Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 12z GFS singing a much happier tune for those of us leaving for chase trips tomorrow! (Sorry I'm a tad excited.) It never establishes a full-on block and instead undercuts the ridge. Good stuff (if it verifies). how long are you out for? you referring to mid week or the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Just updated my output data for the OK/KS regions. Still showing an areas from Chanute to Wichita to Enid over to Tulsa area, with the greatest instability values right now. Showing potential for winds up to 88mph across this portion, Hail up to 1.25". Data Source: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 how long are you out for? you referring to mid week or the weekend? We're out from the 4th through the 14th. Mostly the weekend but I still think some decent DCVZ action is due this week. The big difference (and it's noted on the Euro also) is the lack of a block. Ridge != block, and there is no block on either the 12z GFS or the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 We're out from the 4th through the 14th. Mostly the weekend but I still think some decent DCVZ action is due this week. The big difference (and it's noted on the Euro also) is the lack of a block. Ridge != block, and there is no block on either the 12z GFS or the 00z Euro. Yeah the EC trough looks a bit more progressive on recent runs. Still having a hard time convincing Mark and Jason it's worth staying thru Fri. Was a good run either way considering this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 12z GFS ensembles have some rather impressive solutions up north WRT the weekend threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 N Plains weekend threat looks less meridional, but still not very impressive IMO. Instability is pretty impressive for this far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 N Plains weekend threat looks less meridional, but still not very impressive IMO. Instability is pretty impressive for this far out though. 12z GFS OP is largely an outlier compared to the Euro (although the Euro is a bit slower) and the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1030.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 3 km EHI's of 4+ across parts of the Ozarks (particularly N Arkansas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 12z GFS OP is largely an outlier compared to the Euro (although the Euro is a bit slower) and the GFS ensembles. CMC as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Heading home from Dallas. Just crossed the river on US 75. When is initiation supposed to begin? May grab the camera out of the trunk when we stop to feed the baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Tornado watch for S MO, N AR, extreme NE OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 DISCUSSION...LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A MORE RAPID ONSET OFDEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J PER KG/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STOUT UPDRAFTS WHERE 30-40KT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ROTATION AND PERSISTENCE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CLEARLY SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE SUBTLE BUT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH. THIS POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT SITUATED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE CENTER OF THE WATCH AREA....SOUTH OF THE MO BORDER. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND THE CHANCE OF A TORNADIC SUPERCELL OR TWO INTO THE EVENING BEFORE STORMS MERGE AND SPREAD EAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MO/AR BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Somehow we ended up back near the TX panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 TX panhandle or NW OK may not be a bad place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 TX panhandle or NW OK may not be a bad place to be. Easier to see things than AR at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Easier to see things than AR at least.. I will keep an eye on AR for you. Looks like we have rapid t-storm initiation just southwest of Fayetteville and another warned cell between Fayetteville and Harrison. These would appear to be right along the warm front. We are currently 87/72 with broken clouds and a darkening sky to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 I will keep an eye on AR for you. Looks like we have rapid t-storm initiation just southwest of Fayetteville and another warned cell between Fayetteville and Harrison. These would appear to be right along the warm front. We are currently 87/72 with broken clouds and a darkening sky to the SW. Looks like a left split headed your way, but I dunno if it's going to make it there or be east of you. Probably east since you complained about lack of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Looks like a left split headed your way, but I dunno if it's going to make it there or be east of you. Probably east since you complained about lack of rain Actually after all the magical dissipation of storms over Carroll County in the past 3 weeks, I am starting to mock the threat of rain. I left me car windows wide open last night and left a bag of seed out where it could get wet if there was some wind with rain. Sure it rained hard one county to our west, but not here. Anyway, the atmosphere is eerily heavy and darkening. It is hard to imagine a complete miss under these conditions, but then again...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 I'm starting to wonder if the Oklahoma part of the outlook will verify. It's been tricky today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Whoa... Dewps near the Panhandle are in the lower 50's. That cell near Woodward looks like the only decent thing to go after for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 You could chase this storm on foot. Not sure about the tor watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Storm looked nice for a while then totally vanished. Good finale to the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 00z GFS caving to the Euro/CMC/ensembles for the weekend potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 The 03/12z run of the ECMWF looks rather interesting up here towards the end of its run for MN. In other words 8-10 days out. I really can't put much credence in it yet,d just something to watch is all. It seems to bring dews around 65° and cape around the 2500 mark at this time. At least it's not bringing cape values up to 4000 at this time, as that would be a signal of a highly caped environment. Again just something to watch...have not looked yet at the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 00z GFS caving to the Euro/CMC/ensembles for the weekend potential. Is that surprising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 The 03/12z run of the ECMWF looks rather interesting up here towards the end of its run for MN. In other words 8-10 days out. I really can't put much credence in it yet,d just something to watch is all. It seems to bring dews around 65° and cape around the 2500 mark at this time. At least it's not bringing cape values up to 4000 at this time, as that would be a signal of a highly caped environment. Again just something to watch...have not looked yet at the GFS . More CAPE doesn't necessarily mean more CIN. For example, it can also mean that there are cooler mid level temperatures over spreading warmer, moist low level air. This steepens lapse rates, increases lift indexes (another method for forecasting instability) and also can mean a weaker cap, given the cooler mid level temps and EML. Generally, looking at H7 temps will give you a better idea of how warm the EML will be, and therefore how strong the resultant cap will be. More CAPE also means that an updraft that manages to form can explode more vigorously through the cap, given that it does in fact, break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 00z GFS caving to the Euro/CMC/ensembles for the weekend potential. Saturday in W ND looks fairly intriguing, though I'd like to see the trough axis make a tad more progress for better flow upstairs (lol @ even bothering to say that this far into 2012). For chasecationers, Friday may also offer one of those enhanced upslope opportunities in E WY/E MT where you can actually get legit supercells and a tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 More CAPE doesn't necessarily mean more CIN. For example, it can also mean that there are cooler mid level temperatures over spreading warmer, moist low level air. This steepens lapse rates, increases lift indexes (another method for forecasting instability) and also can mean a weaker cap, given the cooler mid level temps and EML. Generally, looking at H7 temps will give you a better idea of how warm the EML will be, and therefore how strong the resultant cap will be. More CAPE also means that an updraft that manages to form can explode more vigorously through the cap, given that it does in fact, break. agree 100% with what you said, however local knowledge over the last two years seems to lend it self, or suggest that cape over 4000 or so would suggest a caped environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 I tried to post the Bufkit Warehouse graph of Dew's that the GFS is showing at MSP next weekend, but it isn't allowed, needless to say,the GFS is showing around 73 or so, I really believe that's about 8-10° to high IMO. Those kind of Dew's usually show up here around Mid July as ET values (Evapotranspiration) really starts to kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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