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June 1st - 12th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Pretty nice line of thunderstorms running just west of Dallas to Ardmore, OK right now, looking at some heavy rains with these storms and winds up to around 60-70mph embedded in this line of thunderstorms. Link to Dallas output http://smartwxmodel.net/27.pdf Pretty good instability across the area, LI's around -6, SFC CAPE around 2300 j/kg

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I assume you mean tornado potential takes a hit on Saturday? Otherwise, things still look pretty good for a hail/wind event in ND/MB near the warm front.

Yeah, I was referring to significant supercell and tornado potential. I'm sure general severe will still be possible in MB regardless.

That's really cool that GRLevel2 can pick that out and it's cool to see it forming into a spiral. I don't see the low reflectivities and the highest resolution on GRLevel3, so it just isn't showing up.

That's because the default color tables for GR3 are god-awful. I'll never understand why it ships with the tables it does for both reflectivity and velocity. In this case, it's likely that your reflectivity table cuts off way too high at 10 dBZ. Do you have GR3 1.0 or 2.0? I can post better color tables for either one if you'd like.

As of 2030 UTC, the front appears to be retreating and extends along a line from Castle Rock to Bennett to the Morgan/Weld Co. line on I-76. From there, the radar fine line continues to loop back to the NW as shown in LB's earlier image. The "cyclone" appears centered near Prospect Valley.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 361

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

300 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST COLORADO

THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE

SOUTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL

900 PM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHADRON

NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIMON COLORADO. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF

DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE BORDER REGION...AND

ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE OVER NERN CO. BOTH BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING

NWWD ACCORDING TO SATELLITE/RADAR DATA...SUGGESTING STORM THREAT MAY

GRADUALLY DEVELOP WWD WHERE STRONGER SSWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING WILL PROMOTE FORMATION OF LARGE

HAIL WITH MORE INTENSE CELLS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES TO

DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LONG THE DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN NERN CO.

:whistle:

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20020. ...WEISS

In Boulder right now. Debating whether or not to chase considering I'm not here to chase. But would hate to miss such a give-me opportunity.

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The whole front from I-70 north is lighting up now. Cells north of the CO/WY border are intensifying more quickly at the moment, likely due to better upper-level support. Likely some large hail falling on the west side of Cheyenne. However, NE CO does have the advantage of 50s dew points (not to mention the DCVZ).

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Text from the Tornado Watch in Colorado is interesting:

.WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES TO

DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LONG THE DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN NERN CO.

That is interesting. Wonder if they are predicting one of those surprise last minute mesoscale type events.

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Looks like cells are struggling to remain supercellular for any extended period of time, most likely due to only modest deep-layer shear. I still think that the tornado threat should persist for at least a few more hours given numerous boundaries that could enhance low-level helicity.

Waiting for the next frame or two, but it looks like that cell by Bennett, CO could be beginning to split?

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Looks like cells are struggling to remain supercellular for any extended period of time, most likely due to only modest deep-layer shear. I still think that the tornado threat should persist for at least a few more hours given numerous boundaries that could enhance low-level helicity.

Waiting for the next frame or two, but it looks like that cell by Bennett, CO could be beginning to split?

Gotta love the hail in Colorado. Hopefully somone gets a good vid today.

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Starting to get that little bow they get as they go outflow dominant.

Indeed... moisture is not quite living up to its billing on the models, and I think that's limiting tornado potential. If dew points were in the 55-58 F range right up to the front I'd be more excited.

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