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June 1st - 12th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Parameter overlay each other slightly better for the upcoming Dakotas/Manitoba threat. Still, I'm doubtful of a significant event.

You gotta think boundary layer moisture is overdone on the NAM again. Expect Td's around 60F or less south of the border. Too lazy to modify the forecast soundings, but that would be detrimental to both CAPE and LCL heights.

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The big sup east of Colorado Springs was just an absolute beast. That thing was actually moving just west of due south for awhile. Talk about a storm dominating it's environment. Wow.

Pretty interesting, given that last night at the same time the same thing was happening just 50 miles NW. That thing plagued the south metro Denver area till about 2 AM, rebuilding in the same area every time it tried to move, and actually moving west toward the foothills for an hour or three. More widespread hail and heavy rain than large hail in that one, and smaller tornadoes. Castle Rock had a report of 8 inches of hail requiring snowplows... :snowing:

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vxyp2r.jpg

I was on this cell at the time of this radar grab, working with nothing but super-tiny radar on a regular cell phone (non smart phone). Made some poor navigational decisions, so I was approaching the cell directly from the north. Was faced with having to either core punch (while on a dirt road!) or turn back, so I had to turn back. Still got some great mammatus tho!!

post-378-0-16324700-1339128354_thumb.jpg

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..NRN PLAINS

THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL

POSITION BREED LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT

OF THE SEVERE THREAT. THE NAM REMAINS FASTER AND EVENTUALLY DEPICTS

A MORE NE-SW ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY SUN...WHEREAS THE

ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS A MORE N-S ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS

THAT FRONTAL PROGRESSION INTO A STRONGLY DESTABILIZING BUT CAPPED

AFTERNOON AIRMASS OVER THE DAKOTAS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH AT LEAST

ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY OCCURRING BY EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO FRONTAL LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES...GUIDANCE LARGELY

APPEARS OVERDONE WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS RICH

MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE WRN GULF COAST AT PRESENT. ALTHOUGH

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD

LARGELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SAT AFTERNOON VERSUS UPPER

60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS SHOULD STILL YIELD MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG.

ALTHOUGH STRONGER MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL LAG THE SURFACE FRONT...THEY

SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY.

PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS SHOULD INITIALLY BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY

DAMAGING WINDS. AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE

EVENING...CONVECTION MAY GROW UPSCALE TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY

WITH LARGELY HAIL/WIND THREATS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SAT EVENING/NIGHT IN A

POST-FRONTAL REGIME CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MID-LEVEL

HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT

WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY REMAIN LIMITED...STRONG

EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

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Also, regarding the weekend threat, this is the hodo from the 00z GFS near Winnipeg (and the warm front) at 00z Saturday evening...I'm definitely on a bit higher alert than usual for this one...

64173s.jpg

This is probably one of the best supercell/tornado set-ups we've seen up here since 2007. I think storms are going to initiate somewhere to the south of Brandon shortly after supper. Looks like the support will be there for supercells transitioning into an MCS of some sort after dark.

Definitely on high alert for this one. Also worried about heavy rain with the storms moving quite slowly.

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Where exactly are those holographs from? I can't find any that look quite that impressive. That said, there are some decent parameters along the US/Canada border tomorrow.

Winnipeg, ND, near the U.S./ Canada, where they coincide with the best SVR Wx Parameters...

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