mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hr. 78 looks very flat/progressive. Not sure how much of a stom is possible with that look. You can also notice cold air is already making SE progress through VA by this hour. Pretty big difference between the 0z and 18z run. yep, it is not a good run but alas, its the NAM at the end of its run that will certainly change to something new in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the slower speed of the southern stream s/w may make up for the system being flatter, as it seems ready to phase into the PV at 84. As someone else said, not far off from the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Guys, it is the NAM at 78HR. Relax... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yep, it is not a good run but alas, its the NAM at the end of its run that will certainly change to something new in 6 hours "long range nam, will change a lot" should be added to the phrases if it's not there already. im saving my bridge jump for when the gfs loses it in a bit. ok, kidding... sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 In all honestly, it doesnt really look that bad at 84 hours. Slower? It looks ready to phase at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the slower speed of the southern stream s/w may make up for the system being flatter, as it seems ready to phase into the PV at 84. As someone else said, not far off from the 18z GFS. Yes, it rallied a little at hr. 84. Not sure the run would be great, but it might not be a disaster either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Guys, it is the NAM at 78HR. Relax... Yep. It would be like taking a 354 hour threat on the GFS and trying to decide what happens by hour 400. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 In all honestly, it doesnt really look that bad at 84 hours. Slower? It looks ready to phase at 84 hours. Agree, although flatter, it is also a little slower. And it does look fairly similar to the 90 hr. 18Z GFS. However the GFS was more robust with the precip... Too close to call on the NAM at this point I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Borrowed from the NE thread: Im going to say it even though nobody wants to hear it....its looks pretty badt at 84h....almost exactly like the 12z Euro at 96h except the PV is worse off north of NE...at 96h it was actually rotating down W and SW and trying to phase in...not happening on the NAM. This would almost certainly result in a wide right solution.....BUT.... It is the NAM at 84h...so thankfully, it doesn't really matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the slower speed of the southern stream s/w may make up for the system being flatter, as it seems ready to phase into the PV at 84. As someone else said, not far off from the 18z GFS. Yeah, I thought the midwest trof on the NAM is even a bit sharper than the GFS, especially if you look at 300mb. As Wes notes, the vortex is a bit stronger on this run. It still would be a good storm or at least a very near miss if not a hit for the MA if you extend this run out. Its a good run all things considered, IMO. Seems like the GFS has this sniffed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It looks very similar to the 12z euro at 96 hrs if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This thread is terrible. Please delete and start over for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The energy in question is the stuff over Colorado @ 84 hour on the NAM. It's going to dive SE and form a low. Looks pretty good actually. A bit farther west on it's approach. 84 hour NAM On the 90 hour 18z GFS it's over SW Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It is the NAM, as everyone has said, but since we are talking about it regarding the second storm, it would be worse owing to the large vortex the NAM has over northern NE. It would be more difficult for strong WAA and subsequent height rises to develop ahead of the PV anomaly as it lifts NE along the coast...which would halt the self-development/positive feedback and would result in a track farther out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 A year ago tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 A year ago tonight... I knew posting that link the other day would be a bad idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 which proves how this event is NOTHING like last year on DEC 19 A year ago tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 0Z nam TOTAL QPF is again UP for s central VA the dark blue area into FVX and LYH and it is colder .... someone now may break 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't understand the December 2009 analog here. That was a pure Subtropical Jet surge, and had a signifcant west coast ridge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't understand the December 2009 analog here. That was a pure Subtropical Jet surge, and had a signifcant west coast ridge.... I thought the Pacific was a close match. Purely nostalgic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't understand the December 2009 analog here. That was a pure Subtropical Jet surge, and had a signifcant west coast ridge.... I posted the 12/19/95 event a couple of times, to me its very similar to that but maybe I'm crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I don't understand the December 2009 analog here. That was a pure Subtropical Jet surge, and had a signifcant west coast ridge.... Chris look at the 500mb map Dr. No posted, it does look similar in some ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 0Z nam TOTAL QPF is again UP for s central VA the dark blue area into FVX and LYH and it is colder .... someone now may break 4" Good luck for you guys down south. For us New Yorkers we got a dusting of snow last night. I look forward to a winter of pleasant surprises for all of us east coast snow lovers (wishcast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 A year ago tonight... And look at the much stronger ridge to the west of the system and the stronger jet feeding into the back end of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And look at the much strong ridge to the west of the system and the stronger jet feeding into the back end of the trough. Weenies like "Dr No" don't like reality Wes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And look at the much stronger ridge to the west of the system and the stronger jet feeding into the back end of the trough. I agree Wes, the two aren't even in the same ballpark if you ask me...Look at how much stronger that PNA ridge was a year ago...This storm might produce something significant somewhere but unless something changes the chances are diminishing every model run for a widespread event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 we can get a decent storm without the ridging out west it's just going to be significantly more difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 we can get a decent storm without the ridging out west it's just going to be significantly more difficult not saying we can't because we have the chances just diminish down to thread the needle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 There ya go DC at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 we can get a decent storm without the ridging out west it's just going to be significantly more difficult We can but this coming storm's 500 pattern has signficant difference to the one Dr. No posted. I was just responding to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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