SnoSki14 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Well I guess it's time to make friends with the A/C because there's no way I can enjoy being outside in 100F+ weather, no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 0z euro however modified the next trough. It's more east allowing for heat to stick around and come back in the day 7-10 frame. GFS still maintains the big trough and keeps the northeast normal to below normal in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 6z NAM also has the timing of the storms now for Friday morning. Hold up storms in the morning then 100 in the afternoon? Has that ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 0z euro however modified the next trough. It's more east allowing for heat to stick around and come back in the day 7-10 frame. GFS still maintains the big trough and keeps the northeast normal to below normal in the long range. I"m betting on the heat to stay around, could be another record hot July if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 upton has 90 or better Thursday-Monday with Fri at 96 in NYC Their point forecast for NYC is 89 for Thursday, 94 for Friday and 91 for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Hold up storms in the morning then 100 in the afternoon? Has that ever happened? With 22c 850's it doesn't matter if the winds shift to the west. Storms on NAM are 6z to 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Their point forecast for NYC is 89 for Thursday, 94 for Friday and 91 for Saturday. i used the zone forecast--funny how it;s a couple of degrees difference for the same locale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Their point forecast for NYC is 89 for Thursday, 94 for Friday and 91 for Saturday. depends where you click on manhattan, some areas 94 while the upper east side is 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 That thermometer seating in Central Park must be taking its toll as NYC is running cooler than the other stations. EWR, JFK, and LGA should finish June with above normal temperatures . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Just back from southern california for quick trip. Left right after storms on monday, was ver surprised to get out. Weather there was similar to what we have had here many times this spring/summer. Anyway back to the regional weather. Gorgeous morning here in c-nj. Looks like we start our climb back to normal and then some heat this weekend. Funny business with front and clouds to work around but still looks hot and overall warm into next week including the 4th. May have had out coolest readings till later in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 That thermometer seating in Central Park must be taking its toll as NYC is running cooler than the other stations. EWR, JFK, and LGA should finish June with above normal temperatures . Speaking of which thru the 26th. TEB: -0.4 NYC: -1.1 EWR: -0.8 LGA: -0.2 JFK: -0.3 ISP: 0.0 TTN: -0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Today should be a -1 to -2 if the forecast high is not surpassed with a low of 62 this morning. That would leave NYC with a -30.1 total monthly departure with the 3 day heat wave left. EWR would be left with a -22.3 Even for NYC, it will be tough to hold on to that -30.1, if the temps for the last 3 days are 90, 95 and 92. That would put NYC at or above +30 for the last 3 days. Only thing that can save NYC is if very heavy Thunderstorms impact the area on Friday. That can drop the temps to the 60's and even a 95 degree high would only be a +7 to +8 departure. If the timing of the NAM's early morning Tstorms is correct, that would be NYC's saving grace for Friday's departures as a heavy downpour can easily drop the temps into the low 60's in the early morning. LGA, JFK, ISP and BDR are a lock to be slightly above normal for June. EWR has a very slight chance of staying below normal, but most likely they will be slightly above normal. Again, only heavy thunderstorms to drop the low temps into the low 60's would keep EWR below normal. NYC is the only station that has a 50/50 shot at finishing below normal and only by a fraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 why does everyone care so much about the month finishing above or below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 That thermometer seating in Central Park must be taking its toll as NYC is running cooler than the other stations. EWR, JFK, and LGA should finish June with above normal temperatures . EWR and NYC are only separated by 7.8 total monthly departure degrees. That's fairly close. Kind of surprising that the hottest and coldest stations are running the closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 why does everyone care so much about the month finishing above or below normal? Why not? We have had a streak of 14 straight months of positive departures. Some are looking to keep that streak going and others are looking for it to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 why does everyone care so much about the month finishing above or below normal? Don't know about others but here are my reasons: 14 consecutive month streak on the line here for NYC -- if this month finishes < 0, that streak is over. Personally I'd like to see NYC end up above normal. All the other NYC stations will be warm, and plus, I went slightly above normal for June, so I'd also like my forecast to verify. If NYC finishes cool, they'll certainly stick out like a sore thumb w/ everyone else on the mild side. Hopefully drive home the point that that station is completely unrepresentative of the majority of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Don't know about others but here are my reasons: 14 consecutive month streak on the line here for NYC -- if this month finishes < 0, that streak is over. Personally I'd like to see NYC end up above normal. All the other NYC stations will be warm, and plus, I went slightly above normal for June, so I'd also like my forecast to verify. If NYC finishes cool, they'll certainly stick out like a sore thumb w/ everyone else on the mild side. Hopefully drive home the point that that station is completely unrepresentative of the majority of the metro area. EWR likely finishes +.2 to +.6 NYC likely finishes -.3 to +.3 That is not sticking out like a sore thumb. That's fairly close. Similar to August of 2011: NYC finished +.1 LGA -.3 EWR: +1.1 LGA is not sticking out like a sore thumb there. If anything, Newark sticks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 One interesting thing is the overnight lows. This morning EWR was 62 so even if they hit 86 today its going to be -2. Tomorrow may end up +8 on the high but normal or even a degree or two below on the low side so it will only be a +4. Friday may end up at least +12 on the high but +4-+6 on the low. Now granted these are the forecast lows, EWR often stays a few degrees higher than expected so we shall see. I think the reason for being interested in this is that by most accounts June was a cool month. At least half the days were below normal and we will end up having 6 90 degree+ days. Yet even with that to still squeak above normal for the month is rather impressive. EWR likely finishes +.2 to +.9 NYC likely finishes -.3 to +.3 That is not sticking out like a sore thumb. That's fairly close. Similar to August of 2011: NYC finished +.1 LGA -.3 EWR: +1.1 LGA is not sticking out like a sore thumb there. If anything, Newark sticks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 One interesting thing is the overnight lows. This morning EWR was 62 so even if they hit 86 today its going to be -2. Tomorrow may end up +8 on the high but normal or even a degree or two below on the low side so it will only be a +4. Friday may end up at least +12 on the high but +4-+6 on the low. Now granted these are the forecast lows, EWR often stays a few degrees higher than expected so we shall see. I think the reason for being interested in this is that by most accounts June was a cool month. At least half the days were below normal and we will end up having 6 90 degree+ days. Yet even with that to still squeak above normal for the month is rather impressive. Yeah. The potential for heavy tstorms on Friday are the big player here. If the timing is early Friday morning, like the NAM has, a heavy downpour can easily drop the temps into the low 60's, even upper 50's. So even a high of 95-98 is only a +6 to +8 departure instead of a +12 to +14 departure. Will be so close for NYC and even EWR...Depends on the low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Joe B last night: "NYC is 1 below normal for month and was 10 below normal today. The "hot shot" there did not erase 5 days of cool before, neither will this" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 EWR likely finishes +.2 to +.6 NYC likely finishes -.3 to +.3 That is not sticking out like a sore thumb. That's fairly close. Similar to August of 2011: NYC finished +.1 LGA -.3 EWR: +1.1 LGA is not sticking out like a sore thumb there. If anything, Newark sticks out. I can understand the argument in defense of Central Park, but I still feel that most towns in NE NJ and Manhattan experience high temps closer to that of EWR than NYC. EWR may be the hot spot, but I think most are closer to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Joe B last night: "NYC is 1 below normal for month and was 10 below normal today. The "hot shot" there did not erase 5 days of cool before, neither will this" I detailed how the next 3 days can easily erase the -30 total departure for the month. 3 days is a row of 90+ degree with lows in the 70's will put NYC slightly ABOVE normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 I can understand the argument in defense of Central Park, but I still feel that most towns in NE NJ and Manhattan experience high temps closer to that of EWR than NYC. EWR may be the hot spot, but I think most are closer to that. Agree. But NYC and EWR are running very similar this June, in terms of departures. Its not like NYC is -4 and everyone else is +2. They are very close. All the NYC stations, EWR, NYC, LGA and JFK are fairly similar to eachother, in terms of departures. No one is much hotter or much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Agree. But NYC and EWR are running very similar this June, in terms of departures. Its not like NYC is -4 and everyone else is +2. They are very close. All the NYC stations, EWR, NYC, LGA and JFK are fairly similar to eachother, in terms of departures. No one is much hotter or much colder. I mean just look at the 3 stations that are located within miles of eachother: Average monthly temp through June 26: NYC: 77.5 LGA: 78.4 JFK: 77.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I can understand the argument in defense of Central Park, but I still feel that most towns in NE NJ and Manhattan experience high temps closer to that of EWR than NYC. EWR may be the hot spot, but I think most are closer to that. That's true in this part of NE NJ as well - there's lots of forests and trees here, more than places further SW towards Teterboro and Newark, but temperatures still usually end up warmer than Central Park during the bigger warm spells, not quite as warm as Newark but often closer to Newark than Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Same debate is raging in the NE thread-any below normals will end the streak of 16 months above (I think)....Boston looks to be below-it will be close for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Yeah. The potential for heavy tstorms on Friday are the big player here. If the timing is early Friday morning, like the NAM has, a heavy downpour can easily drop the temps into the low 60's, even upper 50's. So even a high of 95-98 is only a +6 to +8 departure instead of a +12 to +14 departure. Will be so close for NYC and even EWR...Depends on the low temps. There is no potential for "heavy thunderstorms"...maybe a few showers or thundershowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Another stunning day shaping up here. Fully sunny and temps in the mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Joe B last night: "NYC is 1 below normal for month and was 10 below normal today. The "hot shot" there did not erase 5 days of cool before, neither will this" Not sure what the forecast is, but it will be close for the park. Heat dome just to our southwest is breaking some all time records, it will push north in pulses and at best storms will bring us down to avg before the next spike comes north. The park will represent the cooler areas of NYC not the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 looks like saturday dries out a bit with low/mid 90s then another blast of high heat/humidity sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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