uncle W Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Euro has 20+ 850's both Friday and Saturday. Negative departures are being wiped out by 4-5 days of big positive departures. as of yesterday NYC's June average temp was -0.6 ......That's about a -14 departure...national weather service normals from their site and their forecast for the period... date..norm max/min forecast max/min departure... 6/25..........81......66......78......64......-2.5......-16.5 6/26..........81......66......76......60......-5.5......-22.0 6/27..........82......67......82......61......-3.0......-25.0 6/28..........82......67......86......64.....+0.5......-24.5 6/29..........82......67......89......67.....+3.5......-21.0 6/30..........82......67......92......72.....+7.5......-13.5 the month will end up around -0.3-0.5 ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 12z GFS keeps the heat well south of our area now for Friday and Saturday. Friday stays in the low to mid 80's Saturday in the mid to upper 80's Sunday in the mid 80's Big difference with last night's 0z euro which had 95+ degree heat for Friday to Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 12z GFS keeps the heat well south of our area now for Friday and Saturday. Friday stays in the low to mid 80's Saturday in the mid to upper 80's Sunday in the mid 80's Big difference with last night's 0z euro which had 95+ degree heat for Friday to Sunday. how does Friday morning look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 a little OT, but did anyone else see the GFS schooled the Euro with the TS in the gulf? Absolutely owned it. check out scott's post in NE...the GFS Was just as bad--it had it racing NE...instead it's meandering. While better, the GFS certainly had its flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 12z GFS keeps the heat well south of our area now for Friday and Saturday. Friday stays in the low to mid 80's Saturday in the mid to upper 80's Sunday in the mid 80's Big difference with last night's 0z euro which had 95+ degree heat for Friday to Sunday. that would be a perfect weekend if it verified...too bad it's the GFS...want to see the Euro on board before I buy anything the GFS prints out beyond day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 check out scott's post in NE...the GFS Was just as bad--it had it racing NE...instead it's meandering. While better, the GFS certainly had its flaws. Better than a landfall in Texas LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Better than a landfall in Texas LOL agree. Euro was terrible. Climo was against that path. Wonder how it will affect our weather if at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 agree. Euro was terrible. Climo was against that path. Wonder how it will affect our weather if at all? GFS says it's coming up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 GFS still looks above 90 with 850's over 16c and sw flow. The euro has been overdone in both directions beyond day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 GFS still looks above 90 with 850's over 16c and sw flow. The euro has been overdone in both directions beyond day 4 Saturday is close to 90, especially inland. But Friday and Sunday are cooler then last night's run which had 850's of 20+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Saturday is close to 90, especially inland. But Friday and Sunday are cooler then last night's run which had 850's of 20+ for Friday and Saturday. we'll have to wait for the gfes. I'm not sold on a wf getting stuck to our s with low pressure n of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The GEFS are close to the 0z Euro ensemble mean coming in at 18-19c at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 The GEFS are close to the 0z Euro ensemble mean coming in at 18-19c at 850 mb. For which days? Can you post individually Fri, Sat. + Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 the euro would be pretty hot friday if it didn't have this weird little low to our south. it had it for saturday too on the 00z run but it backed off a bit today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 the euro would be pretty hot friday if it didn't have this weird little low to our south. it had it for saturday too on the 00z run but it backed off a bit today there's also a PRE type event associated with debby sun-mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 there's also a PRE type event associated with debby sun-mon And it follows the GFS and brings Debbie up the coast also. Crazy solutions. I think until Debbie is squared away, models will vary wildly with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 And it follows the GFS and brings Debbie up the coast also. Crazy solutions. I think until Debbie is squared away, models will vary wildly with each run. That's the truth. Debbie erodes the ridge off the SE coast while as Forky mentioned there will be a PRE somewhere northward of Debbie along the coast. We'll probably need to see how Debbie's timing and track verifies to know how things are going to work out. Record breaking heat looks like a given over the Ohio Valley and parts of the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 That's the truth. Debbie erodes the ridge off the SE coast while as Forky mentioned there will be a PRE somewhere northward of Debbie along the coast. We'll probably need to see how Debbie's timing and track verifies to know how things are going to work out. Record breaking heat likes like a given over the Ohio Valley and parts of the Southeast. Yeah. Verbatim, the 12z euro has no real heat Thursday to Sunday, looking at raw soundings. Tops out 84-88 on all the days. Perhaps 90+ on Friday for the interior. A pretty big shift, compared to last night, which had 95-100 degrees for Friday and Saturday. But it's volatile because of Debbie, so we probably wont know even our temps until Wedneday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Yeah. Verbatim, the 12z euro has no real heat Thursday to Sunday, looking at raw soundings. Tops out 84-88 on all the days. Perhaps 90+ on Friday for the interior. A pretty big shift, compared to last night, which had 95-100 degrees for Friday and Saturday. But it's volatile because of Debbie, so we probably wont know even our temps until Wedneday. last night was colder than 12z. at least according to the wunderground maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Either way long term on euro and gfs look hot and humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Would be sweet if this verified...100 F temps and our area is right along a gradient ripe for MCS activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Would be sweet if this verified...100 F temps and our area is right along a gradient ripe for MCS activity. That would definitely be interesting, but aside from it being the DGEX, this run is from 2 days ago... e-wall's been having some issues for the last 2-3 days, such as its 0z NAM run which didn't update beyond hour 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Beautiful sunset, after the rain, looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 That would definitely be interesting, but aside from it being the DGEX, this run is from 2 days ago... e-wall's been having some issues for the last 2-3 days, such as its 0z NAM run which didn't update beyond hour 9. The Mid-West and the Deep South are going to roast this week. Most of Kansas will be over 110 tommorow. We are right on the edge of that death ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 The Mid-West and the Deep South are going to roast this week. Most of Kansas will be over 110 tommorow. We are right on the edge of that death ridge. I have no doubt central and southern parts of the US are going to seriously torch. The question is how far north the heat comes up, as despite the DGEX map on e-wall being outdated, it does show that at least we should be close to the northern edge of the heat with storm chances as earthlight mentioned (100 degree part from the DGEX, not so much). The majority of the models show 850mb temps close to 20C but with storm chances and highs in the 80s on rainy days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 That would definitely be interesting, but aside from it being the DGEX, this run is from 2 days ago... e-wall's been having some issues for the last 2-3 days, such as its 0z NAM run which didn't update beyond hour 9. Yeah, eWall has gone down the drain the last several months with awful update frequency. The 06z run updated, for whatever reason, and looks fairly similar. The 18z NAM from this afternoon, which updated, has the same idea. The general H5 pattern seems to argue for a potential surge of heat by the end of the week, and the gradient aloft and at the surface also argues for potential organized convection. The caveat could be the mid level warmth and capping. We'll see.. http://www.meteo.psu...AST_6z/f132.gif http://www.meteo.psu...AST_6z/f132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 SPC notes a similar idea here in their 4-8 day outlook ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DUE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Yeah, eWall has gone down the drain the last several months with awful update frequency. The 06z run updated, for whatever reason, and looks fairly similar. The 18z NAM from this afternoon, which updated, has the same idea. The general H5 pattern seems to argue for a potential surge of heat by the end of the week, and the gradient aloft and at the surface also argues for potential organized convection. The caveat could be the mid level warmth and capping. We'll see.. http://www.meteo.psu...AST_6z/f132.gif http://www.meteo.psu...AST_6z/f132.gif That time period does have somewhat of an interesting look to it as the gradient potentially sticks around for a few days, bringing more than a 1-day storm risk potential. Could be a case where some days are stormy and others are drier with 90s in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Yeah. Verbatim, the 12z euro has no real heat Thursday to Sunday, looking at raw soundings. Tops out 84-88 on all the days. Perhaps 90+ on Friday for the interior. A pretty big shift, compared to last night, which had 95-100 degrees for Friday and Saturday. But it's volatile because of Debbie, so we probably wont know even our temps until Wedneday. stormvista maps agree with your assesment of the 12z euro. Does not appear we get to the 90 or above mark, maybe KEWR touches it. Lots of time to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 stormvista maps agree with your assesment of the 12z euro. Does not appear we get to the 90 or above mark, maybe KEWR touches it. Lots of time to watch it. Ewall maps make it seem like the temps are near 100 just looking at the 850 map. But surface maps don't match. There must be clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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