ksstormhunter Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Pretty nice line of thunderstorms running just west of Dallas to Ardmore, OK right now, looking at some heavy rains with these storms and winds up to around 60-70mph embedded in this line of thunderstorms. Link to Dallas output http://smartwxmodel.net/27.pdf Pretty good instability across the area, LI's around -6, SFC CAPE around 2300 j/kg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 You think so? That's really cool that GRLevel2 can pick that out and it's cool to see it forming into a spiral. I don't see the low reflectivities and the highest resolution on GRLevel3, so it just isn't showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 85/55 on the Kestrel north of Brush, CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I assume you mean tornado potential takes a hit on Saturday? Otherwise, things still look pretty good for a hail/wind event in ND/MB near the warm front. Yeah, I was referring to significant supercell and tornado potential. I'm sure general severe will still be possible in MB regardless. That's really cool that GRLevel2 can pick that out and it's cool to see it forming into a spiral. I don't see the low reflectivities and the highest resolution on GRLevel3, so it just isn't showing up. That's because the default color tables for GR3 are god-awful. I'll never understand why it ships with the tables it does for both reflectivity and velocity. In this case, it's likely that your reflectivity table cuts off way too high at 10 dBZ. Do you have GR3 1.0 or 2.0? I can post better color tables for either one if you'd like. As of 2030 UTC, the front appears to be retreating and extends along a line from Castle Rock to Bennett to the Morgan/Weld Co. line on I-76. From there, the radar fine line continues to loop back to the NW as shown in LB's earlier image. The "cyclone" appears centered near Prospect Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 300 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST WYOMING EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL 900 PM MDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHADRON NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIMON COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE BORDER REGION...AND ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE OVER NERN CO. BOTH BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING NWWD ACCORDING TO SATELLITE/RADAR DATA...SUGGESTING STORM THREAT MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP WWD WHERE STRONGER SSWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING WILL PROMOTE FORMATION OF LARGE HAIL WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LONG THE DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN NERN CO. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20020. ...WEISS In Boulder right now. Debating whether or not to chase considering I'm not here to chase. But would hate to miss such a give-me opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Text from the Tornado Watch in Colorado is interesting: .WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LONG THE DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN NERN CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 The whole front from I-70 north is lighting up now. Cells north of the CO/WY border are intensifying more quickly at the moment, likely due to better upper-level support. Likely some large hail falling on the west side of Cheyenne. However, NE CO does have the advantage of 50s dew points (not to mention the DCVZ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I can certainly see a lot more clouds than 2 hours ago. There are hail cores on 2 storms in CO, 4 storms in WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Text from the Tornado Watch in Colorado is interesting: .WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LONG THE DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN NERN CO. That is interesting. Wonder if they are predicting one of those surprise last minute mesoscale type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I can certainly see a lot more clouds than 2 hours ago. There are hail cores on 2 storms in CO, 4 storms in WY. Amazing how quickly the sky went from cloudless to dark today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 The storm about 20 miles SE of Chugwater WY is close to becoming tornadic. Even if it doesn't, it likely will be dropping large hailstones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 The storm about 20 miles SE of Chugwater WY is close to becoming tornadic. Looks like it just cycled very rapidly, with the old meso dying and a new, similarly-intense one developing about 5 mi. ESE all during one volume scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Looks like we have some 2 to 4" hail in the clouds near Cheyenne. 2" hail at a rural location 18 miles from Cheyenne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Looks like cells are struggling to remain supercellular for any extended period of time, most likely due to only modest deep-layer shear. I still think that the tornado threat should persist for at least a few more hours given numerous boundaries that could enhance low-level helicity. Waiting for the next frame or two, but it looks like that cell by Bennett, CO could be beginning to split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Looks like cells are struggling to remain supercellular for any extended period of time, most likely due to only modest deep-layer shear. I still think that the tornado threat should persist for at least a few more hours given numerous boundaries that could enhance low-level helicity. Waiting for the next frame or two, but it looks like that cell by Bennett, CO could be beginning to split? Gotta love the hail in Colorado. Hopefully somone gets a good vid today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Nice visible look at what's developing east of Denver right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 Cell east of Denver now tornado warned, although I'm not seeing a whole lot at all from the radar perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Nicest looking cell so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 The cell near Denver is weirdly stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I'll be on it in 15 min. Keep a heads up for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Nice structure on Kholby Martin's cam right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Starting to get that little bow they get as they go outflow dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Starting to get that little bow they get as they go outflow dominant. Indeed... moisture is not quite living up to its billing on the models, and I think that's limiting tornado potential. If dew points were in the 55-58 F range right up to the front I'd be more excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Colorado Springs cell is ramping up now though. EDIT: Well that didn't last long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 TOG via Jason Hammer! Edit: Roped out now but it was a very nice stove pipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 lots of little transient spinups on that thing. 3 of the reports say it didnt touch but other says it was rain wrapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Colorado Springs is getting nailed by hail. Lots of reports of minor hail damage across the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Roger Hill reported elephant trunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Roger Hill reported elephant trunk That cell is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 That cell is a mess. Probably reporting the one from earlier. Besides it's Roger Hill, he can get a tornado no matter how messy the storm is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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