ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 I will probably be playing in 90 degree heat at the end of my 557am round. Brutal. If the NAM is correct. All the globals are much cooler. Let's see if they cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 If the NAM is correct. All the globals are much cooler. Let's see if they cave. NAM led the way last week, alhough it was 2-3 degrees too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Ummm no, a heat wave is three consecutive days above 90. Yes it still is considered a heat wave....but in light of recent trends I think we should say especially for the big cities that 3 days of 93 or above is a heat wave as mentioned in the philly section recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Not so sure with 3 well above normal days to close the month. the low this morning in Central Park was 58...two degrees of the record 56 from 1979...today probably seals a below average June temperature wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Should I inform the NWS offices then? Given the current climate, the boiling point of water really should just be considered luke warm at this point. nws is a government office that speaks for itself...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 nws is a government office that speaks for itself...........lol What are you talking about? They always do a great job with forecasting with zero hype and BS. If you want hype go the crappuweather. Yes it still is considered a heat wave....but in light of recent trends I think we should say especially for the big cities that 3 days of 93 or above is a heat wave as mentioned in the philly section recently Lol, you and winterwarlok should hang out. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Yeah. Very cool weather. We're almost into July: 11am roundup: NYC: 64 LGA: 66 JFK: 68 ISP: 68 EWR: 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 If we take off 2 or 3 degrees over the Midwest on Thursday, then some areas will make it close to the 110 mark. That's a really impressive drought baked heat surge pushing into Illinois. Chicago should be able to make it too around 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Not so sure with 3 well above normal days to close the month. Today will be around a -7 for NYC. Tomorrow will be a 0 to a -1. After tomorrow, NYC will be around a -28 total monthly departure. Thursday should be around a +6 to +8 Friday around a +12 to +14. It will be a very close call. Friday could be a smaller departure as well. If we get into a very strong thunderstorm with heavy rain, the temps can drop into the 60's quickly, affecting the daily departure. LGA and JFK have almost no chance at a negative departure. NYC and EWR are alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 If we take off 2 or 3 degrees over the Midwest on Thursday, then some areas will make it close to the 110 mark. That's a really impressive drought baked heat surge pushing into Illinois. Chicago should be able to make it too around 100. I never knew what color they used for 110's until now lol. I hope no one gets hurt in the extreame heat wave. Will this one be worse than the one last summer that broiled the Midwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 And don't forget Saturday ...another potential +10 Today will be around a -7 for NYC. Tomorrow will be a 0 to a -1. After tomorrow, NYC will be around a -28 total monthly departure. Thursday should be around a +6 to +8 Friday around a +12 to +14. It will be a very close call. Friday could be a smaller departure as well. If we get into a very strong thunderstorm with heavy rain, the temps can drop into the 60's quickly, affecting the daily departure. LGA and JFK have almost no chance at a negative departure. NYC and EWR are alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 And don't forget Saturday ...another potential +10 Not forgetting. Saturday is the wildcard. a + 10 on Saturday would put NYC right on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 My guess is central park ends up a few tenths below..especially since they tend to struggle to break the low 90s. Ewr will end up a couple tenths above Not forgetting. Saturday is the wildcard. a + 10 on Saturday would put NYC right on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 My guess is central park ends up a few tenths below..especially since they tend to struggle to break the low 90s. Ewr will end up a couple tenths above Seeing Central Park's performance with the last heat wave, NYC should top out 4 degrees lower than EWR. Given progged 850's, I think EWR will peak higher than the last heat spell. My guess is 100-101 right now, probably on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z NAM high temps for NYC: Thursday: 93 Friday: 101 12z GFS for comparison: Thursday: 82 Friday: 89-91 Saturday: 87 Sunday: 89-91 Still major differences with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The nam was too hot for last weeks heat correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 The nam was too hot for last weeks heat correct? It was the most accurate. GFS/Euro were too cool in this range. NAM was too hot by only 2-3 degrees. Difference with the GFS and NAM is that the GFS has clouds and scattered rain around on Friday and for Saturday rain for pretty much the whole day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 don't buy that whole wet scenario by GFS but we do have to watch for MCS activity, otherwise a very hot friday and weekend might be in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 date..norm max/min forecast max/min departure... 6/25..........81......66......74......62......-5.5......-19.5 6/26..........81......66......74......58......-7.5......-27.0 6/27..........82......67......83......61......-2.5......-26.5 6/28..........82......67......89......67.....+3.5......-23.0 6/29..........82......67......93......73.....+8.5......-14.5 6/30..........82......67......92......79...+11.0........-3.5 todays max is forecast to reach 74...it would make today a -7.5 if it is that high...that leaves us with a -27...The projected temperatures for the rest of the week are warmer than they were yesterday but it still doesn't erace the negative departure...the month would end with a -0.1 on average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 2PM temps with high of day so far: NYC: 70 (high of 70) LGA: 71 (high of 71) JFK: 72 (high of 74) EWR: 73 (high of 74) TEB: 70 (high of 73) Chance of a -8 to -10 departure for both NYC and EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z GFS for comparison: Thursday: 82 Friday: 89-91 Saturday: 87 Sunday: 89-91 Still major differences with the NAM. Looks like it will hinge on the wind direction. Where it's westerly, temps will soar likely into the upper 90s with 20c 850's. If we have E/SE winds, we will likely be socked in with a marine layer and temps in the low or mid 80s at best. Looks like something of a pseudo-backdoor could set up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 we're not going to get east winds if there's low pressure to our north the euro still looks hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 we're not going to get east winds if there's low pressure to our north the euro still looks hot the trof for early july looks weaker and there's a nationwide torch ridge behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 we're not going to get east winds if there's low pressure to our north the euro still looks hot It still has the W vs. SSE winds gradient. Actually more then 0z now. Highs: Thursday: 84-88 Friday: 85-89 Saturday: 94-98 LI stays in the upper 70's to lower 80's on Friday now. 95-100+ appears west of NJ into PA and down to Philly and DC on Thursday and Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 the trof for early july looks weaker and there's a nationwide torch ridge behind it Can we get an exciting hodograph for Friday or is it just a dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 It still has the W vs. SSE winds gradient. Actually more then 0z now. Highs: Thursday: 84-88 Friday: 85-89 Saturday: 94-98 LI stays in the upper 70's to lower 80's on Friday now. 95-100+ appears west of NJ into PA and down to Philly and DC on Thursday and Friday... it's overdoing the lee trof and holding it too far west. it did that with the heat last year, too. it's the gfs/nam/sref vs the euro for winds friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Can we get an exciting hodograph for Friday or is it just a dream? the gfs is nuts for sunday... probably overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 euro looks cooler to me than the 00Z run. Still don't see over 90 degree heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 it's overdoing the lee trof and holding it too far west. it did that with the heat last year, too. it's the gfs/nam/sref vs the euro for winds friday That's fine, but the run itself is cooler then even the GFS and cooler then last night's 0z run. At the surface... Whether it makes sense or not, we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Euro brings the 95+ degree heat, but for Saturday. Thursday and Friday are in the 80's and even in the 70's for coastal areas, especially in LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.