ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 12z euro not friendly for heat lovers...Wet and below normal 850's for all of next week and beyond. But it's been waffling back and forth with the trough placement, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hope the Euro changes for the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Euro ensembles could not get worse for heat lovers....It continues through day 10 and by then all the heat is gone from the whole east coast Day 5: Day 6: Day 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 12z euro not friendly for heat lovers...Wet and below normal 850's for all of next week and beyond. But it's been waffling back and forth with the trough placement, so who knows. here's the day 8 forecast valid tomorrow evening from 00z last friday http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012062100!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Never said euro or euro ensembles were right. GEFS could be right or wrong as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I guess the question is whether the Euro is over-doing the trough...it clearly over did it this week-it was in and out vs a 5 day stay.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 20Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The color scale is different between the Euro OP to the ensemble mean for some reason. OP ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Ouch! And please do not get me wrong, I'm not advocating for a repeat of July, 1936. WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR KANSAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 500 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2012 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. KSZ001>006-013>018-027>032-041>047-272300- NORTHWEST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS GOODLAND MOSUNNY 109 23 5 SW15G21 29.81F HX 100 HAYS SUNNY 113 45 10 SW26G32 29.76S HX 108 HILL CITY SUNNY 115 37 7 S24G36 29.71S HX 107 RUSSELL SUNNY 113 44 10 S24G40 29.74F HX 108 $$ KSZ061>065-074>080-084>089-272300- SOUTHWEST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS DODGE CITY SUNNY 110 35 7 S21G33 29.82F HX 103 ELKHART N/A 106 42 11 S18 N/A HX 101 GARDEN CITY SUNNY 108 38 9 S20G30 29.84S HX 102 GREAT BEND SUNNY 111 50 13 S30G39 29.76F HX 108 LIBERAL SUNNY 109 43 10 S18G28 29.88S HX 104 PRATT SUNNY 108 45 12 S22G30 29.83F HX 103 $$ KSZ066>073-081>083-090>101-272300- SOUTHEAST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CHANUTE SUNNY 96 71 44 S15 29.88F HX 103 COFFEYVILLE SUNNY 99 68 36 S17 29.88S HX 104 HUTCHINSON SUNNY 106 62 23 S20G29 29.82F HX 108 MEDICINE LODGE N/A 109 54 16 S17G28 29.81F HX 107 NEWTON SUNNY 106 66 27 S21G26 29.85S HX 111 PARSONS SUNNY 97 70 41 S8G20 29.90F HX 103 WICHITA INTL SUNNY 106 64 25 S16G28 29.83F HX 109 WICHITA JABRA SUNNY 102 67 31 S16G24 29.84S HX 107 WICHITA MCCONL SUNNY 104 66 29 S17G25 29.85S HX 108 WINFIELD SUNNY 103 69 33 S20G25 29.86F HX 110 $$ KSZ007>012-019>026-033>040-048>060-102>105-272300- NORTHEAST KANSAS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CONCORDIA SUNNY 106 57 20 S22G31 29.73S HX 105 EMPORIA SUNNY 104 68 31 S17G28 29.83F HX 110 LAWRENCE SUNNY 103 69 33 S9 29.81F HX 110 MANHATTAN SUNNY 105 68 30 S12G23 29.75F HX 112 OLATHE IND SUNNY 99 69 37 S16G24 29.85S HX 105 OLATHE EXE SUNNY 98 68 37 S12G22 29.85S HX 103 SALINA SUNNY 109 62 21 S24G35 29.75F HX 112 TOPEKA BILLARD SUNNY 103 72 36 S16G22 29.79F HX 113 TOPEKA FORBES SUNNY 104 70 33 S16G23 29.80F HX 112 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 So what were the highs today and what model was closest to reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 So what were the highs today and what model was closest to reality? NYC was 81 with a forecast for 85. GFS had a high of 79-80. NAM had a high of 85-86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 NYC was 81 with a forecast for 85. GFS had a high of 79-80. NAM had a high if 85-86. Hopefully it's also right for the next few days as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 LGA reached 84 degrees. So NAM was closest. Newark reached 86 degrees. NAM had 86 as their high. JFK reached 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Hopefully it's also right for the next few days as well. NAM nailed today besides NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Looks like NYC will record a -2.5 departure today. Leaving them with a total of a -31.1 monthly departure. With 3 days of heat coming, it will be a very close call for monthly departure of negative or positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Newark looks like a -1 today. So a total of -21.8 heading into the last 3 days of June. There is an outside slim chance at this station also. LGA, JFK, ISP and BDR have no chance at a negative month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 NAM nailed today besides NYC. Lol why did you only mention NYC then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Lol why did you only mention NYC then? Look after that post. You didn't give me a chance to give all the stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 This month will finish above normal and should be considered that way. Some dark corner of a large damp park is not the best place to gauge the true nature of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 How ironic that the infamous coldest and warmest stations, NYC and EWR, are the only 2 stations left with a chance at a negative departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Look after that post. You didn't give me a chance to give all the stations. Did the Euro also have coolish temps for today that busted low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 This month will finish above normal and should be considered that way. Some dark corner of a large damp park is not the best place to gauge the true nature of June. The majority of the month was normal to below normal and it was a wet month. 6-7 warm to hot days are pushing the stations above normal. You ask anyone in the public and they will tell you it's been a cold summer so far. They don't know anomalies. Also, Newark has a chance of a negative month. Slim, but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 How ironic that the infamous coldest and warmest stations, NYC and EWR, are the only 2 stations left with a chance at a negative departure. Newark will finish above normal. The park is the only one that has a chance since it's temperature recording is similar to what you would find in the Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Did the Euro also have coolish temps for today that busted low? Euro had 79-82. So yeah, busted low for everyone but KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Euro had 79-82. So yeah, busted low for everyone but KNYC. Which means it was wrong. Being right for KNYC means nothing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Newark will finish above normal. The park is the only one that has a chance since it's temperature recording is similar to what you would find in the Adirondacks. It's not as certain as you think. Going off a high of 92, 98 and 97 with forecasted lows of 72-73. Newark ends the month at a +.2 That can easily be wiped out by a 10 degree bust on the low for Friday under a strong tstorm or a 3-4 degree bust on high temps on 2 of the days. It's not as certain as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Which means it was wrong. Being right for KNYC means nothing to me. Central Park has always been skewed. So if June ends up below normal, it's correct for that station. It's not as if we are comparing 2 different sites. Not sure why people get upset over this so much. If Central Park was too low 10 years ago, its too low now also. No difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 18z GFS looks hotter than its 12z run for Thurs-Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The majority of the month was normal to below normal and it was a wet month. 6-7 warm to hot days are pushing the stations above normal. You ask anyone in the public and they will tell you it's been a cold summer so far. They don't know anomalies. Also, Newark has a chance of a negative month. Slim, but possible. I hardly think that the public would call this summer cold..you have to be kidding me. We just came off of heat last week, I think people would think overall things have been very pleasant not to bad and probably say about normal but hardly cold especially since we have had plenty of sun of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 18z GFS looks hotter than its 12z run for Thurs-Sat. The NAM is also trending a bit hotter for what it's worth; latest 0z run is back to showing widespread 100 degree heat along I-95 up to NYC on Friday with mid 90s on Saturday. Maybe not 100 degrees, but upper 90s are possible especially further west/SW. And it wouldn't surprise me if Central Park still somehow ends up cooler than the rest of NYC as it has been since the last heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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