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Long Duration Noreaster - First week of June

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Whats the sense of how this pattern lasts? Was looking at HPC and they say anomalous amplified pattern 7-10 days perhaps. Their map looks better heading into next weekend. I figure the tomatoes can take about a week of this and then we need warm sun.

Mine are just starting to set, Container garden FTW

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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It's becoming clear that unless that stalling characteristic with QPF actually materializes that flood watch necessity will bust. I've been checking out the obs over the last 12 hours and CT jackpots, while much elsewhere barely made 1 inch. NAM busted way to wet for eastern zones, and this also translates currently into a more showery and less congealed, inundated look to rad as would be required to prime the region enough for much flood. So we wait and see what happens but this even is a meh-er for the time being.

Dry slot is clearing CT albeit slowly ... probably gets up this way into Massachusetts at 8:45pm tonight because that's where I am - haha. But NY City is balmy and beautiful and I suspect CT might make out surprisingly nice here as the afternoon progresses.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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MWN had a few hours of ZR this morning.

I saw that ... I 'm curious how successful accretion really was with 60mph sustain thrashing by the wind. That kind of impact result adds kinetic energy and their temps *(at least when I saw) were 32/32 at the time. Similarly, when it rains hard at 32F the freeze rate is too slow to compensate for the fall rate introducing energy to the micro-physical process. Interesting.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I saw that ... I 'm curious how successful accretion really was with 60mph sustain thrashing by the wind. That kind of impact result adds kinetic energy and their temps *(at least when I saw) were 32/32 at the time. Similarly, when it rains hard at 32F the freeze rate is too slow to compensate for the fall rate introducing energy to the micro-physical process. Interesting.

They briefly got to 30F. Pretty good!

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
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i like LL and his posts and his enthusiasm for wx but he really is best related to NYC wx

i should have put out the rain bucket

another hvy shower rollin thru the melrose,ma area ATM

:( bdr averaged 62.9 for May while BDL averaged 63.8, maybe windsor locks should be considered part of the nyc metro?

:(:( but I understand, I wont post anymore.

Sorry its a nice day down here, take care guys! God bless:)

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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I saw that ... I 'm curious how successful accretion really was with 60mph sustain thrashing by the wind. That kind of impact result adds kinetic energy and their temps *(at least when I saw) were 32/32 at the time. Similarly, when it rains hard at 32F the freeze rate is too slow to compensate for the fall rate introducing energy to the micro-physical process. Interesting.

So does the temp of the surfaces actually increase a bit?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Hey Tip those rains near RI may develop a little more into this evening. I think the question was how this will develop a WCB into Maine and whether or not it will clip NE MA...in other words, not a high confidence watch. We'll see this aftn.

Yeah...I hear you... I'm looking at the NAM's 12z QPF placement through it's 84 hours of nearer term into never term and it's much more progressive overall, not showing the stalled appeal of previous cycles. I am them factoring in the fact that its already busted too high over eastern zones and so far in SW Maine, and it all doesn't sit very well.

So, if it was a low confidence thing all along, it is what it is then, but at this point I don't see how flood can be achieved because again, the 2-3" that verified as barely an inch was necessary in these early innings to prime the region, and I don't see it raining in this Mon-Wed at a faster rate than hydrology can uptake.

So much for the 2006 possible analog.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah...I hear you... I'm looking at the NAM's 12z QPF placement through it's 84 hours of nearer term into never term and it's much more progressive overall, not showing the stalled appeal of previous cycles. I am them factoring in the fact that its already busted too high over eastern zones and so far in SW Maine, and it all doesn't sit very well.

So, if it was a low confidence thing all along, it is what it is then, but at this point I don't see how flood can be achieved because again, the 2-3" that verified as barely an inch was necessary in these early innings to prime the region, and I don't see it raining in this Mon-Wed at a faster rate than hydrology can uptake.

So much for the 2006 possible analog.

I think for this area it was much more questionable. Up near PWM and areas near there..probably several inches on the way.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
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LOL..who wears jeans in the summer? You just wear a long sleeved shirt and shorts if it's a bit cool out. Jeans are not to be worn after April..until october. Weak, weak sauce

Dave lives in a cold climate, you live in the MA. Also, if you do man's work like construction, jeans are often worn for safety reasons.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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So does the temp of the surfaces actually increase a bit?

It's harder to detect that in a saturated environment... But take a dry radiative cooling scenario: If the wind stays up, the temperature doesn't drop as much. There is friction present that adds small amounts of compensating kinetic energy to the system as it radiates energy away. Contrasting, when the air "decouples", as we like to say in Met parlance, the wind calms, the friction ceases, and the radiation then becomes the dominant factor in the system - temps plummets.

In a water saturated system, though, that whole models gets compressed to very minute scales. Almost becomes a quantum sort of thing..really. The rain drops when they impact any surface do impart some kinetic energy; if the air is deeply beneath 0C *(32F), that amount of kinetic energy cannot compensate for the rate at which the surface absorbs, and the liquid mass of the drop switches phase states very quickly. But if the temperature is closer to 0C, the rate of energy exchange during phase transition may closer to equal the kinetic energy delivered by impact of the droplet. So you can under some circumstances not witness accretion when at 0C if rain fall rates are sufficiently large.

The same logic (I am wondering) if it would apply at 32F with 60mph winds driving droplets along like bullets. They are going to impart even more kinetic energy then normal fall velocities of droplets because of the momentum gathered by the wind. One would think less accretion.

However, Scott was mentioning that they dipped to 30F (~-1C). some insider should call them, or check the metar if possible, and find out if there was an accretion measurement. It's an interesting, albeit tedious for some, question.

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