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June 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


jburns

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Both the GFS and Euro have had a moderate warm bias recently. The Euro has had a moderate warm bias for a good while, but the GFS warmth is fairly new.

http://www.emc.ncep....html/mnz56.html

Anyway, the Euro is far warmer than the GFS fwiw. Euro is a bit of an outlier it appears. 28+ C 850's? That would almost have to be near alltime highs for the southern Apps!

Goofy has continued to give me temps in the mid 90's for just a couple of days in the long range and the average temps here are around 90 deg. I'll take that for late June ;) It's been a great start to summer and I hope it continues :wub:

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Speaking of which...I'm hearing in other subforums that we might have a humdinger of a heat wave on the way week after this coming. Since I am not the most attentive of model-watchers, I thought I'd put it to the group: anyone keeping an eye on the long range?

Todays point and click on MHX has lowered our temps late week. They were flirting with a high of 93 the other day for Thursday now its down to 91 and back into the 80's by next weekend.

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Forest fire in the Croatan National Forest pretty obvious on vis loop....looks like a prescribed burn got out of control and so far 2800 acres have burned...luckily its got lots of roads and fire breaks so they should get it under control fairly quickly.....

time sensitive

http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html

edit: love this CMC loop to bad the chances of it panning out are slim to none.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012061712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

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Not sure if they are right but accuweather is forecasting highs of near 100 in Atlanta every day from June 25-29.

FFC

TEMPS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THIS WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...WITH MEX GUIDANCE APPROACHING 100 IN SOME AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET...BUT IN ANY CASE TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

I'm doubtful of this though, I'm thinking mid 90s at best.

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So this week we'll have above normal temps, even moreso by late in the week into next weekend where GFS MOS supports highs a general 4-7 degrees above normal, with building humidity (Current CLT normal high is 88). Weak cold front approaches from the NW through the weekend which increases afternoon thunderstorm chances with the hot, moist env in place.

As we go into next week, the Euro Ensemble, GFS Super Ensemble, and Canadian Ensemble all like the idea of a trough building over the NE and extending south, supporting the idea of temperatures falling back closer to normal.

87296947.png

58149785.png

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CNF fire up to 8000 acres so it tripled in size in a day, they have it less than 10% contained and are hoping backburns are going to contain by the June 25th......they need to hurry the next 4-5 days are going to see lots of heat and a increase in winds not a good mix......the fire was a prescribed burn of a 2,000 acre block that just happens to be in the middle of 160,000 acre National Forest so no matter which way the wind blows there is plenty of forest to burn.

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Can't seem to see it on radar any longer...any idea why? Earlier in the day, WRAL posted the following:

601122_10151052117174258_1742156081_n.jpg

The smoke from the wildfire in southeastern North Carolina is showing up quite nicely in the dual-pol data from the Morehead City radar. Top is reflectivity, bottom is the correlation coefficient. The blue areas in the CC image show lower values, suggesting a wider range of target shapes suggesting smoke. — WRAL Nate Johnson

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Visibility just dropped from 10 miles down to 3 miles as thick smoke from the fire rolled in. This makes 3 stinking summers in a row with this thick nasty smoke from these fires.

It can help keep the temp down during the day. :D

One day last year, I thought it was a cloudy day when it was actually smoke all in the sky. It look red outside with falling ash but the temps were 10 degrees cooler than forecast.

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0z NAM says 101 in NYC :o

nx2VJ.gif

For us NC folk, it's gon' be hot. :maphot::sizzle:

xu0km.gif

They can have all that heat...all summer in fact lol. It's going to be quite a shock to their system though since they have been pretty cool for most of the spring.

Meanwhile, ironically given the warm winter/spring, the heat has not been bad here so far this june....certainly not nearly as bad it can be this time of year. Looks like 93 to 95 here though later in the week so I hope the ensembles are right.

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They can have all that heat...all summer in fact lol. It's going to be quite a shock to their system though since they have been pretty cool for most of the spring.

Meanwhile, ironically given the warm winter/spring, the heat has not been bad here so far this june....certainly not nearly as bad it can be this time of year. Looks like 93 to 95 here though later in the week so I hope the ensembles are right.

I have my own benchmark of when the heat locks in and summer really begins. This Thursday here is the first appearance of forecasted morning lows of 70 or above. Yuck.

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Stays in the Upper 80's to low 90's here through Saturday then looks to get a little warmer, but all the uncertainty with the potential system in the gulf I don't know if it rains here Fri-Mon or it stays to the south and we stay hot and dry. 88 here today. Average is 91 so we are still slightly below average.

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