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June observations and discussions...


ag3

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Yea doubt we see anything today. But still gonna be an awesome day regardless dude

There won't be a lot of rain but it's still going to be mostly cloudy with isolated showers later today. At least it's supposed to be in the upper 70s before the clouds/few showers move in.

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Usually when a month is wet it's also cool. Yet we managed to be several degrees above normal despite the cloudy days and rain.

Night time minima were well above normal. I recorded 13 nights above 60 degrees, and one of them was > 70 degrees. That's incredible for the month of May. Average lows don't hit 60F until around mid June.

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I dont buy the HRRRRRRRR. Mountains and stable environment will kill off those storms. They already look much weaker than they did an hour or two ago and haven't even hit the big mountains yet.

It's probably overdone now, due to the lack of surface-based instability. Dewpoints only in the low or middle 50s this afternoon.The 12z 4KM WRF just has lines of showers falling apart before reaching NYC.

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mcd1027.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN/ERN PA...NERN WV...NRN VA...MUCH OF

MD/DE...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NJ...SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031737Z - 032000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS

AFTERNOON...AND A MARGINALLY SVR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE

ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCOMPANYING A DIFFERENTIAL

HEATING BOUNDARY ARCS FROM CNTRL/SRN PA INTO SERN NY OVER THE SRN

FRINGES OF THE EXPANSIVE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECK SURROUNDING BROAD

CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NERN STATES. THIS ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS

FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY -- I.E.

0-3-KM AGL LAPSE RATES ALREADY REACHING 8-9 C/KM OWING TO STRONG

INSOLATION. CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC

ASCENT INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL BE STEERED ESEWD GIVEN

30-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW OVER THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE

BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SFC

DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES

NEARING 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS

UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN THE

STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING MODEST DEEP SHEAR...AND

COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES -- I.E. AROUND -20C AT 500 MB PER 12Z

RAOBS -- THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL

HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. ONE

OR TWO LINE SEGMENTS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS.

HOWEVER...STORM STRENGTH WILL GREATLY BE MITIGATED BY THE ABSENCE OF

RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / STRONGER BUOYANCY. STORMS WILL DECREASE

IN NUMBER/INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION

COMMENCES.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

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WU radar shows a 1.25" max hail core with that. That cell will probably get warned soon.

Edit. Warned:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

150 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOMERVILLE...

EAST CENTRAL HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

ANNANDALE...OR 14 MILES WEST OF SOMERVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST

AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

WHITE HOUSE STATION AROUND 155 PM EDT...

BRIDGEWATER AND FLAGTOWN AROUND 215 PM EDT...

SOMERVILLE AROUND 220 PM EDT...

MANVILLE...MILLSTONE AND MARTINSVILLE AROUND 225 PM EDT...

BOUND BROOK AND MIDDLESEX AROUND 230 PM EDT...

SOMERSET AROUND 240 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE

IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD

TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...

PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SE

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Very gusty winds with the steep low level lapse rates as the storms pass.

Gusted to 46 up at Newburgh.

yep, not much rain actually with that line, but we had a gust 40-45 here when the "line" moved through, relatively impressive.

Weather out east was strange, was sunny and warm riverhead west all day yesterday, but where i was out in montauk the clouds and mist hung around until 4:30...

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yep, not much rain actually with that line, but we had a gust 40-45 here when the "line" moved through, relatively impressive.

Weather out east was strange, was sunny and warm riverhead west all day yesterday, but where i was out in montauk the clouds and mist hung around until 4:30...

Same here in Western Nassau about 10 minutes ago.

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73 to 62 here in Monmouth with strong winds to 33mph and only light/mod rain. Shows how chilly the mid level are. Morning diurnal heating, then the overturning process begins, and the steep lapse rates provide a conducive enviroment for rapid CU explosion and subsequent sctted storms.

Looks to be the same every day this week -- mornings will be nice, then showery by the late afternoon.

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