forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 euro looks cooler to me than the 00Z run. Still don't see over 90 degree heat. i'm willing to put money down that knyc reaches 90 saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 i'm willing to put money down that knyc reaches 90 saturday No one said it isn't. But the euro does not. And the GFS is very similar to the euro with surface temps for Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 i'm willing to put money down that knyc reaches 90 saturday you said the euro looks hot. Just for Saturday? I agree, Saturday looks warm. Otherwise, the big heat stays to the south and west on this run, AG3's text output confirms. Whether its right or now, who knows, but gfs supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The euro hasn't been that great of late correct? Might lean towards the Americans on this one....either way-should get a nice ring of fire storm setup somewhere out of this (more likely N and E of the city) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 you said the euro looks hot. Just for Saturday? I agree, Saturday looks warm. Otherwise, the big heat stays to the south and west on this run, AG3's text output confirms. Whether its right or now, who knows, but gfs supports it. the gfs does not support the euro on friday. winds are almost due west for all of us. see the lee trof running from sne to the carolinas? the euro shows that feature hanging west of us and i think it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 the gfs does not support the euro on friday. winds are almost due west for all of us. see the lee trof running from sne to the carolinas? the euro shows that feature hanging west of us and i think it's wrong It supports it for surface temps. Look at raw text outputs and also surface temp maps. GFS has almost identical high temps to the 12z euro for Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z GFS...Warmer then the euro, but much cooler then the NAM. Euro however is 95 degrees for Saturday: Thursday: 82 Friday: 89-91 Saturday: 87 Sunday: 89-91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 It supports it at the surface. Look at raw text outputs and also surface temp maps. GFS has almost IDENTICAL high temps to the 12z euro for Thursday and Friday. gfs bufkit shows a sfc temp of 33C at 18z friday for lga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 It supports it for surface temps. Look at raw text outputs and also surface temp maps. GFS has almost identical high temps to the 12z euro for Thursday and Friday. LOL, exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 gfs bufkit shows a sfc temp of 33C at 18z friday for lga 12z GFS...Warmer then the euro, but much cooler then the NAM. Euro however is 95 degrees for Saturday: Thursday: 82 Friday: 89-91 Saturday: 87 Sunday: 89-91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z models for Thursday and Friday: Thursday: NAM: 93 GFS: 82 Euro: 85 Friday: NAM: 101 GFS: 91 Euro: 88-91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The euro hasn't been that great of late correct? Might lean towards the Americans on this one....either way-should get a nice ring of fire storm setup somewhere out of this (more likely N and E of the city) Temps were 2-3 degrees too warm at this time with the latest heat episode, they cooled prior to the event With the flow around the heat ridge, we could be dealing with a lot of convective debris, convection itself, and the affects of Debbie. Too many variable to lock in epic heat. 89-91, sure, but 97-100+, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Temps were 2-3 degrees too warm at this time with the latest heat episode, they cooled prior to the event With the flow around the heat ridge, we could be dealing with a lot of convective debris, convection itself, and the affects of Debbie. Too many variable to lock in epic heat. 89-91, sure, but 97-100+, no. I think the 95+ degree heat overspreads our area at one point for a day or 2. Could be Friday or could be Saturday, like the euro. But it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 upton is hot in the city for Fri and Sat....not bad out this way--mid 80's from Thursday-Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 upton is hot in the city for Fri and Sat....not bad out this way--mid 80's from Thursday-Monday They have a high of 93 for Friday. They are taking the GFS/Euro blend. NAM has 101 degrees for Friday. They are also not using the NAM for Thursday. NAM has low to mid 90's for Thursday and Upton is forecasting a high of 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Upton's latest discussion says they are siding with the cooler GFS but they might need to bump up their forecast. And they are also confused with regards to the front placement (bolded part)...Tough, tough forecast for Upton to make: A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MORE MUGGY IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWING 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TO 19-20C...AND THE ECMWF 21-22C. CONSIDERING BOTH MODELS SHOW A FLAT FLOW ALOFT...WILL SIDE WITH COOLER GFS IDEA...BUT THIS STILL PUTS INLAND SPOTS WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND SEA BREEZE UNCERTAINTY...WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER US UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT ONLY AT CHANCE POPS. MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE DRY HOWEVER. WITH THE FRONT BEING STALLED OVER THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOMES PROBLEMATIC AS WIND DIRECTION BECOMES TRICKY AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. NORTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS ALOFT DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DROP OFF. SO IN ANY CASE...AREAS AWAY FROM ANY SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE SHOULD END UP IN THE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 the euro ensemble mean looks like westerly flow to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 18z NAM bumped back a little with highs on Friday. Now 97. 6z and 12z both showed 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 the sref got warmer. the nam has some seabreeze influence east of nyc... but that's been my thinking all along. this always looked like an event with sw/ssw winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 18z NAM bumped back a little with highs on Friday. Now 97. 6z and 12z both showed 101. It still has 100+ over New Jersey including as far north as Newark/Northeast NJ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_18z/f75.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 It still has 100+ over New Jersey including as far north as Newark/Northeast NJ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_18z/f75.gif Talking for NYC. Knocked temps by 4-5 degrees from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 it's just noise. everything will waffle around the eventual solution... especially when we're talking about a difference of 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 18z NAM: 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 it's just noise. everything will waffle around the eventual solution... especially when we're talking about a difference of 50 miles Sea breeze front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Yes it still is considered a heat wave....but in light of recent trends I think we should say especially for the big cities that 3 days of 93 or above is a heat wave as mentioned in the philly section recently totally disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 22-23c 850 temps and NW winds at 10m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 0z Euro held serve with 12z for Thursday and Friday temps. 6z GFS got 1-2 degrees warmer. 6Z NAM is 100+ for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 6z NAM also has the timing of the storms now for Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 0z Euro held serve with 12z for Thursday and Friday temps. 6z GFS got 1-2 degrees warmer. 6Z NAM is 100+ for Friday. It's all about where the wind shift sets up. I don't think we'll know for sure until the day of honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 upton has 90 or better Thursday-Monday with Fri at 96 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.