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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/15/2010


Dr No

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Hr. 78 looks very flat/progressive. Not sure how much of a stom is possible with that look. You can also notice cold air is already making SE progress through VA by this hour. Pretty big difference between the 0z and 18z run.

yep, it is not a good run

but alas, its the NAM at the end of its run that will certainly change to something new in 6 hours

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yep, it is not a good run

but alas, its the NAM at the end of its run that will certainly change to something new in 6 hours

"long range nam, will change a lot" should be added to the phrases if it's not there already. im saving my bridge jump for when the gfs loses it in a bit. ok, kidding... sort of. :P

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Looks like the slower speed of the southern stream s/w may make up for the system being flatter, as it seems ready to phase into the PV at 84. As someone else said, not far off from the 18z GFS.

post-611-0-27174300-1292381409.gif

Yes, it rallied a little at hr. 84. Not sure the run would be great, but it might not be a disaster either.

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In all honestly, it doesnt really look that bad at 84 hours. Slower? It looks ready to phase at 84 hours.

Agree, although flatter, it is also a little slower. And it does look fairly similar to the 90 hr. 18Z GFS. However the GFS was more robust with the precip...

Too close to call on the NAM at this point I suppose.

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Borrowed from the NE thread:

Im going to say it even though nobody wants to hear it....its looks pretty badt at 84h....almost exactly like the 12z Euro at 96h except the PV is worse off north of NE...at 96h it was actually rotating down W and SW and trying to phase in...not happening on the NAM. This would almost certainly result in a wide right solution.....BUT....

It is the NAM at 84h...so thankfully, it doesn't really matter.

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Looks like the slower speed of the southern stream s/w may make up for the system being flatter, as it seems ready to phase into the PV at 84. As someone else said, not far off from the 18z GFS.

post-611-0-27174300-1292381409.gif

Yeah, I thought the midwest trof on the NAM is even a bit sharper than the GFS, especially if you look at 300mb. As Wes notes, the vortex is a bit stronger on this run. It still would be a good storm or at least a very near miss if not a hit for the MA if you extend this run out.

Its a good run all things considered, IMO. Seems like the GFS has this sniffed out.

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It is the NAM, as everyone has said, but since we are talking about it regarding the second storm, it would be worse owing to the large vortex the NAM has over northern NE. It would be more difficult for strong WAA and subsequent height rises to develop ahead of the PV anomaly as it lifts NE along the coast...which would halt the self-development/positive feedback and would result in a track farther out to sea.

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Guest someguy

0Z nam TOTAL QPF is again UP for s central VA

the dark blue area into FVX and LYH and it is colder .... someone now may break 4"

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0Z nam TOTAL QPF is again UP for s central VA

the dark blue area into FVX and LYH and it is colder .... someone now may break 4"

Good luck for you guys down south. For us New Yorkers we got a dusting of snow last night. I look forward to a winter of pleasant surprises for all of us east coast snow lovers (wishcast).

Snowman.gif

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And look at the much stronger ridge to the west of the system and the stronger jet feeding into the back end of the trough. :whistle:

I agree Wes, the two aren't even in the same ballpark if you ask me...Look at how much stronger that PNA ridge was a year ago...This storm might produce something significant somewhere but unless something changes the chances are diminishing every model run for a widespread event

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