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Long Duration Noreaster - First week of June


Baroclinic Zone

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Crystal clear blue skies here right now. We actually cleared completely overnight and had radiational cooling to the point of developing a thick valley fog, which is now mostly burned off. Very unusual to get radiation fog in this synoptic setup and even at this time of year as it normally occurs in high pressures during the later part of the summer and fall, not on the backside of a nor'easter in late spring/early summer.

The sun may help to destabilize things as the upper level energy pivots eastward from W NY. Could lead to some heavier showers and thundershowers later.

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I will be working on some photos that I took this morning of flooding on the midcoast. Will upload this afternoon.

Still pouring rain. 6.21" so far in the last 24 hours, 4.38" since midnight. WET!

50.0°F

Damned impressive! Send it in to GYX. Lots of places reporting over 5", especially in Cumberland County where some are nearing 6". 4.51" for me and still falling.

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Could be some gusty hailers later today. Only about 500 joules of CAPE but very dry low levels and inverted-v soundings plus super-low WBZ values. Probably non-severe hail but hail nonetheless. May be an active afternoon.

I would love to see some hail. Any areas more likely?

BOX seems "meh: on the hail possibility

ON A FINAL

NOTE...MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERY WX LATE...BUT IT APPEARS THE

BEST LIFT IS BELOW BETTER ICE GROWTH RGNS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL

FORGO MENTIONING THUNDER.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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Damned impressive! Send it in to GYX. Lots of places reporting over 5", especially in Cumberland County where some are nearing 6". 4.51" for me and still falling.

Sent to GYX about half an hour ago. The fetch coming across the GOM, south to north, is incredible. Looks like a firehose on radar.

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I would love to see some hail. Any areas more likely?

BOX seems "meh: on the hail possibility

ON A FINAL

NOTE...MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHOWERY WX LATE...BUT IT APPEARS THE

BEST LIFT IS BELOW BETTER ICE GROWTH RGNS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL

FORGO MENTIONING THUNDER.

-- End Changed Discussion --

All areas at risk.. even to coast. Would like to see a bit more shear to help organize clusters a bit more than just pulsers but still see thunder/hail potential through SNE/NY/NJ/PA. Not sure I see the lift below ice growth region... models seem to have skinny CAPE right on through the IGR.

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All areas at risk.. even to coast. Would like to see a bit more shear to help organize clusters a bit more than just pulsers but still see thunder/hail potential through SNE/NY/NJ/PA. Not sure I see the lift below ice growth region... models seem to have skinny CAPE right on through the IGR.

Yeah I mentioned earlier that I thought tstms would be around this aftn. I didn't quite understand their AFD. That area separating the cloud/no cloud area could have some shwr/tstms too. NW-SE line right towards areas like EWB. Don't think we see much from BOS on NE though.

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All areas at risk.. even to coast. Would like to see a bit more shear to help organize clusters a bit more than just pulsers but still see thunder/hail potential through SNE/NY/NJ/PA. Not sure I see the lift below ice growth region... models seem to have skinny CAPE right on through the IGR.

:weenie:

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I've been in Boston since friday, what were the rainfall totals out in W. Ma?

In Arlington and we've had a few light showers this morning but does not look real promising for sun.

1.95" in Amherst. Berks guys reported around 1.5" I think.

Unrelated question, about what time did the wrf show that line coming through later?

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I'm leaving for NW Jersey this morning for my grandfather's wake and funeral today/tomorrow morning.

Will be miserable driving home tomorrow afternoon going from 65-70 down there to NE wind and 50 when I get home late in the PM

Very sorry to hear about the loss of your grandfather Kevin.

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Very wet in Auburn, Maine. Hope to have some photos later today. The Androscoggin is going to be roaring over the Great Falls. At 9.62 feet.

Should be some great shots with the water going over west pitch, Looks to crest at about 1.5' above flood stage over on river road

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Crystal clear blue skies here right now. We actually cleared completely overnight and had radiational cooling to the point of developing a thick valley fog, which is now mostly burned off. Very unusual to get radiation fog in this synoptic setup and even at this time of year as it normally occurs in high pressures during the later part of the summer and fall, not on the backside of a nor'easter in late spring/early summer.

Random question not related to the nor'easter, but why doesn't radiation fog form very much this time of year? We get it in Stowe Village at the base of Mansfield pretty much any clear night in August/September/October but we don't get it as often in April/May/June.

Is it the solar cycle and long daylight this time of year that makes that extra cooling in the valleys difficult? Later in the summer (like mid/late July onward) it'll be like clock work that we decouple into the 40s and 50s under high pressure, with fog forming at the exact same elevation every morning...like 700-1200ft.

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Random question not related to the nor'easter, but why doesn't radiation fog form very much this time of year? We get it in Stowe Village at the base of Mansfield pretty much any clear night in August/September/October but we don't get it as often in April/May/June.

Is it the solar cycle and long daylight this time of year that makes that extra cooling in the valleys difficult? Later in the summer (like mid/late July onward) it'll be like clock work that we decouple into the 40s and 50s under high pressure, with fog forming at the exact same elevation every morning...like 700-1200ft.

I was commenting on this to my wife the other day. When I drove down into the CT River valley you could see radiation fog but I didn't see it in the Willimantic River valley when I left home. It had that early fallish look to it and you don't see that too often this time of year.

I think it does have something to do with the sun and low level moisture that is different in late August/September. The sun gets up awful early this time of year and so I think that fog doesn't have a chance to form as well.

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I was up till 4 AM today and first hints of light here at that time. No wonder you can't get a lot of radiational fog. The folks in Maine should properly be on Atlantic time so dawn must be ridiculously early.

I was commenting on this to my wife the other day. When I drove down into the CT River valley you could see radiation fog but I didn't see it in the Willimantic River valley when I left home. It had that early fallish look to it and you don't see that too often this time of year.

I think it does have something to do with the sun and low level moisture that is different in late August/September. The sun gets up awful early this time of year and so I think that fog doesn't have a chance to form as well.

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