TheTrials Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Ewall maps make it seem like the temps are near 100 just looking at the 850 map. But surface maps don't match. There must be clouds. a lot of activity over the top of the ridge, so clouds and storms are my guess too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Just got home from the City from work and it is a beautiful night in Westchester...broken clouds trending towards clear skies. 61.2/61 Should get into the low to mid 50s across the suburbs with humidity dropping off later and clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 54.6/54 Gorgeous, but it won't last...0z ECM anbd GFS cook us over the weekend. Trough returns to begin July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The 0z Euro is warmer. 90s for the inland spots, Friday thru Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Other then a few hot days, i dont think i have experience such beautiful blue skies, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures in the month of june like this in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 we could potentially see a week long heat wave starting thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 6z NAM is pushing 100 on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Even the cooler GFS brings in 20c 850's on Friday. The models are hinting that there could be a southerly or SSE flow from the city east but maintain a hot offshore flow west. Euro streamlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 6z NAM is pushing 100 on Friday Usual nonsense from the nam. I would go with gfs/euro combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 a week of 90 temps in july should not be considered a heat wave for the current climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 GFS/Euro have highs of 86-92 from Thursday through Sunday. NAM is much higher, especially for Friday, where the 100+ degree line is very close to the city. GFS has a high of 88 for Friday and NAM is 98-100 degrees. Euro is similar to the GFS. NAM for Friday is hour 78-84, which is well past the models useful range, so we have to see if it moderates as we get inside of 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 GFS/Euro have highs of 86-92 from Thursday through Sunday. NAM is much higher, especially for Friday, where the 100+ degree line is very close to the city. GFS has a high of 88 for Friday and NAM is 98-100 degrees. Euro is similar to the GFS. NAM for Friday is hour 78-84, which is well past the models useful range, so we have to see if it moderates as we get inside of 60 hours. I can't tell from the resolution but it looks like the Euro gets the 100 degree line close to Philly on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 a week of 90 temps in july should not be considered a heat wave for the current climate. Ummm no, a heat wave is three consecutive days above 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 I can't tell from the resolution but it looks like the Euro gets the 100 degree line close to Philly on Friday. Yup. 95-100 for the Philly area and for most of Jersey, south of Sandy Hook. It has that SSE flow for the City and east and keeps a tight gradient with temps of 82-85 for LI and 87-91 for NYC north and east. SSE wind gradient might be overdone. Especially for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Yup. 95-100 for the Philly area and for most of Jersey, south of Sandy Hook. It has that SSE flow for the City and east and keeps a tight gradient with temps of 82-85 for LI and 87-91 for NYC north and east. If that SSE flow verified, then we would really underperform those 20c 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 If that SSE flow verified, then we would really underperform those 20c 850's. Thats the difference with the GFS/Euro and the NAM. GFS/EURO keeps that SSE flow almost the whole time the 850's are above 20c while the NAM extends the westerly winds into all of LI for the same time period. Should be interesting to watch and a tough forecast to make right now. Could be one of these deals where JFK tops out at 85, while NYC and LGA top out at 95+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Hopefully the global models verify and they keep the city cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Hopefully the global models verify and they keep the city cooler. Agree 100 percent. I slept with my window open last night. It felt so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 a week of 90 temps in july should not be considered a heat wave for the current climate. Should I inform the NWS offices then? Given the current climate, the boiling point of water really should just be considered luke warm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Agree 100 percent. I slept with my window open last night. It felt so good. If you don't want heat in the summer, move north, and if you don't want cold in the winter, move south. Don't get me wrong, I love this weather, but I like my summer 90s too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The global models over-did the southeast wind forecasts for several days leading up to last weeks heat wave. In this case, though, we have to watch it carefully with the departing upper air trof. There is a nice gradient setting up, regardless, and we should end up on the warm side of it for at least a day or two before height falls occur. This is a very warm ridge, too, and some of the models have warmer 850 temps than last week just off to our south. Areas that get under those temps aloft should be able to reach 100F. But the gradient in our area still argues for an MCS or storms at least at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Thats the difference with the GFS/Euro and the NAM. GFS/EURO keeps that SSE flow almost the whole time the 850's are above 20c while the NAM extends the westerly winds into all of LI for the same time period. Should be interesting to watch and a tough forecast to make right now. Could be one of these deals where JFK tops out at 85, while NYC and LGA top out at 95+. Yeah, the source region out where the drought is as hot as it gets this time of year. A large portion of the country to our south and west will see record heat as the ridge builds east. The number of all time monthly record highs and ties have not let up since March. AT 334 PM MDT...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 105 DEGREES AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS READING TIES THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DENVER...ALSO REACHED ON JULY 20 2005 AND AUGUST 8 1878. THIS MARK ALSO BREAKS THE ALL TIME JUNE RECORD HIGH OF 104 DEGREES...AS WELL AS THE OLD RECORD OF 100 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 1991. Record daily high temperatures were also set earlier this month (old record in parentheses): June 24 102 (100, 2007) June 23 104 (102, 1954) June 22 102 (98, 1874) June 18 100 (99, 1990) June 9 95 (tie, 2002) June 4 94 (93, 2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 This is the third consecutive euro run to back off on marine influence saturday... It had a weird low to our south which doesn't fit the overall pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Very impressive - I'm at 64F and mostly cloudy 11am in late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Very impressive - I'm at 64F and mostly cloudy 11am in late June. Yeah. Very cool weather. We're almost into July: 11am roundup: NYC: 64 LGA: 66 JFK: 68 ISP: 68 EWR: 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 If models are correct, this may be our coolest day for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 the low this morning in Central Park was 58...two degrees of the record 56 from 1979...today probably seals a below average June temperature wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z NAM high temps for NYC: Thursday: 93 Friday: 101 Friday high temp map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 12z NAM high temps for NYC: Thursday: 93 Friday: 101 Friday high temp map: I will probably be playing in 90 degree heat at the end of my 557am round. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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