buckeyefan1 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Both the GFS and Euro have had a moderate warm bias recently. The Euro has had a moderate warm bias for a good while, but the GFS warmth is fairly new. http://www.emc.ncep....html/mnz56.html Anyway, the Euro is far warmer than the GFS fwiw. Euro is a bit of an outlier it appears. 28+ C 850's? That would almost have to be near alltime highs for the southern Apps! Goofy has continued to give me temps in the mid 90's for just a couple of days in the long range and the average temps here are around 90 deg. I'll take that for late June It's been a great start to summer and I hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 12Z Euro still has some hefty heat but centers it more in the heartland this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Speaking of which...I'm hearing in other subforums that we might have a humdinger of a heat wave on the way week after this coming. Since I am not the most attentive of model-watchers, I thought I'd put it to the group: anyone keeping an eye on the long range? Todays point and click on MHX has lowered our temps late week. They were flirting with a high of 93 the other day for Thursday now its down to 91 and back into the 80's by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Lol. Has anyone seen the 12z CMC? A nice 88 and sunny today. Looks like this for the next 6 days unless the CMC is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Forest fire in the Croatan National Forest pretty obvious on vis loop....looks like a prescribed burn got out of control and so far 2800 acres have burned...luckily its got lots of roads and fire breaks so they should get it under control fairly quickly..... time sensitive http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html edit: love this CMC loop to bad the chances of it panning out are slim to none. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012061712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 KSAV bottomed out at 64 last night... did a triathlon this morning and it was quite chilly going right from the swim to the bike. And my sunglasses fogged right over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Not sure if they are right but accuweather is forecasting highs of near 100 in Atlanta every day from June 25-29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Here is informational video I received from WeatherGeek Pro about an upgrade version coming this week. http://vimeo.com/44210511 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Not sure if they are right but accuweather is forecasting highs of near 100 in Atlanta every day from June 25-29. FFC TEMPS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THIS WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...WITH MEX GUIDANCE APPROACHING 100 IN SOME AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE THAT WARM JUST YET...BUT IN ANY CASE TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. I'm doubtful of this though, I'm thinking mid 90s at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Yea, I just read that this morning. I think we'll have just enough return of moisture to keep them from the 100 degree mark. And it doesn't look like anything to long lasting either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Got a nice shower last night dropping 0.55" Northern Jackson saw around 1 - 1.5", while the southern section saw under a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Got a little smoke from the forest fires hanging around right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 So this week we'll have above normal temps, even moreso by late in the week into next weekend where GFS MOS supports highs a general 4-7 degrees above normal, with building humidity (Current CLT normal high is 88). Weak cold front approaches from the NW through the weekend which increases afternoon thunderstorm chances with the hot, moist env in place. As we go into next week, the Euro Ensemble, GFS Super Ensemble, and Canadian Ensemble all like the idea of a trough building over the NE and extending south, supporting the idea of temperatures falling back closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Currently 85 outside and sunny. The 12z CMC was crazy and now the GFS and Euro looks like they have the Florida low so maybe we see rain this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 CNF fire up to 8000 acres so it tripled in size in a day, they have it less than 10% contained and are hoping backburns are going to contain by the June 25th......they need to hurry the next 4-5 days are going to see lots of heat and a increase in winds not a good mix......the fire was a prescribed burn of a 2,000 acre block that just happens to be in the middle of 160,000 acre National Forest so no matter which way the wind blows there is plenty of forest to burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Visibility just dropped from 10 miles down to 3 miles as thick smoke from the fire rolled in. This makes 3 stinking summers in a row with this thick nasty smoke from these fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Can't seem to see it on radar any longer...any idea why? Earlier in the day, WRAL posted the following: The smoke from the wildfire in southeastern North Carolina is showing up quite nicely in the dual-pol data from the Morehead City radar. Top is reflectivity, bottom is the correlation coefficient. The blue areas in the CC image show lower values, suggesting a wider range of target shapes suggesting smoke. — WRAL Nate Johnson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Visibility just dropped from 10 miles down to 3 miles as thick smoke from the fire rolled in. This makes 3 stinking summers in a row with this thick nasty smoke from these fires. It can help keep the temp down during the day. One day last year, I thought it was a cloudy day when it was actually smoke all in the sky. It look red outside with falling ash but the temps were 10 degrees cooler than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 0z NAM says 101 in NYC For us NC folk, it's gon' be hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 0z NAM says 101 in NYC For us NC folk, it's gon' be hot. They can have all that heat...all summer in fact lol. It's going to be quite a shock to their system though since they have been pretty cool for most of the spring. Meanwhile, ironically given the warm winter/spring, the heat has not been bad here so far this june....certainly not nearly as bad it can be this time of year. Looks like 93 to 95 here though later in the week so I hope the ensembles are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 They can have all that heat...all summer in fact lol. It's going to be quite a shock to their system though since they have been pretty cool for most of the spring. Meanwhile, ironically given the warm winter/spring, the heat has not been bad here so far this june....certainly not nearly as bad it can be this time of year. Looks like 93 to 95 here though later in the week so I hope the ensembles are right. I have my own benchmark of when the heat locks in and summer really begins. This Thursday here is the first appearance of forecasted morning lows of 70 or above. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 DNF fire up to 22,000 acres. This one went from 2800 acres to 22,000 in a hurry. Surprisingly theres not much if any smoke being produced right now so the air quality conditions have improved. Feels more like summer out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 JB says the cool regime returns to the East by June 28. https://p.twimg.com/AvxpEJKCMAAdJzf.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 JB says the cool regime returns to the East by June 28. https://p.twimg.com/...EJKCMAAdJzf.jpg The kiss of death. The heat is coming for sure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 True kiss of death for sure!lol!expect record heat by the 28th and after ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 I have my own benchmark of when the heat locks in and summer really begins. This Thursday here is the first appearance of forecasted morning lows of 70 or above. Yuck. Maybe the heat won't lock in this summer. The cold didn't lock in this past winter did it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Stays in the Upper 80's to low 90's here through Saturday then looks to get a little warmer, but all the uncertainty with the potential system in the gulf I don't know if it rains here Fri-Mon or it stays to the south and we stay hot and dry. 88 here today. Average is 91 so we are still slightly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 20, 2012 Author Share Posted June 20, 2012 Maybe the heat won't lock in this summer. The cold didn't lock in this past winter did it ? It doesn't work that way. There's a reason it's called the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 For those that have a SW NC connection. A 2.0 Magnitude Earthquake occurred last night 11mi SW of Sylva. Link... http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/se062012a#summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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