NYCSuburbs Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 11AM: NYC: 81 LGA: 83 JFK: 80 EWR: 87 TEB: 86 The morning clouds likely had an impact on the temperature rise, as the 12z NAM already had NYC/NE NJ in the upper 80s-low 90s by now. Upton also had NYC with 88 degrees. Teterboro and Newark are close to the modeled temperatures but at least in NYC it's a bit cooler than it was supposed to be by now. How fast temperatures rise over the next few hours will indicate whether temperatures reach the modeled highs for today or end up a bit cooler, although with mainly sunny skies and several hours of warming left IMO there shouldn't be much problem getting to the forecasted temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 The morning clouds likely had an impact on the temperature rise, as the 12z NAM already had NYC/NE NJ in the upper 80s-low 90s by now. Upton also had NYC with 88 degrees. Teterboro and Newark are close to the modeled temperatures but at least in NYC it's a bit cooler than it was supposed to be by now. How fast temperatures rise over the next few hours will indicate whether temperatures reach the modeled highs for today or end up a bit cooler, although with mainly sunny skies and several hours of warming left IMO there shouldn't be much problem getting to the forecasted temperatures. I dont think it'll make a difference. Once the sun is fully blazing, LGA and NYC will go off to the races. 850's are way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 They were -.7 after yesterday. After today I'm thinking they are -.3 and tomorrow pushes them to normal or +.1 Newark is so close too. A 100 today would put Newark around a +10 to +11. Leaving Newark with around a -8 cushion for the last day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 +24c 850s around DCA -- wow. 102-104 looks like a lock for them today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Temps starting to respond now to the hazy sunshine. 12pm: NYC: 87 LGA: 88 JFK: 86 EWR: 90 TEB: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 They were -.7 after yesterday. After today I'm thinking they are -.3 and tomorrow pushes them to normal or +.1 They should have an 8-9 degree cushion to play with tomorrow. Tomorrow is a very close call. Day should end +7 to +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Nice rebound today.. Currently 90F from a low of 64F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Newark is currently 3 degrees behind the NAM forecast so it will probably have a tough time hitting 100 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Newark is currently 3 degrees behind the NAM forecast so it will probably have a tough time hitting 100 now. 12pm: NYC: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 88 EWR: 92 TEB: 91 Here is the NAM for right now (1PM); running a little high. But not much: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 12pm: NYC: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 88 EWR: 92 TEB: 91 Here is the NAM for right now (1PM); running a little high. But not much: Newark may get stuck at 98-99 like last week but it is going to be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 upton has 96 for my town this afternoon-BDR is at 85 and I'm at 88 IMBY--hard to see how we get to mid 90's today...you would have thought they'd cut temps by 3-5 degrees after the morning rains...didnt really clear out in earnest until 10 or so here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 All of the ocean buoys are switching to south winds now. The eastern ones are SSW. There might be a sea breeze trying to form and affect south shore areas of NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=11414 still baking in my back yard on the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 94 here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 2PM Temps: NYC: 92 LGA: 94 JFK: 89 EWR: 95 TEB: 94 12z NAM for 2PM (now)...Still running a little high: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 no evidence of negative departures for the next week at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 upton has 96 for my town this afternoon-BDR is at 85 and I'm at 88 IMBY--hard to see how we get to mid 90's today...you would have thought they'd cut temps by 3-5 degrees after the morning rains...didnt really clear out in earnest until 10 or so here OKX will probably bust hard. Can't believe they released a Heat Advisory for lower Fairfield County...head indicies basically right at 90 and only a couple of more hours for potential heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 OKX will probably bust hard. Can't believe they released a Heat Advisory for lower Fairfield County...head indicies basically right at 90 and only a couple of more hours for potential heating. makes so sense-tomorrow may be hotter than today in the end...nowhere near heat advisory criteria here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 no evidence of negative departures for the next week at least what's the Euro have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 97/73 Heat Index of 108 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 what's the Euro have? 12z euro isn't that far out yet. Last night's euro was warm for the extended. 12z GFS had very wet weather from day 5 through the run. We'll see if the euro follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Newark will climb higher on the most 95 degree or higher days for June since 1988. Should tie 1993 tomorrow. 1988...6 1993...5 2012...4 2008...4 1994...4 2011..3 2010..3 1999..3 1991..3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Newark will climb higher on the most 95 degree or higher days for June since 1988. Should tie 1993 tomorrow. 1988...6 1993...5 2012...4 2008...4 1994...4 2011..3 2010..3 1999..3 1991..3 Which is crazy, considering they are flirting with a negative departure month. Just shows how cold and wet the month has been, despite the 5-6 days of extreme warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 one of the HPC mets posted in a thread on the main forum about the new GFS having a wet bias, mainly when it shows widespread light precip. i would keep that in mind when the gfs shows rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 one of the HPC mets posted in a thread on the main forum about the new GFS having a wet bias, mainly when it shows widespread light precip. i would keep that in mind when the gfs shows rain for us there has been discussion on that in this thread, most recently as yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 one of the HPC mets posted in a thread on the main forum about the new GFS having a wet bias, mainly when it shows widespread light precip. i would keep that in mind when the gfs shows rain for us Euro has a little wet period as well from 4th of July night into Friday of next week. Waiting for the rest of the run to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 what's the Euro have? a brief break to slightly above normal around the 4th then another big torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 But I looked at last night's run and it had .11 coming in this morning. And thats exactly what EWR got. I'm not sure any other models showed anything. But overall I think it has trouble with convection, so it spreads it out giving everyone around a tenth or less when in reality some places can see alot more and others will see nothing. one of the HPC mets posted in a thread on the main forum about the new GFS having a wet bias, mainly when it shows widespread light precip. i would keep that in mind when the gfs shows rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Also, euro doesn't look hot next week. Looks like normal to a little above normal but the days with rain (if there is rain), could be a little below normal. Mega heat is waiting in the middle of the country to be unloaded into our area by next weekend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 But I looked at last night's run and it had .11 coming in this morning. And thats exactly what EWR got. I'm not sure any other models showed anything. But overall I think it has trouble with convection, so it spreads it out giving everyone around a tenth or less when in reality some places can see alot more and others will see nothing. one of the HPC mets posted in a thread on the main forum about the new GFS having a wet bias, mainly when it shows widespread light precip. i would keep that in mind when the gfs shows rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.