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June Obs/Discussion Thread


MN Transplant

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A +1 departure for June qualifies as a torch?

Well first of all, a +1 departure is not near-normal, that's above average. At least one record high was tied this month already. Taken out of context, I'd agree its not an all-out torch; however, coming after 16 straight months of above average temperatures, the 7th hottest winter and the hottest spring on record, yes, in my opinion, it qualifies as part of a larger torch pattern that's (mostly) been in play for the last 2.5 years. The repeated calls for the "pattern change" this year by everyone has not panned out, and I kept saying all year that they wouldn't, not at least until the spring and summer was over. Anyways that's my whole spiel, it seems to irritate everyone on here and tbh even I'm tired of writing about it, so I'll just shutup. That is all.

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You wanna take that one back now? Sorry, my spring/summer torch forecast was right. LOL

Well first of all, a +1 departure is not near-normal, that's above average. At least one record high was tied this month already. Taken out of context, I'd agree its not an all-out torch; however, coming after 16 straight months of above average temperatures, the 7th hottest winter and the hottest spring on record, yes, in my opinion, it qualifies as part of a larger torch pattern that's (mostly) been in play for the last 2.5 years. The repeated calls for the "pattern change" this year by everyone has not panned out, and I kept saying all year that they wouldn't, not at least until the spring and summer was over. Anyways that's my whole spiel, it seems to irritate everyone on here and tbh even I'm tired of writing about it, so I'll just shutup. That is all.

I think the point here is that you said that your spring/summer torch forecast was right. First of all, +1 is in fact not a torch. It's above normal but nothing super out of the ordinary. Second, the summer is not over...a little early to be breaking out the champagne and celebrating eh?

You didn't say in your congratulations post that you meant the pattern over the last 2.5 years was torchy - you simply congratulated yourself on a well done torch forecast for just the spring/summer period...which is not over. :P

People are just irritated that you seem to be all excited over a forecast that has not yet verified.

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Looking at that death ridge in the midwest, it's hard to think all that heat is not going to dominate the pattern this summer. It seems even worse than the Texas heat bubble last summer that gave us our hottest July (?) on record. As much as I hate it, it would seem the smart money is on a torch for at least July, if not the whole summer. I sure hope I'm wrong (Noreastercane also).

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Well first of all, a +1 departure is not near-normal, that's above average. At least one record high was tied this month already. Taken out of context, I'd agree its not an all-out torch; however, coming after 16 straight months of above average temperatures, the 7th hottest winter and the hottest spring on record, yes, in my opinion, it qualifies as part of a larger torch pattern that's (mostly) been in play for the last 2.5 years. The repeated calls for the "pattern change" this year by everyone has not panned out, and I kept saying all year that they wouldn't, not at least until the spring and summer was over. Anyways that's my whole spiel, it seems to irritate everyone on here and tbh even I'm tired of writing about it, so I'll just shutup. That is all.

I've been saying pretty much the same in different forums and they do't want to hear it. I still think that late summer onwards will have more normal temps and perhaps some months actually below!

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Looking at that death ridge in the midwest, it's hard to think all that heat is not going to dominate the pattern this summer. It seems even worse than the Texas heat bubble last summer that gave us our hottest July (?) on record. As much as I hate it, it would seem the smart money is on a torch for at least July, if not the whole summer. I sure hope I'm wrong (Noreastercane also).

The heat can stay centered over the western plains and intermountain west though and not always move east. There are some decent nino analogs that loosely support this with near normal temps on both coasts with some really hot stuff in the middle. GFS is trying to do just that after the holiday next week.

I'm leaning towards short periods of anomalous heat with overall normal temps being dominant in July but what the heck to do I know.

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The heat can stay centered over the western plains and intermountain west though and not always move east. There are some decent nino analogs that loosely support this with near normal temps on both coasts with some really hot stuff in the middle. GFS is trying to do just that after the holiday next week.

I'm leaning towards short periods of anomalous heat with overall normal temps being dominant in July but what the heck to do I know.

Hopefully, a lot more than me.

Hard not to think back to last summer when that Texas bubble occasionally spread NE for brief periods in May and June (right in time for holiday weekend heatwaves on Memorial Day and July 4), and then completely enveloped us for most of July. Yea, the ENSO state has changed since then, but has our luck?

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I could smell a fairly strong scent of smoke this morning. Are there any forest/brush fires off to the West?

Am I the only one who knew about this yesterday? I posted a pic of it from Pinnacles in the SNP. Neighbors Mtn has a forest fire on it. and there is another one on Massanutten Mtn too.

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