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June Obs/Discussion Thread


MN Transplant

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day3prob_20120620_0730_prt.gif

...ERN COLD FRONT...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH SERN CANADIAN-OH VALLEY

UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD

WITH UPWARDS OF 25-30KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE

WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT

EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER

HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD

EASILY DEVELOP ALONG THE WIND SHIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT

PROGRESSES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED

ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AND A FEW STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE GUSTY

WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY INTRODUCE

5% SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT BUT HIGHER PROBS MAY BE

NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT CONVECTION

WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED/INTENSE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

Storms

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We already got the west bump though. I'll take 97.

88.3 on mine.

eh--early a.m. bump. ;) we usually see a steep rise in one of the morning hourlies. it could be one of those days we peak out early and then piddle up for a few hours. would want to see more west component i suppose. need another few degrees at noon.

the best part is that a few days ago so many were like "naa, this is a mid-90s heat at worst". sure.. with a stacked ridge overhead or just southwest. numerical model forecasters.. sigh.

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at least we're not in duluth. apocalypse from 6" of rain?

Close to 8" in spots, and with that terrain there is going to be problems. Love the MN north shore. Sad to hear about all of the animal deaths at the zoo up there.

edit - and when you've had catastrophic flooding, this is what you want headed at you

post-1746-0-26544100-1340205989_thumb.gi

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