Weathergun Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 We'll see how the NAM does today, with the cloudcover. It has it breaking up around noon. Also I think it's going to be a close call between negative and positive departure, for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Heh, the DGEX now has 20+C 850s advecting towards the area again on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the trough over Central Canada. 6z DGEX backed off and now has low to mid 80's for Saturday and low 80's for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Sunday remained cloudy until about 4:00 and yesterday was basically overcast all day so I wouldn't be surprised if we keep the cloud cover again today We'll see how the NAM does today, with the cloudcover. It has it breaking up around noon. Also I think it's going to be a close call between negative and positive departure, for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Sunday remained cloudy until about 4:00 and yesterday was basically overcast all day so I wouldn't be surprised if we keep the cloud cover again today Alert the press Newark cracked 70 finally. Clouds are hanging tough but we should get into some more pornounced breaks in the next couple of hours. Feeling much warmer out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 the 12z nam has not backed off on 100s for tomorrow and thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 This cool weather blows. Its summertime! I want to be able to swim in the pool that i do not have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Except for that one moderately warm and humid day (which only reached 84 F), this has been a great month. Perfect for hiking. Not having to use the A/C has been nice too. Great sleeping weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Clearing working its way through Scranton. Could get a few hours of sun to push us for a positive daily. But clouds in the way of an appetizer 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 This cool weather blows. Its summertime! I want to be able to swim in the pool that i do not have... You can swim in my pool if you bring the dutch girl. Up to 73 here with skies brightening a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 In addition to still maintaining the 100 degree outlook for NE NJ/NYC, for what it's worth the 12z NAM also extends the 100 degree heat into central Long Island away from the immediate coast at 18z Thursday. Its 18z frame shows west winds at that time before turning to the SW by 21z. The other NAM runs today also had west/WNW winds in Long Island for the first part of the afternoon before the onshore winds develop and temperatures cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 the 12z nam has not backed off on 100s for tomorrow and thurs It actually got hotter for Thursday. Now has widespread 100+ degrees; even into LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Euro and Gfs are alot more reliable than the nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Mostly sunny here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 12z GFS still not in the NAM camp for tomorrow or Thursday. Max temps for NYC are around 93-95 for both days. Are the Mos #s showing higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 12z GFS kind of aligned with the ECm for a crappy pattern 6/25 - 6/29 before things moderate and warm back to normal. Worst of it looks tue/wed imply cloudy rain chanes..... Still dont think we will get as cool as the few days but we shall see. Bottom line the period looks to eat away at the positives that we gain today through sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 In a crappy pattern, highs could easily stay in the low 70s, lows will probably be somewhat higher, but it would definitely be enough to generate more cooler than normal readings. The big question is how hot does it really get from Wed-Friday, Saturday will probably be slightly above normal and Sunday could be near normal, then cooler next week. Those very warm lows for the next few days will really help create some positive departures, even more so then the highs could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Sun is also starting to peek out of the clouds in C NJ, it's the brightest the sun has been all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Still cloudy as of 1PM here in NW New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 11pm roundup TEB: 75 NYC: 74 EWR: 74 LGA: 74 JFK: 71 ISP: 68 TTN: 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 12z GFS still not in the NAM camp for tomorrow or Thursday. Max temps for NYC are around 93-95 for both days. Are the Mos #s showing higher? Not surprising IMO since the GFS tends to underestimate heat during heat spells, slightly in some cases and significantly in other cases. The GFS MOS (MAV) guidance on NWS has 93/95 in NYC for Weds/Thurs, respectively, 96/97 in Newark, and 98/99 in Teterboro. Meanwhile the NAM MOS (MET) guidance has 95/99 in NYC, 99/101 in Newark, and 100/102 in Teterboro, although I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM is slightly overdoing the heat especially for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Not surprising IMO since the GFS tends to underestimate heat during heat spells, slightly in some cases and significantly in other cases. The GFS MOS (MAV) guidance on NWS has 93/95 in NYC for Weds/Thurs, respectively, 96/97 in Newark, and 98/99 in Teterboro. Meanwhile the NAM MOS (MET) guidance has 95/99 in NYC, 99/101 in Newark, and 100/102 in Teterboro, although I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM is slightly overdoing the heat especially for tomorrow. Euro is closer to the GFS, which is why I give it some credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Sun is also starting to peek out of the clouds in C NJ, it's the brightest the sun has been all day. I'm in kenilworth nj and the sun was out about 15 minutes ago... It's become cloudy again since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Sun is also starting to peek out of the clouds in C NJ, it's the brightest the sun has been all day. getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 three times NYC had 100 degrees in June...1934, 1952 and 1966...here are the daily's for those heat waves... max...min...date... ..82...65...6/28/1934 101...68...6/29/1934 ..91...74...6/30/1934 .................................. ..64...58...6/23/1952 ..85...62...6/24/1952 ..99...75...6/25/1952 100...81...6/26/1952 ................................... ..82...64...6/26/1966 101...70...6/27/1966 ..93...76...6/28/1966 ................................ 1934 and 1966 had a max of 82 the day before the 101 degrees max...todays max might not reach 80...I doubt tomorrow NYC will be near 100...Thursday??? I hope not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I think we're looking at above normal temps right until FROPA on Monday the 25th. Friday could feature 90s, particularly SW of NYC, and both Saturday and Sunday could be mid/upper 80s, then low 80s Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I think we're looking at above normal temps right until FROPA on Monday the 25th. Friday could feature 90s, particularly SW of NYC, and both Saturday and Sunday could be mid/upper 80s, then low 80s Monday. What is the average temp for the area anyway? I know for my local area, it's 81/65 as of the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 EWR is 83/64, up to 84/65 by the weekend. They are -2.6 for the month so with 11 days to go figure to reach normal they'd have to be +5 the rest of the month. The 20th -24th will probably be at least +10. Depending on next week still have a solid chance at getting to slightly above normal. But we're talking like +.2-+.5 What is the average temp for the area anyway? I know for my local area, it's 81/65 as of the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 12z Euro still holding on to 93-96 degrees for both Wednesday and Thursday for NYC. Similar to the GFS. Blend of NAM/GFS/Euro should bring us to 98 degrees or so on both days with 100+ degrees a possibility, especially west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 EWR is 83/64, up to 84/65 by the weekend. They are -2.6 for the month so with 11 days to go figure to reach normal they'd have to be +5 the rest of the month. The 20th -24th will probably be at least +10. Depending on next week still have a solid chance at getting to slightly above normal. But we're talking like +.2-+.5 Newark will be around -50 total after today. From tomorrow until Sunday, could possibly erase almost all of it. Tomorrow should be around +12 to +16 Same for Thursday +12 to +16 Friday around +8 Saturday and Sunday both around +5 to + 8 That brings them at to slightly above normal by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Newark will be around -50 total after today. From tomorrow until Sunday, could possibly erase almost all of it. Tomorrow should be around +12 to +16 Same for Thursday +12 to +16 Friday around +8 Saturday and Sunday both around +5 to + 8 That brings them at to slightly above normal by Monday. Might pull a pus 2 or 3 today. Sunday clouds worry me but mins will be high. Mon - fri next week eesh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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