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June 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


jburns

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Interesting fact of the day for Columbus, GA: Last June saw the first 8 days of June stay above 96 degrees°. This June? We've topped the 90 degree mark once, 91°, on June 3. In fact, last June saw only TWO days stay BELOW 92°! With rain moving in this weekend, it looks like we'll stay on the cooler side for the next week. Bring on the rain baby!

I know some are complaining about the -NAO showing up now instead of during winter. Frankly, I'd rather have it now and spare us a brutal summer! That said, let's see if we can't get her to come around next January! ;)

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Wow, congrats to you too!! I hope one day to see above normal next to my name again, as opposed to abbi normal, lol. T

It will happen Tony :wub:

Not to worry. You will always have abnormal next to your name.

:lol:

so far this summer has been awesome! high yesterday was 77, followed by more rain last evening. almost 2.5" the last week or so - beats the last couple of summers but a long shot

I have enjoyed this wonderful start to summer. :wub: I'll be glad when the flashbacks from the past few years of heat and drought finally stop :lol:

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Not to worry. You will always have abnormal next to your name.

Lol, well, I'm tough and can take it. My eye doc friend tells me constantly, because I'm color blind, I'm defective. I think I'd rather be abnormal than defective :)

Nothing defective about this day..abnormal maybe... wind out of the east. Low humidity. I'll take a month of these, then take more of the same for July, and Aug. T

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Interesting fact of the day for Columbus, GA: Last June saw the first 8 days of June stay above 96 degrees°. This June? We've topped the 90 degree mark once, 91°, on June 3. In fact, last June saw only TWO days stay BELOW 92°! With rain moving in this weekend, it looks like we'll stay on the cooler side for the next week. Bring on the rain baby!

I know some are complaining about the -NAO showing up now instead of during winter. Frankly, I'd rather have it now and spare us a brutal summer! That said, let's see if we can't get her to come around next January! ;)

CMan....I don't know where you've been hanging out, but I haven't heard any complaining at all :) Anyway, it had to flip eventually. Hot winter, cool summer...it's only fair!!

Have you seen any hail yet?? Tony

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Who wants a tropical system to deal with right after this?

p120i00.gif

Me too! I always want tropical systems. :guitar:

I need a ton of rain to fill my lakes and the creeks around here are running very low. So even if I got 2 or 3 inches, I need a lot more.

That said, the rain is certainly more tropical in nature as the radar is underestimating the rain it would seem. Even the lightest returns are fairly decent. Not too surprising with PWS around 1.7 inches per meso analysis here (quite a sharp contrast between here and the nc foothills/piedmont right now...0.80 over much nc..which of course will change quickly). And those amounts are expected to rise to near 2 inches later today/tonight (already around 1.8 inches around atlanta). So whatever is out there will be efficient rain producers.

Despite how good the situation looks, I'm still afraid of being screwed giving what has happened here this year and the fact every time there are high POPS is when it seems to happen most (best rain I've gotten was when pops were in the 20 to 40% range).

So I got my fingers crossed. But with such high chances and a slow moving system, it looks promising.

Edit as of 11:18am. Looks like a large are of heavy rain is heading toward west georgia.(if it holds together, which I think it will)_ With pws that high, they should get some very good totals. Looks like this will mainly miss me (naturally), although I might get clipped. I just hope something forms just to the east tof it as we get a little bit of daytime heating. Temps however are only a few degrees warmer than here at 11 am but Visible shots show a few breaks in the clouds in central ga so we'll see.

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Currently 77 and just finished raining. We've rained everyday since June 5th excluding June 8th. :D

I see we are in a 2% tornado area, 5% wind and hail today. The sun is trying to come out.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

944 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT STILL EXISTS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA...

.UPDATE...

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT

MORE SIGNIFICANT HEATING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS REGION TODAY MAINLY

ACROSS NE FL WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SE

GA THIS MORNING BEFORE HEATING CREATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS

STILL CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL STILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

POTENTIAL IN TSTM ACTIVITY BUT A FASTER STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE

NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FLOODING. GUSTY

WINDS TO 50-60 MPH...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE

WITH STORM ACTIVITY AND A FEW ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF

THE QUESTION AND WITH SURFACE HELICITY VALUES NEAR 200 M2/S2 AN

ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE

QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A GENERALLY DRY NIGHT EXPECTED AFTER

MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DEEP

MOISTURE OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1027 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN AL...FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101527Z - 101700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...PARTICULARLY

IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING

SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE

PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN THE

UPCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL PROGS IN SUGGESTING

THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY

MIGRATING INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS.

ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY

INTENSIFYING EAST OF MOBILE BAY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF

MEXICO...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE

LINE...ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST INLAND OF

THE COAST...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA

PANHANDLE. THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...COUPLED WITH MODESTLY

LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...MAY CONTINUE TO

SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES

THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH DEGREE OF

SATURATION IN LOWER LEVELS...ALONG WITH SIZABLE CAPE. AND INLAND

ADVECTION OF LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS

THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN

GEORGIA...AS A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF

THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER

MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SUBSTANTIVE

RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON... AS

THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA

AND WESTERN GEORGIA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE RISK FOR

TORNADOES COULD INCREASE...BOTH WITHIN THE LINE...AND IN A WEAK

LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD

OF IT.

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.55" from the batch last night. I REALLY like the trajectory of the rains coming out of the GoM. It looks like a direct hit on the Atlanta Metro to me. It is going to be an epic day of rains later today around here I do believe.

Yeah, that's what I thought last night looking at the rain coming out of the gulf, but it still managed to mostly miss me. I got .3 over night and this morning. Hope it's aim gets better today, lol. Tony

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1027 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

Tornado watch hoisted for this area now. Starts at 11:45CT


TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

TORNADO WATCH 368 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GAC007-037-053-061-087-095-099-131-145-177-193-197-201-205-215-
239-243-249-253-259-261-263-269-273-307-110000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0368.120610T1645Z-120611T0000Z/

GA
.    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAKER                CALHOUN             CHATTAHOOCHEE
CLAY                 DECATUR             DOUGHERTY
EARLY                GRADY               HARRIS
LEE                  MACON               MARION
MILLER               MITCHELL            MUSCOGEE
QUITMAN              RANDOLPH            SCHLEY
SEMINOLE             STEWART             SUMTER
TALBOT               TAYLOR              TERRELL
WEBSTER
$$


ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...TAE...MOB...

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CAE has picked up .03 with the sprinkles late this morning and I :wub: to see discussions like these.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

1058 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

TODAY...EAST TO WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE

NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ONCE THE FRONT

PUSHES THROUGH...BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN

LOW-LEVELS. ALOFT...WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A

SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS

FLOW IS BRINGING MOISTURE IN MID-LEVELS TO THE REGION FROM THE

GULF OF MEXICO. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...BRINGING

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO

OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH AN ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORM NOT BEING OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BIGGEST ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL

LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL BE

COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...NOT CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER 80S

NORTH...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR

MOST AREAS. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT

WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE. HEAVY

RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH

THE NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS

CONTINUING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DIURNAL DROP OFF IN OVERNIGHT

TEMPERATURES. THUS LOWS WILL FALL DOWN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

MODELS SHIFT UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...

MAINTAINING VERY HIGH VALUES OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER OUR

REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION EXPECTED MONDAY.

LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF

SUNSHINE/DIURNAL HEATING...BETTER INSTABILITY EXPECTED MONDAY IN

THE LOW LEVEL WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH UPPER ENERGY AND COOLER

TEMPS ALOFT APPROACHING THE REGION...BUT MAIN CONCERN WILL

CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER

VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. OFFICIAL FORECAST PROVIDES TOTAL QPF

AMOUNTS INTO WEDNESDAY OVER 2 INCHES. IT APPEARS CSRA AMOUNTS

WILL BE HIGHER AGAIN ON MONDAY...WHERE THE RAIN IS NEEDED THE

MOST.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

934 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN NEWBERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

* AT 931 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEWBERRY...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

NEWBERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY

SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3

3...6 7 7 2.

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