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0Z Guidance Discussion 12/15/2010


Dr No

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Yeah, inching north. I think it should be even a little more north as the cyclops is weaker and more compressed. Compare to 18Z. Does anyone know why the 18Z NAM QPF is wetter than the 0Z NAM QPF always...(problem on all storms)... known bias?

post-772-0-07136600-1292379765.gif

The top part of the precip shield appears cut off (and cut off on the SE side of the 4 corners storm too)... does the model attempt to compensate for dry air on 0Z causing the QPF issue?

post-772-0-57001300-1292379984.gif

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NAM quite painful for us

too far north round 1

better luck with round 2 let's hope

we'll see.. not a bad look for this range, may be some room for improvement if that 500 low over the ne can weaken/nudge north ever so slightly next few runs. i'd take anything -- but looks best for the seasonal jackpot (thus far) area I guess.

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we'll see.. not a bad look for this range, may be some room for improvement if that 500 low over the ne can weaken/nudge north ever so slightly next few runs. i'd take anything -- but looks best for the seasonal jackpot (thus far) area I guess.

yeah, we've certainly learned the hard way over the years how much the NAM can shift in 36 hours

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RIC takes a good hit on the overrunning event as per NAM...probably 3-5" snow there. The 12z ECM also showed around .5" QPF for RIC, with all of it being of the frozen variety...probably 90% snow with a bit of icing/sleet on top, which will help preserve the snowpack as we have a moderation of the pattern Friday/Saturday before the next cold shot comes down. They've had a very good winter so far in central/southern Virginia and may expand their snowfall significantly this weekend.

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http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=ir4&coverage=nh&file=jpg&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash

Perhaps the NAM is now picking up on the fire hose of moisture headed for Northern CA as depicted on the goes West satellite

loop. This could be a factor in increasing the qpf for both storm #1 and possibly #2.

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Yes and the vortex over new england is stronger to the west which keeps the flow over the east flatter, that's not a good look for the weekend storm compared to the earlier run.

which is why a slower evolution may be OK in the end to give the Canadian vortex time to get the heck out of there

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which is why a slower evolution may be OK in the end to give the Canadian vortex time to get the heck out of there

Hr. 78 looks very flat/progressive. Not sure how much of a stom is possible with that look. You can also notice cold air is already making SE progress through VA by this hour. Pretty big difference between the 0z and 18z run.

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Yes and the vortex over new england is stronger to the west which keeps the flow over the east flatter, that's not a good look for the weekend storm compared to the earlier run.

Yeah, doesn't look as good as 18z, but who knows.....its the Nam after 48 hours, so it'll change a few times...and hopefully for the better. Hour 78 does't look THAT bad I guess?

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