Sundog Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 my BY temp is up to 98 and i usually run a degree or two colder than ewr Will be interesting to see the report in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Dayton, OH just reported a wind gust to 82 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Newark still at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 LGA: 97 NYC: 93 EWR: 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 108F at Petersburg, Va at 4 and 5pm, looks a bit too high, especially since surrounding locations, i.e. Richmond, hasn't exceeded 104F (102 at 5pm). KPTB 292035Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 42/17 A2972 RMK AO2 KPTB 292015Z AUTO 26005KT 7SM CLR 42/16 A2973 RMK AO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 This heat actually surprised me, but then again I wasn't tracking it the way I did with the last heat wave. Up to 96 in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 433 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 98 SET IN 1959. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 haven't learned your lesson..lol We just had a trough produce a 3 day stretch that registered a -18 total departure. Can you stop posting nonsense. -18 in 3 days is a big cool down for late June. Also, Newark and NYC are on the cusp of registering their 1st negative departure month in over a year. Also very impressive with all this big heat lately. I posted what the euro shows. Which is normal weather Monday-Wednesday. Followed by intense 100+ degree heat for Thursday thru Saturday and then a monster trough that brings below normal weather. I'm not making a forecast. Many people want to know details of the euro and I gave it. So stop posting the same crap over and over. Post in the banter thread. Not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 We just had a trough produce a 3 day stretch that registered a -18 total departure. Can you stop posting nonsense. -18 in 3 days is a big cool down for late June. Also, Newark and NYC are on the cusp of registering their 1st negative departure month in over a year. Also very impressive with all this big heat lately. I posted what the euro shows. Which is normal weather Monday-Wednesday. Followed by intense 100+ degree heat for Thursday thru Saturday and then a monster trough that brings below normal weather. I'm not making a forecast. Many people want to know details of the euro and I gave it. So stop posting the same crap over and over. Post in the banter thread. Not here. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Beautiful night coming up. Nothing like a warm summer night, take a walk to the local bars, grab some ice cream...gotta love summer boys! Enjoy your nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 New GFS still continues a wet week next week and doesn't have the monster heat the euro has either. Interesting to see how the new revised gfs does here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 12z euro ensembles also have a big time trough after a heat ridge starting next weekend. We'll see if it pans out this time. It panned out this week but only lasted 3 days and produced -18 departures. We shall see if this next one is more sustainable. 18z GFS likes the prolonged trough idea also now after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I think the mean trough idea will be more right than wrong for the Northeast. It fits the pattern evolving thus far, with most of the country from the Rockies-OH valley baking, cool in the PAC NW and resistance in the NE. With the Nino beginning to show some legs and continued neg SOI pulsing, I highly doubt we see sustained extreme heat like the Southeast and Plains/Central US. Bursts of 2-3 day heat yes, much like June, but I think most days will be near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 My high was 94 here. I definitely think the wet soils play a role in diminishing the severity of our heat. Given 850s, the potential for 97-98 even here in Monmouth was certainly there. The Moist ground probably knocked a solid 3 degrees off. I think I may be hotter tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 There is a trough signal on the ecm and gfs between jul 9/10th but i suspect it lacks any meaningful cool down south of NNE when its not raining. 18z gfs shows ridging building back in the longer range as well fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 My high was 94 here. I definitely think the wet soils play a role in diminishing the severity of our heat. Given 850s, the potential for 97-98 even here in Monmouth was certainly there. The Moist ground probably knocked a solid 3 degrees off. I think I may be hotter tomorrow. All ensembles and Gfs/Euro break the heat for the southeast as well. Centers the mega heat further west and into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Highs and lows of the day: NYC: 93/68 LGA: 98/72 JFK: 92/71 EWR: 97/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 All ensembles and Gfs/Euro break the heat for the southeast as well. Centers the mega heat further west and into the plains. Also seeing subtle hints the western atlantic ridge build west by mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Highs and lows of the day: NYC: 93/68 LGA: 98/72 JFK: 92/71 EWR: 97/72 Estimated departures: NYC: +5.5 LGA: +9 JFK: +7.5 EWR: +8.5 EWR would be -11.1 for the month going into the last day. NYC would be -22 going into tomorrow. Both EWR and NYC have a good shot at a negative month. NYC is a guaranteed lock. Newark has a greater then 75% chance, if you ask me. All other stations, LGA, JFK, ISP and BDR are done and will finish slightly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 10 day forecast from 10 days ago: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012062000!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 10 day forecast from 10 days ago: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012062000!!/ Ecmwf correctly depicted the trough this week but kept it around for 6 days instead of what happened, which was 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 TEB: 96 NYC: 93 EWR: 97 LDJ: 97 LGA: 98 JFK: 93 ISP: 93 TTN: 96 PHL: 98 ACY: 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 10 day forecast from 10 days ago: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012062000!!/ good post, things change on a dime, there were posts earlier this week that said no heat this weekend, I can dig them up if you wish. A model giveth then taketh away then giveth and taketh away. There is a different solution every day. We had 3 days of trough but if you read this board we were expecting maybe a week of it and this heat certainly was not forecasted long range either. We are not even done with the heatwave yet moving on to the next cooldown, then heatwave, then cooldown. IMHO, its a little too early to jump on model run to runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 TEB: 96 NYC: 93 EWR: 97 LDJ: 97 LGA: 98 JFK: 93 ISP: 93 TTN: 96 PHL: 98 ACY: 94 I'd say this was a decent bust by the NAM, but by the GFS as well, at least for the city. Seems the NAM was more wrong since it had widespread 100's and no one actually cracked 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 good post, things change on a dime, there were posts earlier this week that said no heat this weekend, I can dig them up if you wish. A model giveth then taketh away then giveth and taketh away. There is a different solution every day. We had 3 days of trough but if you read this board we were expecting maybe a week of it and this heat certainly was not forecasted long range either. We are not even done with the heatwave yet moving on to the next cooldown, then heatwave, then cooldown. IMHO, its a little too early to jump on model run to runs Nobody is moving on to anywhere. We are discussing what models and ensembles show. Which is what weather enthusiasts do. Not sure why you get so upset. Enjoy the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 I'd say this was a decent bust by the NAM, but by the GFS as well, at least for the city. Seems the NAM was more wrong since it had widespread 100's and no one actually cracked 100. dewpoints didn't mix out like the nam was showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Nam was too high and the gfs too low. The middle road won today with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 good post, things change on a dime, there were posts earlier this week that said no heat this weekend, I can dig them up if you wish. A model giveth then taketh away then giveth and taketh away. There is a different solution every day. We had 3 days of trough but if you read this board we were expecting maybe a week of it and this heat certainly was not forecasted long range either. We are not even done with the heatwave yet moving on to the next cooldown, then heatwave, then cooldown. IMHO, its a little too early to jump on model run to runs Not sure what you're talking about. Many of us here in this forum discussed the potential for major late June heat as early as 3-4 weeks ago. If anything, we've been focusing on the heat more than the cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 My three 90+ days this month have had the exact same temp, down to the tenth of a degree... 96.1... weird.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 dewpoints didn't mix out like the nam was showing If I remember correctly that was also the case last Weds/Thurs when temps were lower than modeled but dew points were higher. 3rd time this year the NAM had 100 degree heat near NYC and busted too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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