Weathergun Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The NAM is also trending a bit hotter for what it's worth; latest 0z run is back to showing widespread 100 degree heat along I-95 up to NYC on Friday with mid 90s on Saturday. Maybe not 100 degrees, but upper 90s are possible especially further west/SW. And it wouldn't surprise me if Central Park still somehow ends up cooler than the rest of NYC as it has been since the last heat wave. The 0z NAM is this hot, because it has west winds and 850mb temps 23-24C, Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think one of NYC-PHL-DC will be nailed this next week by a derecho... the setup for severe weather looks extremely prime, and the big cities are well-situated to cash in on the action, finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I do not think NYC will see a severe storm for the next seven days at least according to this snippet from Upton's discussion: INSTABILITY IS PRESENT BUT IS MAINLY ELEVATED (ABOVE 700MB). MODELS SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO INDICATING A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AND A CAP AROUND H8. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS...LET ALONE SEVERE WX IS DECREASING In fact, I think that NYC will fall back into a drought once again, as the day-to-day rainfall defecits keep on accumulating on top of one another. We are almost 7 inches below normal so far this year. There is almost no rainfall being predicted for the next seven days as well, so this will certainly get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Upton's climate report for NYC has an error for yesterday. Shows 81/72 for the day and a +3. Supposed to be 81/62 for a -2.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Upton's climate report for NYC has an error for yesterday. Shows 81/72 for the day and a +3. Supposed to be 81/62 for a -2.5. You should report it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 You should report it. It was corrected. NYC now has a -32.4 total monthly departure. Will still be very close. Going off the forecasted highs and lows for the last 3 days of June: Today: 90/68 = +5.5 Friday: 97/74 = +12 Saturday: 94/77 = +12 Total: +29.5 Would only leave NYC with a total monthly departure of -2.9 or -.1 for the month. So it can still go either way. Only wildcard is strength of storms tomorrow morning. If a heavy enough downpour hits Central Park, the temp can drop quickly into the mid 60's, which would only make tomorrow a + 6 to +8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 manhattan will hit the low 90s today and the park will probably top out at 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 manhattan will hit the low 90s today and the park will probably top out at 88 Which means the potential negative monthly departure is BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 manhattan will hit the low 90s today and the park will probably top out at 88 Possibly. But again, so what? Central Park is Central park. Monthly departures are compared at the same station. So if June, 2012 ends up slightly below at Central park, then it's slightly below. We aren't comparing Central Park to LGA. A flawed station today was flawed in 1998 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Which means the potential negative monthly departure is BS. No it doesnt. Please think about what you are saying for a second. The Central Park station is the Central Park station. Temps in 1998, 2001 or 2012 have always been skewed low from the tree cover in the park. No difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Possibly. But again, so what? Central Park is Central park. Monthly departures are compared at the same station. So if June, 2012 ends up slightly below at Central park, then it's slightly below. We aren't comparing Central Park to LGA. A flawed station today was flawed in 1998 also. it's gotten much worse over the past decade. there used to be occasions where knyc would have a warmer high than kewr, but that almost never happens anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 No it doesnt. Pelase think about what you are saying for a second. The Central Park station is the Central Park station. Temps in 1998, 2001 or 2012 have always been skewed low from the tree cover in the park. No difference. trees grow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Newark will climb higher on the most 95 degree or higher days for June since 1988. 1988...6 1993...5 2008...4 1994...4 2012...3 2011..3 2010..3 1999..3 1991..3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 it's gotten much worse over the past decade. there used to be occasions where knyc would have a warmer high than kewr, but that almost never happens anymore Incorrect... Look at the average temps at each station...Central Park is skewed. For instance for yesterday: Average temps for 6/27 (since 1982): EWR: 76 LGA: 74.5 NYC: 73.5 The NYC average temps is lower then EVERY station. 2.5 degree difference with Newark. NYC's stats reflect the cold bias. Its not as if KNYC has the same average temp as EWR or LGA and the daily anomalies are going off that. The daily anomalies are going off KNYC skewed daily averages from a 30 year average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Newark will climb higher on the most 95 degree or higher days for June since 1988. 1988...6 1993...5 2008...4 1994...4 2012...3 2011..3 2010..3 1999..3 1991..3 7/8 of those summers were hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 trees grow Please show me monthly average temps that prove that Central Park is skewed since 1982. Do it in 10 yr. increments. Show me: June 1982 to June 1992 June 1992 to June 2002 June 2002 to June 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Incorrect... Look at the average temps at each station...Central Park is skewed. For instance for yesterday: Average temps for 6/27 (since 1982): EWR: 76 LGA: 74.5 NYC: 73.5 The NYC average temps is lower then EVERY station. 2.5 degree difference with Newark. NYC's stats reflect the cold bias. Its not as if KNYC has the same average temp as EWR or LGA and the daily anomalies are going off that. The daily anomalies are going off KNYC skewed daily averages from a 30 year average. 2002 vs 2009 looks a good deal worse if you ask me (in terms of vegetation).. http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Average monthly June temps for Central Park since 1982 (30 years): 1982 - 1991: 72.63 1992 - 2001: 72.01 2002 - 2011: 71.98 Central Park is Central Park and this proves it. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthannualtemp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 2002 vs 2009 looks a good deal worse if you ask me (in terms of vegetation).. http://www.weather20...S/NYC_ASOS.html Average monthly June temps for Central Park since 1982 (30 years): 1982 - 1991: 72.63 1992 - 2001: 72.01 2002 - 2011: 71.98 Central Park is Central Park and this proves it. http://www.erh.noaa....annualtemp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Average monthly June temps for Central Park since 1982 (30 years): 1982 - 1991: 72.63 1992 - 2001: 72.01 2002 - 2011: 71.98 Central Park is Central Park and this proves it. http://www.erh.noaa....annualtemp.html you proved my point. each decade saw a drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 you proved my point. each decade saw a drop Average yearly temps at Central Park station since 1982: 1982-1991: 55.55 1992-2001: 55.09 2002-2011: 55.43 The station is the exact same as it was in 1982. It's always been skewed to the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Average July temp in Central Park since 1982: 1982 - 1991: 77.11 1992 - 2001: 76.56 2002 - 2011: 77.20 Again, the station is the same skewed to the low and hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Average July temp in Central Park since 1982: 1982 - 1991: 77.11 1992 - 2001: 76.56 2002 - 2011: 77.20 Again, the station is the same skewed to the low and hasn't changed. how does it look if you go back 50 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 how does it look if you go back 50 years? and how does dx/dt for nyc compare to dx/dt for ewr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 how does it look if you go back 50 years? This isn't an issue of 50 years. This is the 30 year period that we use today. Ill post the 2 10 year period before as well though for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 and how does dx/dt for nyc compare to dx/dt for ewr? Find me a site that has EWR's average monthly temps since 1982 and I will do the math. But the most accurate and fair to compare would be LGA. Where can I find LGA's info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 shouldn't there be a thread on the NYC/KEWR/JFK thing? Its a climo discussion, not an obs current weather discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 shouldn't there be a thread on the NYC/KEWR/JFK thing? Its a climo discussion, not an obs current weather discussion. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 NAM continues to be less and less impressive with whatever comes over the top of the ridge tonight. 557am tee time looks to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 For Forky: Average June and July temp at Central Park station since 1962 by decade: June: 1962-1971: 72.1 1972-1981: 70.8 1982-1991: 72.03 1992-2001: 72.01 2002-2011: 71.98 July: 1962-1971: 76.1 1972-1981: 77.1 1982-1991: 77.11 1992-2001: 76.56 2002-2011: 77.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.