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Long Duration Noreaster - First week of June

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Not really sure I see this as a nor-easter but meh, either way, pounding in route.

The NAM's 12z was pretty awesome. Really. Over 2" of rain with duration LIs below 0 the whole time? There could be some convective elements embedded in a large area of yellow-orange on rad that really lay down the law in a few locations.

I was just looking at U.S. Drought Monitor and their latest numbers still have us in D2 conditions across much of the area, despite the cumulative rains over the last month. Maybe this will finally wipe that out.

drmon.gif

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amarshall

amarshall

Posted
Posted

Coastal forecast

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING

THIS AFTERNOON

E WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

TONIGHT

SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SAT

SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE

AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SHOWERS. VSBY 1 NM

OR LESS.

SAT NIGHT

SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT

AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SHOWERS. VSBY

1 NM OR LESS.

SUN

SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS

UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY.

SUN NIGHT

NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT

AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. SHOWERS

LIKELY.

MON

NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO

8 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY.

MON NIGHT

NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. A CHANCE OF

SHOWERS.

TUE

NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT

N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS

3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Will have to watch the back end of the low and almost a comma head and coastal front induced arecof moderate rains in NE MA possibly into the BOS area. The models have been shifting around a bit with the heavy rain, but it looks like the Maine coast..NH coast and into the foothills get soaked. Otherwise lingering lighter almost ocean effect rains will persist and slowly rack up totals through Tuesday along coastal areas.

Sunday night looks windy along the coast and maybe tide problems into Monday as well.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

A noreaster with southeast winds and the primary cutting over the Eastern lakes?

It's an occluding triple point low that secondaries somewhere up near Cape ann and stalls. That's not a noreaster

I guess the Sunday through Tuesday NE winds don't count?

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Not really sure I see this as a nor-easter but meh, either way, pounding in route.

The NAM's 12z was pretty awesome. Really. Over 2" of rain with duration LIs below 0 the whole time? There could be some convective elements embedded in a large area of yellow-orange on rad that really lay down the law in a few locations.

I was just looking at U.S. Drought Monitor and their latest numbers still have us in D2 conditions across much of the area, despite the cumulative rains over the last month. Maybe this will finally wipe that out.

The initial round may not be considered a noreaster but the stuff by Mon/Tues is imo.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

So that's what you'd call a noreaster? a storm that sits to our northeast and delivers ne wind and clouds inland with light rain along coast. Please check the definition of noreaster

Look at a model first before speaking. The low sits SE of the Cape and stalls after primary cuts west and secondary forms. This is also for New England..not just SNE. Maine will get an all out nor'easter.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I d0n't agree and I think most would agree with me. This is not a noreaster. maybe it morphs into some pseudo noreaster..but it;s not a true noreaster.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...

For all intents and purposes it's gusty NE winds Sunday aftn through Tuesday with rain and even coastal flooding. LOL, call it what you want I guess. Not all nor'easters have to be 980 lows at the benchmark. For this time of year, I'd say it qualifies as one..considering you'll be cloudy and cold into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It's not a blizzard of '78 storm, but for all intents and purposes..it's a nor'easter for most except CT.

This storm is probably both actually.

Fwiw, I feel the CCB presence should at a minimum be a requirement for any "Nor'easter" characteristic of a coastal storm.

That's not the case at least through Sunday. It is not even clear to me that we can call this a coastal storm in that time, because too much of the kinematics are balled up into the GL along with a dominant surface reflection there.

That said, there is a wave on the triple point that slowly does become dominant 24 to 36 hours after the main QPF is by the boards; that stacked structure then migrates/captures just SE of LI and we get the NE wind and lighter stuff Monday or thereabouts to annoy.

Either way you cut it... the beautiful weather on the weekends era is about to end with a loud exclamation point! It may not be raining all of Saturday, and all of Sunday, but it's just not an out-doorsy vibe there by any stretch. And it will probably be down right ugly in the middle.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Isn't it an open question as to how much actually falls southwest of 495 or even ORH ?

Most of ORH and west rains come tomorrow, but they'll probably get periods of sheet rains with moist ENE upslope flow. I don't see that type of rain for you, but some signs of an inv trough in the interior along with a little daytime heating to possibly squeeze out some showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

The 12z nam output is just horrible...Just days and days of 50s with periods of rain/drizzle....going into NEXT weekend....ugh

120603/1500Z 51 34012KT 55.7F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.50 0| 0|100

120603/1800Z 54 35013KT 50.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53 0| 0|100

120603/2100Z 57 01014KT 52.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53 0| 0| 0

120604/0000Z 60 01010KT 49.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

120604/0300Z 63 36009KT 46.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

120604/0600Z 66 36008KT 47.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

120604/0900Z 69 02007KT 46.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

120604/1200Z 72 02008KT 48.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

This storm is probably both actually.

Fwiw, I feel the CCB presence should at a minimum be a requirement for any "Nor'easter" characteristic of a coastal storm.

That's not the case at least through Sunday. It is not even clear to me that we can call this a coastal storm in that time, because too much of the kinematics are balled up into the GL along with a dominant surface reflection there.

That said, there is a wave on the triple point that slowly does become dominant 24 to 36 hours after the main QPF is by the boards; that stacked structure then migrates/captures just SE of LI and we get the NE wind and lighter stuff Monday or thereabouts to annoy.

Either way you cut it... the beautiful weather on the weekends era is about to end with a loud exclamation point! It may not be raining all of Saturday, and all of Sunday, but it's just not an out-doorsy vibe there by any stretch. And it will probably be down right ugly in the middle.

Yeah that's how I see it and the point of the thread. Sunday might be an in between day SW and W of BOS while north shore is wet, and then it gradually sinks SW Sunday Night and Monday.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

The 12z nam output is just horrible...Just days and days of 50s with periods of rain/drizzle....going into NEXT weekend....ugh

120603/1500Z 51 34012KT 55.7F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.50 0| 0|100

120603/1800Z 54 35013KT 50.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53 0| 0|100

120603/2100Z 57 01014KT 52.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53 0| 0| 0

120604/0000Z 60 01010KT 49.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.53 0| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

120604/0300Z 63 36009KT 46.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

120604/0600Z 66 36008KT 47.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

120604/0900Z 69 02007KT 46.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

120604/1200Z 72 02008KT 48.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

Perfect weather in my line of work for early June...lol Starting June 20, I fully expect 85F/50 with a slight breeze and an occasional cloud.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Well, it will suck, but it is not training thunderstorms that dump 8" in 6 hours or whatever.

All of that water is long gone I would think.

Yeah, not concerned about renewed flooding, but there are roads that are absolutely destroyed that will not benefit from even some light flowing water

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