aldie 22 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 The models at least don't look too warm after today....death ridge cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 The models at least don't look too warm after today....death ridge cancel? no death ridge is the persistence forecast for now imo.. oh well, a cool summer is still warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Let Canada have the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 no death ridge is the persistence forecast for now imo.. oh well, a cool summer is still warm True...mid upper 80's is still yuck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 yeah...the height anomalies continue to be displaced to the north...I think this quasi ring of fire I am predicting doesn't materialize until early to mid next week if at all...the euro/gfs both suggest the possibility....we start to fight quickly increasing norms soon, but I am not seeing any prolonged -3 period like we had to start the month...looks mostly normal to slightly above until this weekend and then up inthe air but a couple minus days may be in the cards...A smart bet was to go normal for the month after the beginning, but I still think we eek out just above if not the 1 to 2 I recently callled for or the 2 to 3 I predicted in the outlook...I am not going to keep revising my prediction, but rather accept that there are risk factors there to suggest why it may not materialize...2nd half is a real wildcard.. in other news, we popped a +7 on the min this morning...at 85 now..should be able to hit 88-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 We are at least +6.5 today Euro has this inverted trough through the weekend and is frankly cool....I am a bit flummoxed as to how the week will pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 We are at least +6.5 today Euro has this inverted trough through the weekend and is frankly cool....I am a bit flummoxed as to how the week will pan out i saw that too. Is the battleground we talked about in another thread starting to show it's face early? I was thinking the chance existed for an extended period of ec troughing in July-Aug but like you, i figged june was a lock for heat in these parts. The heights built quickly around greenland during mem day weeking while we were roasting and there was enough force to push the trough all the way to the south of us in early june. NAO forecasts last week showed this relaxing fairly quickly this week and next but that is changing. If anything, guidance is starting to lean towards building heights up there again after the 16-20th time frame. Whether this translates down this far south is always a wildcard in the summer but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 MRB has not hit 90 yet this year. There have only been 5 years since 1980 that the first 90 came later than this. 7/9/1992 6/25/2003 6/20/2001 6/20/1995 6/15/1981 Knocking May and June off the high-heat calendar makes whatever comes Jul-Aug more bearable, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 hit 90 today...+7 on the day...almost normal for the month now...This week looks interesting I could see it go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 MRB has not hit 90 yet this year. There have only been 5 years since 1980 that the first 90 came later than this. 7/9/1992 6/25/2003 6/20/2001 6/20/1995 6/15/1981 Knocking May and June off the high-heat calendar makes whatever comes Jul-Aug more bearable, imo. always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 11, 2012 Author Share Posted June 11, 2012 i saw that too. Is the battleground we talked about in another thread starting to show it's face early? I was thinking the chance existed for an extended period of ec troughing in July-Aug but like you, i figged june was a lock for heat in these parts. The heights built quickly around greenland during mem day weeking while we were roasting and there was enough force to push the trough all the way to the south of us in early june. NAO forecasts last week showed this relaxing fairly quickly this week and next but that is changing. If anything, guidance is starting to lean towards building heights up there again after the 16-20th time frame. Whether this translates down this far south is always a wildcard in the summer but you never know. I am a bit surprised that we may not torch by later this week....but perhaps the 2nd half....I still like a relatively normal July without any super extended heat waves....but I may be completely off base...Competing regimes always make it hard...with unimpressive 850 temps, we need some help to bake...and it doesn't look like we see anything anomalous at the mid/upper levels for at least a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Looks like we might get a string of -3ish departures through the weekend. Looks nice, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 It's amazing how Richmond has been so drastically different relative to our averages versus DCA and CHO. DCA is running ~ -0.5 while CHO is running +1.0. Down here RIC is running -2.4 and, especially after the last two years, it's felt even cooler than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 12, 2012 Author Share Posted June 12, 2012 Looks like we might get a string of -3ish departures through the weekend. Looks nice, really. MOS certainly suggests it...today should be a wash or a -1...starting tomorrow looks like it could be a string of below...I am dubious of these low mins though despite MOS....so that might mitigate it a bit...Euro suggest at or above normal in about a week, but the models have been bad at that range..I am not very familiar with this setup in the summer...a ULL/inverted trough to our southeast..the euro certainly wants to keep us cold until early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 MOS certainly suggests it...today should be a wash or a -1...starting tomorrow looks like it could be a string of below...I am dubious of these low mins though despite MOS....so that might mitigate it a bit...Euro suggest at or above normal in about a week, but the models have been bad at that range..I am not very familiar with this setup in the summer...a ULL/inverted trough to our southeast..the euro certainly wants to keep us cold until early next week Prob a smart play to hedge with higher mins. HP is centered over NE with NE-SE surface flow Fri-Sun. Dews will probably end up high enough to keep mins in the mid-upper 60's around DCA even with relatively clear skies and hp in control. I doubt the closer in suburbs will get into the 50's and if they do it will only be a brief time near sunrise but that is just a guess. Looking at the latest GFS, it doesn't really scream heat at all. Even with some of the ridging that builds the surface flow has a distinct easterly component from days 3-8. It briefly turns southerly around days 8-9 but then flips to westerly past after that. Of course there isn't much confidence at that range but we may get off really easy this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 Looking below normal maybe the last week of the month as well. Pretty amazing really, compared to the heat of recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 13, 2012 Author Share Posted June 13, 2012 Looking below normal maybe the last week of the month as well. Pretty amazing really, compared to the heat of recent years. yes...I think the pattern now is the same as to start the month 5-6 days of cool/cold and then 2-4 days of heat...should be the same next week...Euro suggests 2-3 day period of heat and then who knows...I am curious to see what kind of departures we build up over the next 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 i think i predicted a cool summer http://www.washingto...KPwRS_blog.html edit: skip the last para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 i think i predicted a cool summer http://www.washingto...KPwRS_blog.html edit: skip the last para not sure using 1981-2010 norms as a benchmark made the most sense...but I'm sure you didnt feel like crunching all sorts of numbers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 i think i predicted a cool summer http://www.washingto...KPwRS_blog.html edit: skip the last para I don't think it's out of the question. We've had this repeating pattern of a couple days of warmth, followed by a number of days of cool. We've also had a pretty persistent flow out of the northwest to east for extended periods. We've also seen models advertise extended heat, only to see the "heat" reduced in length and strength. Troughing has been persistent, and no strong southeast ridging. That can change, but the fact that we aren't seeing signs of extended heat even in the models out through the end of June is pretty interesting. Wouldn't be shocked to see July and August average close to normal, or even a little below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 I don't think it's out of the question. We've had this repeating pattern of a couple days of warmth, followed by a number of days of cool. We've also had a pretty persistent flow out of the northwest to east for extended periods. We've also seen models advertise extended heat, only to see the "heat" reduced in length and strength. Troughing has been persistent, and no strong southeast ridging. That can change, but the fact that we aren't seeing signs of extended heat even in the models out through the end of June is pretty interesting. Wouldn't be shocked to see July and August average close to normal, or even a little below normal. As MN pointed out..last night's euro and now today's GFS are bullish on heat for 2-4 days next week..this has been the case for a few days now..still 5-6 days away, but it looks like a continuing battle for now...last 10 days will be critical to state the obvious..we aren't seeing much sun right now..today will probably be a -1 to -2..if the forecast is right, we could see the next 3-4 days average -4 to -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 As MN pointed out..last night's euro and now today's GFS are bullish on heat for 2-4 days next week..this has been the case for a few days now..still 5-6 days away, but it looks like a continuing battle for now...last 10 days will be critical to state the obvious..we aren't seeing much sun right now..today will probably be a -1 to -2..if the forecast is right, we could see the next 3-4 days average -4 to -6 Makes sense. Will need to see if the models stay consistent with the heat, or if they start to back off on it as we get closer, as they have in the past. I would think that at some point, we see a more extended period of positive temperature anomalies (probably July). From a personal perspective, I'm concerned about the last week of June - headed to the Outer Banks. I don't care about the temperature so much (as long as it's not 90+ degrees, which it won't be), but I am worried about some storm potential that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 83/68 yesterday...64 this morning...not impressed so far.... FYI...I won't be as annoying in July when I went for average temps and I'd be overjoyed to have a minus month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 83/68 yesterday...64 this morning...not impressed so far.... FYI...I won't be as annoying in July when I went for average temps and I'd be overjoyed to have a minus month +3 July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 +3 July That would be 83 with the new norms. Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 Updated...today's departure was impressive for June 17th...,could have a big one tomorrow too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Updated...today's departure was impressive for June 17th...,could have a big one tomorrow too.... Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 -11 so far today...this is how you can get a cold month...-5's wont cut it....-11 is a monster departure for late June of course it will be negated somewhat this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 -11 so far today...this is how you can get a cold month...-5's wont cut it....-11 is a monster departure for late June of course it will be negated somewhat this week That +inifinity on Thursday should def more than offset today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 NAO guidance is suggesting the index may fall back to near -2 territory the last week of June.The index has been verifying at the lowest end of guidance for almost a month now too. AO has gone positive though and is forcast to stay between zero and +1 until the last week of the month. I really have no idea how the AO affects summer temps though. I've never paid much attention. I know the nao contributes to troughiness in the east year round so I assume the ao also affects temps in summer? Still way too early to tell but the persistance of above normal temps that has been going on since before the beginning of the year may be flipping the other way. I'm kinda thinking that we go back to AOB normal next week. The next couple days are going to make quite a dent in the - departures. Not looking forward to sweating my eyeballs out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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