golly, I think we found some arctic air at day 8. It starts getting pushed in here in Colorado on day 7. This run of the GFS has a lot of snow for Wyoming at day 7-8. (November 26-27). Meanwhile, today's 0z ECMWF has some -24C air in Montana on day 8. Wow. That ECMWF run would mean some big snow for us on day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I was looking at the 12z GFS. By golly, I think we found some arctic air at day 8. It starts getting pushed in here in Colorado on day 7. This run of the GFS has a lot of snow for Wyoming at day 7-8. (November 26-27). Meanwhile, today's 0z ECMWF has some -24C air in Montana on day 8. Wow. That ECMWF run would mean some big snow for us on day 8-9. Fingers crossed while doing the snow dance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Watching the same thing! Pretty consistent that some kind of trough pushes in but the details are of course anybodys guess at this point. I think todays 12z was the coldest of any model output I've seen for me this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Looks like both the ECMWF and the GFS are backing off a bit. The GFS wants to keep the storm further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Bummer. Yesterday's models gave hope just so today's could take it away. Looks like we'll be into December with no significant snows in the mountains. Very disappointing from a skiing perspective, but also a bad start from a water supply for next summer perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 00z gfs trended back in the right direction, but the extended is completely whack. We will see I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I continue to think that the pattern probably won't turn real favorable for cold/snow in our region until late December at the earliest. Mid January to early February looks like the best time period for significant winter weather based on the signals I've been following. Patience Blizzard...I definitely think you'll be rewarded down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This pattern is abysmal. 12Z GFS Total Snowfall to 384 hours (16 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Well, the 18Z GFS says "not so fast my friend" and gives a glimmer of hope: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 12Z holds on to the hope: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 This is a bad start to the snow year. Fort Collins only had a couple of inches of snow in November. By my estimation, Fort Collins has about 5.5" so far in Oct. and Nov. The mountains have had only a few inches too. I assume the Colorado mountains are at 30% of normal snowpack. I forecast the drought to continue through the winter, so our Front Range region will not get out of the D1 drought condition. That is, our area will not improve to D0 or "no drought" by the end of winter. Most of Colorado is D2 to D3 anyway, and this may not even improve to D1. I was hoping for a strong El Nino to load up the Great Plains with greater than normal rain, and Colorado with greater than normal snow. It isn't going to be a strong El Nino condition. I don't believe the Plains drought will be highly changed. D0 or "no drought" by April 1st would be remarkable progress for most of the Great Plains, but I don't think this will happen. Things should stay D2 to D4. Perhaps some regional improvements will happen up north in the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I've been gathering NM SNOTEL data for the Santa Fe area for a project and the current year can really be compared to 2006 in terms of deficit in the recorded ears of the sites I've gathered. 2006 was absolutely abysmal in terms of snowfall here. Its even more depressing when you look at two weeks worth of model output and don't see a damn thing to be happy about. There has never been a year in the recorded data that has started off this bad and come out anywhere near normal. At this point I believe we're going to be locked in for one of the worst snowpacks in Santa Fe history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 This is a bad start to the snow year. Fort Collins only had a couple of inches of snow in November. By my estimation, Fort Collins has about 5.5" so far in Oct. and Nov. The mountains have had only a few inches too. I assume the Colorado mountains are at 30% of normal snowpack. I forecast the drought to continue through the winter, so our Front Range region will not get out of the D1 drought condition. That is, our area will not improve to D0 or "no drought" by the end of winter. Most of Colorado is D2 to D3 anyway, and this may not even improve to D1. I was hoping for a strong El Nino to load up the Great Plains with greater than normal rain, and Colorado with greater than normal snow. It isn't going to be a strong El Nino condition. I don't believe the Plains drought will be highly changed. D0 or "no drought" by April 1st would be remarkable progress for most of the Great Plains, but I don't think this will happen. Things should stay D2 to D4. Perhaps some regional improvements will happen up north in the Dakotas. You can get snow water content anomalies in real-time here: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswe.html Currently the 4 reporting stations in CO are in the 25-50% range, so your assumption was pretty good! Bad news for ski resorts and improving drought conditions alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Finally some snow forecasted here in the Wasatch. 4-8 from the first s/w and 5-10 from the 2nd. My guess is these estimates are a bit conservative. I'm new to the western U.S., do mountain forecasts often run a bit conservative? I know in VT the forecasts for the most favored areas would often run a bit conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.