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June observations and discussions...


ag3

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hit 91 today IMBY and we have seen no rain at all, been mostly sunny this afternoon after clouds around 1 PM to the north and then to the south

for me today was the most brutal this morning with the combo of heat and humidity and the third day of heat starting to wear me down but done early and I will miss this heat

and again for the doom and gloomers here is my Mt Holly forecast for next week...

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 86.

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hit 91 today IMBY and we have seen no rain at all, been mostly sunny this afternoon after clouds around 1 PM to the north and then to the south

for me today was the most brutal this morning with the combo of heat and humidity and the third day of heat starting to wear me down but done early and I will miss this heat

and again for the doom and gloomers here is my Mt Holly forecast for next week...

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 86.

Not sure who is doom and gloom. Monday through Friday will likely be normal to below normal. That's what we have all said and now it looks likely.

Good news for you,

the 12z Euro brings back the heat around June 30th for a few days.

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next weekend is looking warmer and warmer

the 12z euro ensemble mean pushed the 850mb +20 isotherm further north than 0z. from central va on the 00z run to southern nj on the 12z run (valid 18z next saturday)

18z gfs is warmer as well next weekend and july 4th week . Perhaps a trend....

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Next week's cool shot is very short-lived, and we should be well into the 80s by Thursday the 28th, with Friday and Saturday potentially into the 90s. Tues/Wed are the only cooler than normal days IMO, and even they aren't too bad. Probably upper 70s.

The first week of July looks warm to me as well. Right now, given the looks of late next week, I'd give an above normal June about a 65% chance.

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Next week's cool shot is very short-lived, and we should be well into the 80s by Thursday the 28th, with Friday and Saturday potentially into the 90s. Tues/Wed are the only cooler than normal days IMO, and even they aren't too bad. Probably upper 70s.

The first week of July looks warm to me as well. Right now, given the looks of late next week, I'd give an above normal June about a 65% chance.

Monday looks cooler then normal also and Thursday is borderline.

Euro and it's ensembles try and bring back the heat by the 30th.

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Monday looks cooler then normal also and Thursday is borderline.

Euro and it's ensembles try and bring back the heat by the 30th.

Depending on the actual negative anomalies, NYC has a good chance at a negative departure. LGA is on the edge, as are JFK and EWR.

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Next week's cool shot is very short-lived, and we should be well into the 80s by Thursday the 28th, with Friday and Saturday potentially into the 90s. Tues/Wed are the only cooler than normal days IMO, and even they aren't too bad. Probably upper 70s.

The first week of July looks warm to me as well. Right now, given the looks of late next week, I'd give an above normal June about a 65% chance.

I could see highs staying in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday especially if the low forms overhead. The models have also been flip-flopping with how far north that vortex retreats, and that will influence how much ridging builds in behind it. I also think Monday is going to be a bit cooler as a reinforcing cold front should cross the area Sunday night into Monday early morning.

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Monday looks cooler then normal also and Thursday is borderline.

Euro and it's ensembles try and bring back the heat by the 30th.

Euro MJO is in phase 2 through 1st week of July which should be showing cooler weather. It will correct itself as we get closer. Go look at week 4 euro weeklies 3 weeks ago for next week, had big ridge.

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Not sure who is doom and gloom. Monday through Friday will likely be normal to below normal. That's what we have all said and now it looks likely.

Good news for you,

the 12z Euro brings back the heat around June 30th for a few days.

when I have time on my hands I will go and locate the posts in question and many of them called for rain as well dont forget that. Upper 70s with sunshine except for Monday..boy that is doom and gloom

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You can see the evolution of the piece of the heat coming east for later next week.

A big 594+ dm ridge flexes its muscles out west over the next few days. Due to all

the blocking now, we return to more troughing early to mid week which gradually

lifts out. The Euro ensemble mean brings 18-20c 850's back with the push of heat

heading into next weekend. After the warmest departures leave, temps still look

to remain above normal into early July as 850's remain +16 c.

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With so much of the Central and Western parts of the US under drought conditions, these

ridge amplifications have been producing record heat over those areas. It will be ultimately

up to the other players on the board as to how much of this heat is able to make it to the East

Coast at any given time. This is the kind of pattern which much of the US can experience

really high to locally record breaking heat as we move through July into August.

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Most stations in the Upton area are now between -0.1 and +0.3 for the month of June. Coolest spots are EWR at -0.5 and NYC at -0.8. This weekend looks like slight positives, probably slight negatives a couple days next week. NYC will likely be around -0.5 heading into the last 2 days of June, which depending upon the heat pulse for Thur-Sat, could push NYC into the above normal territory. But it looks like most stations IMO will finish June a bit above normal.

06z GFS seems to indicate the heat pulse is now Thur-Fri rather than Fri-Sat, in terms of 90 potential.

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Its been the summer of beautiful weekends...

Agree. Even when the weekdays began to go consistently crappola beginning in April it's been not only nice but mostly superb weather on weekends with only a few issues..at least out here in Port Jeff area of LI

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12z ECM still shows the brief heat surge moving in next weekend before the next trough approaches. It's nothing close to a hot pattern as the biggest heat stays south/west but once again shows that the trough doesn't completely lock into the East with long lasting below-well below average temps. The pattern this month until now was a mostly chilly one but still wasn't completely heat-free as the recent heat wave confirmed, and probably should continue to support occasional but not long lasting periods of heat through the next month.

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