Buckeye05 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Either a ground scraping wall cloud or a TOG a second ago. Too distant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 That structure is so sick it should be illegal... OMG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Whew... What a beautiful Beast! Core: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Jesse Risley reports TOG now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Western storm now getting a tight couplet. Edit: Gone on latest scan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I'm torn about the outlook for Sunday, will the SPC drop it? Looks like storm initiation over MN will first happen around 4-6pm for the northwestern area, around the Red River Valley of the north, and than later for the rest of MN. Looks like the upper level jet will set up parallel to the cold front all be it behind it, it will not intersect the warm sector imho. The best shear will be behind the front. My attention is now turning to Monday for Milwaukee and the area's to the SW including central Iowa, northern MO and into the Kansas area, the cold front seems to slow down and the best shear values seem to catch up to it. I don't know if the winds are unidirectional or not at this time. Once again I think the US models are way to strong on the dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I'm torn about the outlook for Sunday, will the SPC drop it? Looks like storm initiation over MN will first happen around 4-6pm for the northwestern area, around the Red River Valley of the north, and than later for the rest of MN. Looks like the upper level jet will set up parallel to the cold front all be it behind it, it will not intersect the warm sector imho. The best shear will be behind the front. My attention is now turning to Monday for Milwaukee and the area's to the SW including central Iowa, northern MO and into the Kansas area, the cold front seems to slow down and the best shear values seem to catch up to it. I don't know if the winds are unidirectional or not at this time. Once again I think the US models are way to strong on the dews. I think there is a possibility they might, taking all things into consideration. Far from an ideal setup IMO. My gut feeling is that we will see a few marginal setup days out of this, and not much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 That structure is so sick it should be illegal... OMG. Ahh, the drive would have been so worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Something rather interesting I noticed a few minutes ago. One of the rare instances where a Tornado Watch and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 I think there is a possibility they might, taking all things into consideration. Far from an ideal setup IMO. My gut feeling is that we will see a few marginal setup days out of this, and not much else. Maybe south of the border, but there is a reason they issued three straight day 4-8 outlooks (they don't just throw these out there recklessly), even with a less than ideal capping environment potentially. Currently, at least on the GFS, the best juxtaposition of solid low level (thanks to backing LL winds near the triple point) and deep layer shear, weaker capping and strong instability is in Southern Manitoba/Northern ND on Saturday, although that could change fairly easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Maybe south of the border, but there is a reason they issued three straight day 4-8 outlooks (they don't just throw these out there recklessly), even with a less than ideal capping environment potentially. Currently, at least on the GFS, the best juxtaposition of solid low level (thanks to backing LL winds near the triple point) and deep layer shear, weaker capping and strong instability is in Southern Manitoba/Northern ND on Saturday, although that could change fairly easily. yes I think it looks better up in Canada. I just don't know if Sunday south of the border at this time equates to a 30% risk before day 3 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 There's a distinct trend toward a less positively-tilted trough on the GFS, perhaps even pushing negative-tilt on tonight's run. Correspondingly, the LLJ looks more backed along the ND portion of the dryline, and instability is pulling back a bit farther W under the stronger flow. If this run has the general idea right, I can envision the highest threat setting up near the warm front in SW MB and SE SK, perhaps extending down into N ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 There's a distinct trend toward a less positively-tilted trough on the GFS, perhaps even pushing negative-tilt on tonight's run. Correspondingly, the LLJ looks more backed along the ND portion of the dryline, and instability is pulling back a bit farther W under the stronger flow. If this run has the general idea right, I can envision the highest threat setting up near the warm front in SW MB and SE SK, perhaps extending down into N ND. This, right now the northern axis of instability near the warm front looks like a nice spot with strongly backed low level flow near the sfc low. yes I think it looks better up in Canada. I just don't know if Sunday south of the border at this time equates to a 30% risk before day 3 IMO Two words: Damaging. Wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I would've sold my soul to see this. Shot today near Denton, MT, by Roger Hill and posted by him on FB. It's easy to overreact right after an event, but I seriously think this is one of the top five structure+tornado combinations ever shot by a chaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 A tornado was spotted in southern Alberta according to this tornado warning issued by Edmonton TORNADO WARNING UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:35 PM MDT TUESDAY 5 JUNE 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= CO. OF LETHBRIDGE NEAR PICTURE BUTTE AND TURIN =NEW= M.D. OF TABER NEAR VAUXHALL AND HAYS CO. OF LETHBRIDGE NEAR COALDALE M.D. OF TABER NEAR TABER AND CRANFORD. TORNADO WARNING ENDED FOR: CO. OF WARNER NEAR WRENTHAM. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 8:30 PM MDT METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 KILOMETRES SOUTH OF TABER. A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED WITH THIS STORM AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 55 KM/H TOWARDS TABER. ALSO THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 I would've sold my soul to see this. Shot today near Denton, MT, by Roger Hill and posted by him on FB. It's easy to overreact right after an event, but I seriously think this is one of the top five structure+tornado combinations ever shot by a chaser. Infrigginsane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I would've sold my soul to see this. Shot today near Denton, MT, by Roger Hill and posted by him on FB. It's easy to overreact right after an event, but I seriously think this is one of the top five structure+tornado combinations ever shot by a chaser. What an incredible shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2012 Author Share Posted June 6, 2012 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2012 VALID 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...SUBSTANTIAL DIVERGENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE TWO WITH RESPECT TO THEIR HANDLING OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH EJECTING EWD INTO/ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM -- PARTICULARLY FROM DAY 5 /SUN. JUNE 10/ ONWARD. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN THREAT AREAS DAYS 4 AND 5 /SAT. AND SUN. JUNE 10 AND 11/ -- ACROSS ND DAY 4 AND SHIFTING EWD INTO MN AND POSSIBLY NWRN MN DAY 5. DAY 4...MODELS PLACE A FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH FAST/DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADING ATOP THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION WITH SWD EXTENT...IT APPEARS THAT AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS ND -- WITH ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. DAY 5...THE THREAT SHIFTS EWD -- THOUGH THE FASTER GFS WOULD PLACE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS ERN MN AND INTO NWRN WI BY AFTERNOON -- AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER WOULD CONFINE MOST SEVERE POTENTIAL TO THE MN AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EJECTING SYSTEM...WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA ACROSS MN AND NWRN WI -- WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST CONSIDERING THE DIFFERING MODEL TIMING. BEYOND DAY 5...THREAT MAY CONTINUE E OF THE DAY 5 AREA...BUT ATTM WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDITIONAL AREAL ISSUANCE GIVEN OBSERVED MODEL DIVERGENCE. ..GOSS.. 06/06/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Stunning shot......Montana Big Sky Country. I would've sold my soul to see this. Shot today near Denton, MT, by Roger Hill and posted by him on FB. It's easy to overreact right after an event, but I seriously think this is one of the top five structure+tornado combinations ever shot by a chaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 #sadface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I would've sold my soul to see this. Shot today near Denton, MT, by Roger Hill and posted by him on FB. It's easy to overreact right after an event, but I seriously think this is one of the top five structure+tornado combinations ever shot by a chaser. Easily one of the best I've seen, what a beautiful pic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Indeed. I think I hate that guy... he hasn't missed anything good in years, and never fails to pull a few days like this out per year that no one else sees. On the other hand, he has to deal with tour guests throughout the heart of the season. Hmm, tradeoffs... Here's his site, for those who want to spend a few hours ogling: http://www.stormchase.net/ The new NAM laughs at us for even discussing big-league potential Saturday in ND. Positive-tilt trough, veered-out low levels... you know, vintage 2012. If anything, Friday looks more interesting invof the Black Hills into E WY/SE MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I would've sold my soul to see this. Shot today near Denton, MT, by Roger Hill and posted by him on FB. It's easy to overreact right after an event, but I seriously think this is one of the top five structure+tornado combinations ever shot by a chaser. Literally took the words right out of my mouth, wow at that shot. Simply Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 All - thoughts on a Denver chase today? This will be my first real experience with SevereWX since moving to Denver. My thoughts - might be the first time in my life I've ever seen a supercell structure from end to end. Living in Atlanta/Nashville to this point has been exciting, but it's like chasing storms in the dark - impossible to really see anything below the tree/hill lines. Denver's a whole different ball game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Awesome Denver Cyclone loop: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/15611099/20120606DenCO.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 All - thoughts on a Denver chase today? This will be my first real experience with SevereWX since moving to Denver. My thoughts - might be the first time in my life I've ever seen a supercell structure from end to end. Living in Atlanta/Nashville to this point has been exciting, but it's like chasing storms in the dark - impossible to really see anything below the tree/hill lines. Denver's a whole different ball game. I posted in the chasecation thread: That boundary evident on the base reflectivity midway between Denver and Limon could serve as the initial focus for convection this afternoon. Don't see any TCU yet but there's definitely a wind shift and a bit of a moisture gradient. I would also like to add that the HRRR seems keen on developing some slow-moving, isolated cells in this region, then actually back-building the activity towards the mountains later in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 The new NAM laughs at us for even discussing big-league potential Saturday in ND. Positive-tilt trough, veered-out low levels... you know, vintage 2012. If anything, Friday looks more interesting invof the Black Hills into E WY/SE MT. I assume you mean tornado potential takes a hit on Saturday? Otherwise, things still look pretty good for a hail/wind event in ND/MB near the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Awesome Denver Cyclone loop: http://dl.dropbox.co...120606DenCO.gif It's a bug mesoscale low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 It's a bug mesoscale low. You think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I posted in the chasecation thread: That boundary evident on the base reflectivity midway between Denver and Limon could serve as the initial focus for convection this afternoon. Don't see any TCU yet but there's definitely a wind shift and a bit of a moisture gradient. I would also like to add that the HRRR seems keen on developing some slow-moving, isolated cells in this region, then actually back-building the activity towards the mountains later in the evening. You can even see that Boundary now on Vis. Satellite.. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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