Chinook Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 We are starting a new Mountain West Discussion because the old one has 500 posts. Denver broke a record with a high of 94 yesterday. There is apparently a new fire near Red Feather Lakes Rd. in Larimer County. Fort Collins yearly total precipitation is 2.90". Sounds like a desert! Eastern Colorado is on the Day 2 outlook, 15%. Also we have a day 3 outlook of 5%. It looks like deep layer shear could be 30 knots or greater today, tomorrow, and Thursday. Maybe will end up having some sort of discussion of severe weather. At this point, anything would make things more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 Downslope SE wind gust at Thermopolis WY. This is a dry downslope damaging wind, 50 gusting to 58 knots. You don't usually see that. KTBX 051935Z AUTO 14050G58KT 10SM CLR 25/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Damagng downslope winds are fairly common in the lee of the Huachcucas in SE AZ. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 5, 2012 Author Share Posted June 5, 2012 The fact that it was a southeast wind was surprising. Wyoming gets westerly winds like almost no place in the world. That would be downsloping from 8000 to 4500ft from SE to NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 917 AM MDT WED JUN 6 2012 .UPDATE... && .SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A 19Z SPECIAL UPPER AIR LAUNCH PER COORDINATION WITH SPC. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL TRY AND PIN DOWN SOME DETAILS A LITTLE BIT MORE. SURFACE FRONTAL PUSH BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM CASTLE ROCK TO WIGGINS LINE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20KT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BEGIN ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE STRONGEST STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MORGAN...LOGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES. SURFACE BASED CAPES FROM 12Z SOUNDING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING UPWARDS OF 2500J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE PLAINS WITH 1000-1500J/KG OVER THE FRONT RANGE. MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR. IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER OVER THE FRONT RANGE AS THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY DRIER AND MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES BACK WEST AND SOME STORM BACKBUILDING OCCURS. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF DENVER WILL ALSO HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING STORMS GOING AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROGGED IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY NOON. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE ENTIRELY VOID OF STORMS WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 I took a look at the KGXY (Greeley) forecast sounding for this afternoon, 0z. I am looking at Earl Barker's page, NAM forecast sounding. The CAPE is 2500 J/kg, and LI is -4. 0-6km shear is 40 knots. 3km helicity is 110 m2/s2. These are definitely the best parameters our region has seen since last summer. I wonder what areas will get storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I took a look at the KGXY (Greeley) forecast sounding for this afternoon, 0z. I am looking at Earl Barker's page, NAM forecast sounding. The CAPE is 2500 J/kg, and LI is -4. 0-6km shear is 40 knots. 3km helicity is 110 m2/s2. These are definitely the best parameters our region has seen since last summer. I wonder what areas will get storms today. It will be very interesting. Sitting here in my office in Boulder, looking out the window, and the only clouds I've seen so far are way up over the mountains. I'm sure that will change very soon, though. It remains to be seen whether my planned Flatirons hike this afternoon will be rained out. If not, we may get some good views of the storms off to the east. 311PM Edit: Ah, ha! There are the clouds! From my window, I can barely see well to the NE to the thunderhead of the first storm firing between Greeley and Fort Morgan right now. Also, there are more radar echoes than I was expecting over the foothills to the west of the Metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 So, this is interesting... we seem to have a convergence zone right on top of us, with a new tornado watch issued recently. Have to get home soon so I can make popcorn . Unfortunately, I have no view to the south or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 So, this is interesting... we seem to have a convergence zone right on top of us, with a new tornado watch issued recently. Have to get home soon so I can make popcorn . Unfortunately, I have no view to the south or east. I'm still trying to decide whether or not to head up the Flatirons in about an hour. Should be a really good view of the storms to the east from there, but not trying to get caught in anything! Things definitely starting to show up over the mountains on composite reflectivity, but not much on base yet. Not too worried about rain, but don't wanna be dodging lightning strikes or hail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Sirens audible here now. Looks like a recently warned cell with a decent signature about 8 miles SE of here, near the Parker/Aurora line just E of E-470. Lots of housing developments. Stationary= not real good. We'll see. Updates when I hear 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 So this wacko monster cell has been TOR warned now for over two hours- not clear if there has been an actual tornado from the cell itself though there have been others reported nearby. But it has dropped >5" of rain (radar estimate), and still is not moving and doesn't seem to be weakening a heck of a lot either. Hardest I've seen it rain since we moved here two years ago. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I'm still trying to decide whether or not to head up the Flatirons in about an hour. Should be a really good view of the storms to the east from there, but not trying to get caught in anything! Things definitely starting to show up over the mountains on composite reflectivity, but not much on base yet. Not too worried about rain, but don't wanna be dodging lightning strikes or hail! You end up going? Looked pretty typical as far as summer storms go in Boulder. It looked ugly for a while but little of note actually happened. We had a little rain during my softball game but it never really opened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 You end up going? Looked pretty typical as far as summer storms go in Boulder. It looked ugly for a while but little of note actually happened. We had a little rain during my softball game but it never really opened up. I think we would've been fine, but that one threatening-looking storm appeared to be moving in right as we were about to set out around 5PM. We could see lightning and hear thunder from it, so decided to head up to my place in the canyon to wait it out. Of course, the storms ended up falling apart as they came over the mountains. We didn't do the Flatirons hike, but ended up doing a short hike up the canyon side outside my place. There were no good views to the east from where we were, but the clouds still looked pretty awesome as the sun was setting. A bunch of us from my work are planning a Flatirons hike for this afternoon (the same one I was going to do yesterday), but things seem to be shaping up pretty similarly. It is more humid to start off with today though, and we've had plenty of sunshine this morning so far in Boulder, so I wouldn't be surprised if it is another no-go, especially because I assume the organized will be overly cautious (since it is a work thing). We'll see! I couldn't believe that storm on the radar SE of Denver last night. It seemed to go on forever. Colorado Springs also got hit pretty hard by a nearly stationary storm. A coworker just showed me a picture he took of hail accumulated in his backyard. He has a two year old roof on his house and apparently it leaked for the first time last night after the gutter collapsed and the edges became compromised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 RAP says higher CAPE today than yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Here's the radar-based storm total precip from last night. Amazing how the rain can avoid all the cities near me. Perhaps today will be a day of heavy rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 This is a 4 hour forecast from the RAP/ SPC mesoanalysis. If 4000 J/kg CAPE happened here with no capping, we would get thunderstorms in 2 nanoseconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 16Z RAP says CAPE already >2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Tornado Watch just issued... Unlike yesterday, this one includes Boulder County. TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2012 TORNADO WATCH 362 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-059-069-075-087-121-123-080200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0362.120607T1745Z-120608T0200Z/ CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT JEFFERSON LARIMER LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 This is a pic of the monster storm southeast of Denver at about 8:20. I was about 5 miles north of downtown Denver. I didn't really chase it, I just drove down there for fun. I thought the shadow behind the storm cloud was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 There's a wildfire just west of Horsetooth Mountain. We can see smoke directly west of Fort Collins, maybe just behind the mountain, up to 3 miles behind the mountain. This started today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 This fire is already big. The smoke stretches out to Wyoming and it can be seen on satellite. The tan-ish clouds of smoke go on for miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Did you take the picture Chinook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2012 Author Share Posted June 10, 2012 Yes. That is my picture. On Denver news web sites, there are plenty of pictures like the one I posted above. This is a panorama that I just took from the top of a small mountain an hour ago. This may be the biggest smoke cloud I ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Hope they make good progress with that fire in the coming days. BTW, record high tied at DEN today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Fire has grown to 8000+ acres. I can't see the smoke from Boulder like I did yesterday, but it could just be that the strong inversion this morning (evident on the 12Z DNR sounding) is limiting the altitude to which the smoke plume can rise. The cooler temperatures and higher RH today should at least slow the progress of the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2012 Author Share Posted June 10, 2012 This is what the Larimer County web site says: High Park Fire is now at 14,000 acres with 0% contained. I think I read this on a news web site: The flames were pretty high at night-time. The fire spread overnight. Radar yesterday with smoke plume seen on radar: Satellite today: radar today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 20 thousand acres now...still 0% contained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Now 36,000+ acres. Yikes. Wind less today so we can all root for the firefighters. Easy to smell smoke way down here in Aurora even though winds mainly from the S/SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 I think the wind has mixed the smoke to a lot of the NE Colorado area. I took some pictures today. This is a huge natural disaster for our county! It is climbing over the mountain into Lory State Park, west of the reservoir. The first picture here shows CSU Atmospheric Science Department. The fire is 1-2 miles behind the building here, and behind the reservoir. The fire won't cross the reservoir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Latest update: 2:33 PM - Jun 11 Based on the density of homes in the Rist Canyon area we believe approximately 100 structures have been damaged or destroyed. An unknown number of homes and structures have been damaged in other areas including Poudre Park, Soldier Canyon and Mill Canyon. There are many unburned areas within the perimeter of the fire, so residents should not assume their homes are damaged or destroyed. An assessment and recovery team will be working to identify specific addresses of damaged or destroyed properties but it will take some time. It looks very smoky up that way from Boulder. No towering pyrocumulus like the last few days, but those could develp again over the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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