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June observations and discussions...


ag3

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18z GFS looks ripe for MCS potential to kick off July. I hate throwing out that word b/c it rarely ever happens, but 'tis the season to see them. Differential advection rolling around the periphery of the mid level ridge. Often times they ride along the 582dm height line which may be near the region next weekend. Far ahead but something to monitor for convection.

In other news, rapid warm trend by late week; 90s likely by Friday. Tue-Thur look gorgeous.

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18z GFS looks ripe for MCS potential to kick off July. I hate throwing out that word b/c it rarely ever happens, but 'tis the season to see them. Differential advection rolling around the periphery of the mid level ridge. Often times they ride along the 582dm height line which may be near the region next weekend. Far ahead but something to monitor for convection.

In other news, rapid warm trend by late week; 90s likely by Friday. Tue-Thur look gorgeous.

Tue - Thu im worried that clouds could get in the way, speaking oh which they look to arrive by mid morning or sooner tomorrow.

I certainly agree with the likelihood of increased storm potential in an otherwise warm pattern to open july as the core of the ridge still centered west and weak troughing over the northeast. But the heat should still come in 2 - 3 day spikes starting this friday-sat (6/29 - 6/30). Then perhaps by jul 4th/5th.

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Tue - Thu im worried that clouds could get in the way, speaking oh which they look to arrive by mid morning or sooner tomorrow.

I certainly agree with the likelihood of increased storm potential in an otherwise warm pattern to open july as the core of the ridge still centered west and weak troughing over the northeast. But the heat should still come in 2 - 3 day spikes starting this friday-sat (6/29 - 6/30). Then perhaps by jul 4th/5th.

I think the vortex will lift far enough north to keep our area predominately sunny for Tue-Thur, but we'll see. Agree for rest; this should be the pattern for the summer -- 2 to 3 day bursts of heat followed by NW flow cool downs. Trough tending to buckle in the Northeast US.

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What are we thinking on rain chances for next Sunday? Throwing a BBQ for fiancée bday. Thanks.

50/50, have to watch the remnants of Debby and how much moisture from her gets pulled up our way, along with the frontal passage timing. 12Z EC has Debby lingering over the SE and front coming through around Sunday AM it appears.

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The core of the next heat surge looks to be to our south but it may get close enough for Newark to make a run on 95 degrees.

This one seems to follow the pattern of most of the heat we've had this year. Brief yet intense surge of heat preceded and followed by closer to average temperatures while the core stays further south/west. The next heat surge should also be short lasting, although with 850mb temperatures this warm at least 1 day of 90s is easily possible.

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It matters when you move towards winter and we are looking at the performance of the new GFS.

And for which model will perform better during this years hurricane season. The new GFS might be the model to go to this year.

I'd like to see how it performs with the next tropical storm/hurricane.

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