uncle W Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Not sure what the forecast is, but it will be close for the park. Heat dome just to our southwest is breaking some all time records, it will push north in pulses and at best storms will bring us down to avg before the next spike comes north. The park will represent the cooler areas of NYC not the majority. it won't happen in the Park...the -28 negative is to much to overcome...we are adding to it today...the last three days must average +10...That's at least a min/max of 92/77 each day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 NAM is now also picking up on the tight gradient between the southerly winds and the westerly winds, that the euro has had for many runs for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 NAM is now also picking up on the tight gradient between the southerly winds and the westerly winds, that the euro has had for many runs for Friday. Also, you can now see it picking up on the tight temperature gradient as well for coastal sections: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Parts of ks with 10AM temps at over 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 At my station I will have a monthly mean of about 69.3 after today. My normal June mean is 70.6... so its going to be very close here also as far as above or below. My normals are also based on my 30 years worth of records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 The difference with the 12z NAM and the 0z euro is that the euro has this coastal front a bit west of the NAM and keeps NYC east in the upper 80's and low 90's, instead of 95-99, like the NAM...Euro has been advertising this tight gradient for days now. NAM just picked up on it on today's run. 0z euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 it's a lee trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 it's a lee trof what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 a pressure trof that forms when winds blow orthogonal to a mountain range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 a pressure trof that forms when winds blow orthogonal to a mountain range should help to strength the onshore flow to its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 12z GFS still stubborn for Friday... MAX temps through Friday 8pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 GFS has highs of 83-85 for tomorrow 89-91 for Friday 86-88 for Saturday This is for NYC and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Today is a good test. 12z NAM has a high of 84-85 for NYC (what Upton is using) 12z GFS has a high of 78-80 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I expect low 90s for NYC from Friday till Monday. Mid to upper 80s for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Today is a good test. 12z NAM has a high of 84-85 for NYC (what Upton is using) 12z GFS has a high of 78-80 for NYC mid 80s look good for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 mid 80s look good for today Not sure. LGA and NYC are at 78 at 1PM with a wind shift to the NNW and gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Not sure. LGA and NYC are at 78 at 1PM with a wind shift to the NNW and gusty. agree-maybe 82 tops--maybe the GFS is on to something...euro run will be interesting in an hour or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Friday's highs look tricky across the area. Besides the lee trough/onshore flow, there is also a weak cold front coming from the NW, that could turn flow back to W/NW. Also several triggers for convection during the day. Including a big shortwave passing through early in day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 agree-maybe 82 tops--maybe the GFS is on to something...euro run will be interesting in an hour or so... LGA usually has a late day high. Around 5pm. So I think they have a chance at 83-85 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Looks like we will get a taste of the heat...still not sold on 100 for us.....doubt that happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 1PM temps: NYC: 78 LGA: 78 JFK: 79 EWR: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 2PM: NYC: 78 (upton forecast high of 85 from NAM) LGA: 79 (upton forecast high of 85 from NAM) JFK: 81 EWR: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 this looks like the warmest euro run yet for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 12z euro for Thursday: NYC east and north: 84-88 Staten Island south (away from Jersey coast): 88-92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 this looks like the warmest euro run yet for friday Yup. Winds are WSW into mid LI now at 12z Friday. Waiting for surface temp map (wunderground) and text soundings (accuwx) to update for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Yup. Winds are WSW into mid LI now at 12z Friday. Waiting for surface temp map (wunderground) and text soundings (accuwx) to update for Friday. Winds turn back South and eventually SE for LI and coastal areas but this is definitely still the warmest euro run yet. Here are specific locations because there are tight gradients: NYC: 91-93 JFK: 82-85 Suffolk County: 80-85 EWR and most of Jersey: 95-98 Coastal NJ: 80-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 wow-what a gradient-could be 15 degrees b/w certain spots...how about SW CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 wow-what a gradient-could be 15 degrees b/w certain spots...how about SW CT? Same as NYC except the extreme tip of coastal SWCT is similar to Suffolk County temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Let's hope the euro/ggem is wrong for the 4th of July. Has a rainy and dreary day with a weak low pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 days 10+ are hot on the gfes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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