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June 2012 Obs and Discussion Thread


jburns

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My cousin Fanny Lou wants to get married, and her hair was sort of blond before the mange took it. I've got possums here, but I can never tell it they are dead. I got Fanny Lou to check last time, but that's how she got the mange.

Nights are still coolish here. I was under two sheets and a blanket this morning as I didn't want to get up and turn off the fan. I don't mind a hot day as much when I get cool nights. Now if I can just get some dead possum rains!! T

You're going to owe me big time. It's hard work making a TS and then turning it toward you despite NHC predictions for it to go west. I'm going to need another possum.

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I'll get you a barrel of blond possums, if you can make it rain in this desert!

And now the heat is here at night too. But I can't discount your cool June up until now. Nice work.... but it could be getting rain down here is beyond your considerable skills. Still, I hold out hope, though you only have a week!

And as long is it doesn't get to 100 by July 4th, I expect this won't be the worst summer of my imaginings.

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90/72 is making for another hot day, but at least this afternoon I'm not sweltering at the ballfield like I was yesterday at this time :lol: Looks like there are some good thunder boomers just to my north and with any luck, one might find me before tonights ball game and cool things off ^_^

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New Davis Weatherlink observation station on Grandmother Mountain at 4600 feet.

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/wunetv01/

This will come in handy to show the difference in temperature from 4600 feet to the Grandfather Summitt observation at 5600 feet.

I have not been up to the Summitt on Grandmother Mountain yet to see if the anemometer has good clearance.

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18Z GFS is roasting. High of 105 for KATL next Sunday with a good 5-6 days of mid 90's to low 100's. The 850's are 24-26c.

I saw that run, YIKES!!!! :yikes: Atlanta hasn't hit 100 degrees or higher since August 2007 so I guess were due for it. Thank God for air conditioning! I'll never forget that heatwave, my first week of high school (freshman year) was during the peak of it. Having to walk to and from school in it was absolutely no fun. Unfortunately I'm concerned that kind of heat is going to put a strain on the power grids.

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I saw that run, YIKES!!!! :yikes: Atlanta hasn't hit 100 degrees or higher since August 2007 so I guess were due for it. Thank God for air conditioning! I'll never forget that heatwave, my first week of high school (freshman year) was during the peak of it. Having to walk to and from school in it was absolutely no fun. Unfortunately I'm concerned that kind of heat is going to put a strain on the power grids.

Last year the GFS showed quite a few monster heat waves that never happened. I think that this could verify this time. 105 is hard to believe but 100 could be a target next weekend.

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NWS BMX was forecasting upper 90s this week but then this:

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. East wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.

Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.

BTW, this is my first post in months :santa:

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Last year the GFS showed quite a few monster heat waves that never happened. I think that this could verify this time. 105 is hard to believe but 100 could be a target next weekend.

Locally, everyone seems to be staying conservative, only going about as high as the mid 90s from Thu-Mon. TWC is forecasting 99 Fri here, and Accuweather is forecasting 101 Sat. There seems to be some decent model agreement among the GFS/CMC/ECMWF on this heatwave so I agree it could verify this time around since it's not too far out from now.

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This forecast looks to be dead on. End of the week we are looking at highs in the mid to upper 90 approaching 100 around here.

:lol: Your "kiss of death" post is turning out to be 100% accurate! The temps at 850 mb are incredible, a good 24+ C. You know it's bad when the Euro shows 2m temperatures in the 111+ range across Tennessee and Kentucky!

I went ahead and forecasted the upper 90s for Friday and Saturday. I even told my viewers I didn't have the guts to put 100° for either of those days... Instead, I went 98. haha!

post-1807-0-80006500-1340623470_thumb.jp

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I saw that run, YIKES!!!! :yikes: Atlanta hasn't hit 100 degrees or higher since August 2007 so I guess were due for it. Thank God for air conditioning! I'll never forget that heatwave, my first week of high school (freshman year) was during the peak of it. Having to walk to and from school in it was absolutely no fun. Unfortunately I'm concerned that kind of heat is going to put a strain on the power grids.

It's amazing to me how hard it seems to be for Atlanta to hit 100, while it's so easy out here and many other places. With all the buildings, concrete, asphalt, heat island(starting warmer than most areas a lot of times), etc you would think it would be easy but they are always one of the coolest areas in any heat wave. Meanwhile, it's almost easy to hit 100 where I am. They are at a higher elevation but it shouldn't make that huge of a difference all the time, at least you would think.

Plus it's actually annoying, in the summer and the winter (because they are never as cold at night as virtually everywhere else on calm nights). When people look back at the records, they always reference/look at Atl..when so many other areas of north ga are colder or hotter. So many times their temps don't accurately represent a lot, if not the majority, of north ga.

Just a little pet peeve of mine, it's like no where else matters or something lol.

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During the last 4 hours, we've gone from 30% to 40% to 50% chance of showers and storms for this afternoon, and there's hardly a decent cloud structure in most of NC, let alone the RAH forecast area. Hopefully something will fire as the cold front get closer, but I don't see anything at all happening for what's left of the afternoon.

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During the last 4 hours, we've gone from 30% to 40% to 50% chance of showers and storms for this afternoon, and there's hardly a decent cloud structure in most of NC, let alone the RAH forecast area. Hopefully something will fire as the cold front get closer, but I don't see anything at all happening for what's left of the afternoon.

Two days in a row of slight risk and I havent even heard distant thunder.....still plenty of time for this to happen but outside of the line sinking south out of Va I dont see much reason to get excited. That said SPC came out with this a bit ago....edit they just issued a STW for eastern NC

WOUS64 KWNS 252131

WOU9

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 429

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

535 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC013-015-029-041-049-053-055-065-069-073-077-079-083-091-095-

101-103-107-117-127-131-137-139-143-147-177-181-183-185-187-191-

195-260500-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0429.120625T2135Z-120626T0500Z/

NC

. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN

CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK

DARE EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN

GATES GRANVILLE GREENE

HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE

JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR

MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON

PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS

PITT TYRRELL VANCE

WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON

WAYNE WILSON

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Meh looks like NE NC gonna get blasted, guess we will see what those storms firing north of RAH along the NC/VA border do, the western end of that "line" has had trouble sustaining...

Parameters still good IMBY 3000 cape, LI -6/-7, 35-40 knts of shear that line just needs to hurry the hell up so it can tap all that energy.

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