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June 10 - ? Severe Thread


hm8

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SPC has highlighted areas of the WI and MI in the Day 6 and 7 outlooks.

day48prob.gif

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0400 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...

WHILE LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAINS

QUITE GOOD THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD...THE

OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS APPEARS A

BIT LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE

POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD /SAT. JUNE 9 THROUGH MON. JUNE

11/. IN GENERAL...HINTS THAT STRONGER CAPPING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS

REGION MAY CONFINE GREATER STORM COVERAGE TO AREAS N OF THE

U.S./CANADA BORDER ARE SEEN IN THE NEWER MODEL RUNS.

STILL...WITH A STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH -- AND ASSOCIATED/ENHANCED

FLOW FIELD ALOFT -- EJECTING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. IN

CONJUNCTION WITH A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...APPRECIABLE SEVERE

POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT. THUS -- WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE

SEVERE THREAT...WITH AREAS EXTENDING FROM THE ND VICINITY EWD INTO

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DAYS 5-7.

..GOSS.. 06/05/2012

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