NYCSuburbs Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 0z NAM not surprisingly is a bit cooler for tomorrow's temperatures. The detailed temperature maps on E-Wall aren't updated yet, but the 95+ degree area is smaller compared to its previous runs. Upper 90s are likely IMO near and SW of NYC (Central Park the seemingly obvious exception based on recent trends), but I doubt it's going to get to 100 tomorrow except for maybe Newark. The NAM also overestimated the heat a bit with the last heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Monmouth is one cool place. And it did the best in the tri-state area in the boxing day blizzard. http://www.delicious...lcome/index.php Yeah it's definitely a very nice part of NJ, IMO. Plus, we are often one of the best spots in larger snow events. Don't want to drag this too much off topic, but here are just a handful of pix from various parts of central/western monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 0z NAM not surprisingly is a bit cooler for tomorrow's temperatures. The detailed temperature maps on E-Wall aren't updated yet, but the 95+ degree area is smaller compared to its previous runs. Upper 90s are likely IMO near and SW of NYC (Central Park the seemingly obvious exception based on recent trends), but I doubt it's going to get to 100 tomorrow except for maybe Newark. The NAM also overestimated the heat a bit with the last heat wave. I don't know, this heat is very impressive to our west over OH/IN. Even Pitt reached 96F today at 1200ft ASL. It wouldn't shock me to see EWR at 101 or 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I don't know, this heat is very impressive to our west over OH/IN. Even Pitt reached 96F today at 1200ft ASL. It wouldn't shock me to see EWR at 101 or 102. It's going to be a close one for a lot of places west and SW of NYC. I don't see Newark having much problem getting up to the 99-100 degree range, maybe a bit higher, but other areas close to NYC IMO should stay a bit below 100. Regardless of exactly how hot it ends up though, a difference of 1-2 degrees doesn't change the fact that it's going to get very hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 0z NAM not surprisingly is a bit cooler for tomorrow's temperatures. The detailed temperature maps on E-Wall aren't updated yet, but the 95+ degree area is smaller compared to its previous runs. That's just noise dude...a forecast model won't be exactly the same every time even 12 or less hours out. It's not like it's a significant cooling trend or it dropped the surface temp a few degrees. Compare these two maps and you'll see what I mean. It's almost exactly the same. The 850 temps might even be warmer than the 18z run. 00z http://www.meteo.psu..._00z/temp20.gif 18z http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/temp26.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 That's just noise dude...a forecast model won't be exactly the same every time even 12 or less hours out. It's not like it's a significant cooling trend or it dropped the surface temp a few degrees. Compare these two maps and you'll see what I mean. It's almost exactly the same. The 850 temps might even be warmer than the 18z run. 00z http://www.meteo.psu..._00z/temp20.gif 18z http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/temp26.gif Looking at these maps the two runs are definitely close, 850mb temps are a bit warmer, although at the time I made the first post the detailed temperature maps weren't out yet. There's no big trend anyways, just a difference of barely 1-3 degrees or so. Going by recent trends though, perhaps it could be a bit warmer than what the NAM shows? A trend I frequently notice with the NAM is that it often initializes with hotter temperatures than what it modeled in prior runs (12z NAM hour 6, 18z NAM hour 0), although I'm not completely sure if it's the previous runs being too low or the initialized temps being too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Once the sun comes out it's going to be off to the races for the temperatures today. The hot spots will soar to around 100 degrees later on as 850's get to around 22-23c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 beyond this weekend, GFS keeps the mean trough in the east with the heat in the center of the country. Temps look close to normal next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 6/28 dailies REB: 91/64 (+3) [-0.6] NYC: 88/68 (+3) [-1.1] EWR: 92/66 (+3) [-0.7] LGA: 91/71 (+5) [+ 0] JFK: 86/68 (+3) [-0.2] ISP: 86/59 (+1 ) [+0] TTN: 90/64 (+3) [-0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 beyond this weekend, GFS keeps the mean trough in the east with the heat in the center of the country. Temps look close to normal next week. euro/ensembles are warmer by 7/4 into the holiday weekend. 06z gfs a bit warer too in that period. We may hover around 90 mon- wed before more stronger heat on/around 7/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 6/28 dailies REB: 91/64 (+3) [-0.6] NYC: 88/68 (+3) [-1.1] EWR: 92/66 (+3) [-0.7] LGA: 91/71 (+5) [+ 0] JFK: 86/68 (+3) [-0.2] ISP: 86/59 (+1 ) [+0] TTN: 90/64 (+3) [-0.5 Today's rain almost seals it for NYC. It dropped the lows to at least 69. Instead of the forecast for mid 70's. Even a 95-97 high today is is only a +8 to +9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Today's rain almost seals it for NYC. It dropped the lows to at least 69. Instead of the forecast for mid 70's. Even a 95-97 high today is is only a +8 to +9. Streak is over.....woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Streak is over.....woot Newark is so close too. A 100 today would put Newark around a +10 to +11. Leaving Newark with around a -8 cushion for the last day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 This heat really surprised the long range models. Notice how the ridges all verified further east from the Central Pacific right across the US. The expansive east to west ridge is lining up right on top of the major US drought pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Definitely Bluewave....which makes one wonder if that's going to be the case for July too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Today's rain almost seals it for NYC. It dropped the lows to at least 69. Instead of the forecast for mid 70's. Even a 95-97 high today is is only a +8 to +9. Climate report is out. NYC got down to 68 under the thunderstorm. Forecast low was 75. Newark got down to 72. Missed the heaviest part of the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Euro shows some very hot weather again after the 4th of July. Another shot of 100 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 This heat really surprised the long range models. Notice how the ridges all verified further east from the Central Pacific right across the US. The expansive east to west ridge is lining up right on top of an expansive US drought pattern. Amazing how bad the drought is becoming for most of the country while we have been enjoying above normal precip for the past couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Amazing how bad the drought is becoming for most of the country while we have been enjoying above normal precip for the past couple of months. Really have not had a break in the growth of the grass...this time last year lawns were burning out....we were drier in april...oh btw stayed at the cornado springs in disney...wonderful time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Really have not had a break in the growth of the grass...this time last year lawns were burning out....we were drier in april...oh btw stayed at the cornado springs in disney...wonderful time! Disney is great, I was down for a wedding at the Grand Floridian...great time. I hear good things about the Cornado also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Streak is over.....woot But it's kind of like winning a race against someone who slips on a banana peel right before the finish line. Not very exciting and you know the other guy should have probably won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 But it's kind of like winning a race against someone who slips on a banana peel right before the finish line. Not very exciting and you know the other guy should have probably won. Not sure I get that same feeling. We were solidly normal to below normal most of the month of June. If not for a few (3 or 4 at most) days of very extreme heat here and there (record breaking in certain instances and obviously ridiculously above normal), all reporting stations would have been noticeably below normal. Monthly temperatures for Newark: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 But it's kind of like winning a race against someone who slips on a banana peel right before the finish line. Not very exciting and you know the other guy should have probably won. Newark is right there also. Should be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Newark is right there also. Should be close. Even a few tenths off even on the month will be really impressive as I think EWR was running around -2.5 before the heat arrived last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 wet month as far as having measurable rain on a given day-18 days so far with at least a T or rain or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 SW winds, sun coming out now....off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 DCA jumped from 85 to 96 in one hour. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Clouds are about to clear off the coast and we will all be roasting in full sunshine soon. 10am temps: NYC: 76 LGA: 80 JFK: 77 EWR: 80 TEB: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 wet month as far as having measurable rain on a given day-18 days so far with at least a T or rain or more... pretty annoying if you ask me. Let it rain in the spring, fall and winter when nobody has outdoor plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 11AM: NYC: 81 LGA: 83 JFK: 80 EWR: 87 TEB: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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