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June observations and discussions...


ag3

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Ummm no, a heat wave is three consecutive days above 90.

Yes it still is considered a heat wave....but in light of recent trends I think we should say especially for the big cities that 3 days of 93 or above is a heat wave as mentioned in the philly section recently

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nws is a government office that speaks for itself...........lol

What are you talking about? They always do a great job with forecasting with zero hype and BS.

If you want hype go the crappuweather.

Yes it still is considered a heat wave....but in light of recent trends I think we should say especially for the big cities that 3 days of 93 or above is a heat wave as mentioned in the philly section recently

Lol, you and winterwarlok should hang out. Lol

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If we take off 2 or 3 degrees over the Midwest on Thursday, then some areas will make it close to the 110 mark.

That's a really impressive drought baked heat surge pushing into Illinois. Chicago should be able to make it too around 100.

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Not so sure with 3 well above normal days to close the month.

Today will be around a -7 for NYC.

Tomorrow will be a 0 to a -1.

After tomorrow, NYC will be around a -28 total monthly departure.

Thursday should be around a +6 to +8

Friday around a +12 to +14.

It will be a very close call. Friday could be a smaller departure as well. If we get into a very strong thunderstorm with heavy rain, the temps can drop into the 60's quickly, affecting the daily departure.

LGA and JFK have almost no chance at a negative departure.

NYC and EWR are alive.

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If we take off 2 or 3 degrees over the Midwest on Thursday, then some areas will make it close to the 110 mark.

That's a really impressive drought baked heat surge pushing into Illinois. Chicago should be able to make it too around 100.

I never knew what color they used for 110's until now lol.

I hope no one gets hurt in the extreame heat wave.

Will this one be worse than the one last summer that broiled the Midwest?

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And don't forget Saturday ...another potential +10

Today will be around a -7 for NYC.

Tomorrow will be a 0 to a -1.

After tomorrow, NYC will be around a -28 total monthly departure.

Thursday should be around a +6 to +8

Friday around a +12 to +14.

It will be a very close call. Friday could be a smaller departure as well. If we get into a very strong thunderstorm with heavy rain, the temps can drop into the 60's quickly, affecting the daily departure.

LGA and JFK have almost no chance at a negative departure.

NYC and EWR are alive.

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My guess is central park ends up a few tenths below..especially since they tend to struggle to break the low 90s. Ewr will end up a couple tenths above

Seeing Central Park's performance with the last heat wave, NYC should top out 4 degrees lower than EWR.

Given progged 850's, I think EWR will peak higher than the last heat spell. My guess is 100-101 right now, probably on Friday.

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The nam was too hot for last weeks heat correct?

It was the most accurate. GFS/Euro were too cool in this range. NAM was too hot by only 2-3 degrees.

Difference with the GFS and NAM is that the GFS has clouds and scattered rain around on Friday and for Saturday rain for pretty much the whole day.

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date..norm max/min forecast max/min departure...

6/25..........81......66......74......62......-5.5......-19.5

6/26..........81......66......74......58......-7.5......-27.0

6/27..........82......67......83......61......-2.5......-26.5

6/28..........82......67......89......67.....+3.5......-23.0

6/29..........82......67......93......73.....+8.5......-14.5

6/30..........82......67......92......79...+11.0........-3.5

todays max is forecast to reach 74...it would make today a -7.5 if it is that high...that leaves us with a -27...The projected temperatures for the rest of the week are warmer than they were yesterday but it still doesn't erace the negative departure...the month would end with a -0.1 on average...

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12z GFS for comparison:

Thursday: 82

Friday: 89-91

Saturday: 87

Sunday: 89-91

Still major differences with the NAM.

Looks like it will hinge on the wind direction. Where it's westerly, temps will soar likely into the upper 90s with 20c 850's. If we have E/SE winds, we will likely be socked in with a marine layer and temps in the low or mid 80s at best. Looks like something of a pseudo-backdoor could set up here.

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we're not going to get east winds if there's low pressure to our north

the euro still looks hot

It still has the W vs. SSE winds gradient. Actually more then 0z now.

Highs:

Thursday: 84-88

Friday: 85-89

Saturday: 94-98

LI stays in the upper 70's to lower 80's on Friday now.

95-100+ appears west of NJ into PA and down to Philly and DC on Thursday and Friday...

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It still has the W vs. SSE winds gradient. Actually more then 0z now.

Highs:

Thursday: 84-88

Friday: 85-89

Saturday: 94-98

LI stays in the upper 70's to lower 80's on Friday now.

95-100+ appears west of NJ into PA and down to Philly and DC on Thursday and Friday...

it's overdoing the lee trof and holding it too far west. it did that with the heat last year, too. it's the gfs/nam/sref vs the euro for winds friday

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it's overdoing the lee trof and holding it too far west. it did that with the heat last year, too. it's the gfs/nam/sref vs the euro for winds friday

That's fine, but the run itself is cooler then even the GFS and cooler then last night's 0z run.

At the surface...

Whether it makes sense or not, we shall see...

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