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June observations and discussions...


ag3

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Sunday remained cloudy until about 4:00 and yesterday was basically overcast all day so I wouldn't be surprised if we keep the cloud cover again today

We'll see how the NAM does today, with the cloudcover. It has it breaking up around noon. Also I think it's going to be a close call between negative and positive departure, for June.

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Sunday remained cloudy until about 4:00 and yesterday was basically overcast all day so I wouldn't be surprised if we keep the cloud cover again today

Alert the press Newark cracked 70 finally. Clouds are hanging tough but we should get into some more pornounced breaks in the next couple of hours. Feeling much warmer out too.

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In addition to still maintaining the 100 degree outlook for NE NJ/NYC, for what it's worth the 12z NAM also extends the 100 degree heat into central Long Island away from the immediate coast at 18z Thursday. Its 18z frame shows west winds at that time before turning to the SW by 21z. The other NAM runs today also had west/WNW winds in Long Island for the first part of the afternoon before the onshore winds develop and temperatures cool down.

temp54.gif

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12z GFS kind of aligned with the ECm for a crappy pattern 6/25 - 6/29 before things moderate and warm back to normal. Worst of it looks tue/wed imply cloudy rain chanes..... Still dont think we will get as cool as the few days but we shall see. Bottom line the period looks to eat away at the positives that we gain today through sunday...

gfs_namer_171_500_vort_ht.gif

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In a crappy pattern, highs could easily stay in the low 70s, lows will probably be somewhat higher, but it would definitely be enough to generate more cooler than normal readings. The big question is how hot does it really get from Wed-Friday, Saturday will probably be slightly above normal and Sunday could be near normal, then cooler next week. Those very warm lows for the next few days will really help create some positive departures, even more so then the highs could.

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12z GFS still not in the NAM camp for tomorrow or Thursday.

Max temps for NYC are around 93-95 for both days.

Are the Mos #s showing higher?

Not surprising IMO since the GFS tends to underestimate heat during heat spells, slightly in some cases and significantly in other cases. The GFS MOS (MAV) guidance on NWS has 93/95 in NYC for Weds/Thurs, respectively, 96/97 in Newark, and 98/99 in Teterboro. Meanwhile the NAM MOS (MET) guidance has 95/99 in NYC, 99/101 in Newark, and 100/102 in Teterboro, although I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM is slightly overdoing the heat especially for tomorrow.

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Not surprising IMO since the GFS tends to underestimate heat during heat spells, slightly in some cases and significantly in other cases. The GFS MOS (MAV) guidance on NWS has 93/95 in NYC for Weds/Thurs, respectively, 96/97 in Newark, and 98/99 in Teterboro. Meanwhile the NAM MOS (MET) guidance has 95/99 in NYC, 99/101 in Newark, and 100/102 in Teterboro, although I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM is slightly overdoing the heat especially for tomorrow.

Euro is closer to the GFS, which is why I give it some credence.

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three times NYC had 100 degrees in June...1934, 1952 and 1966...here are the daily's for those heat waves...

max...min...date...

..82...65...6/28/1934

101...68...6/29/1934

..91...74...6/30/1934

..................................

..64...58...6/23/1952

..85...62...6/24/1952

..99...75...6/25/1952

100...81...6/26/1952

...................................

..82...64...6/26/1966

101...70...6/27/1966

..93...76...6/28/1966

................................

1934 and 1966 had a max of 82 the day before the 101 degrees max...todays max might not reach 80...I doubt tomorrow NYC will be near 100...Thursday??? I hope not...

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I think we're looking at above normal temps right until FROPA on Monday the 25th. Friday could feature 90s, particularly SW of NYC, and both Saturday and Sunday could be mid/upper 80s, then low 80s Monday.

What is the average temp for the area anyway? I know for my local area, it's 81/65 as of the 19th.

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EWR is 83/64, up to 84/65 by the weekend. They are -2.6 for the month so with 11 days to go figure to reach normal they'd have to be +5 the rest of the month. The 20th -24th will probably be at least +10. Depending on next week still have a solid chance at getting to slightly above normal. But we're talking like +.2-+.5

What is the average temp for the area anyway? I know for my local area, it's 81/65 as of the 19th.

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12z Euro still holding on to 93-96 degrees for both Wednesday and Thursday for NYC.

Similar to the GFS.

Blend of NAM/GFS/Euro should bring us to 98 degrees or so on both days with 100+ degrees a possibility, especially west of NYC.

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EWR is 83/64, up to 84/65 by the weekend. They are -2.6 for the month so with 11 days to go figure to reach normal they'd have to be +5 the rest of the month. The 20th -24th will probably be at least +10. Depending on next week still have a solid chance at getting to slightly above normal. But we're talking like +.2-+.5

Newark will be around -50 total after today.

From tomorrow until Sunday, could possibly erase almost all of it.

Tomorrow should be around +12 to +16

Same for Thursday +12 to +16

Friday around +8

Saturday and Sunday both around +5 to + 8

That brings them at to slightly above normal by Monday.

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Newark will be around -50 total after today.

From tomorrow until Sunday, could possibly erase almost all of it.

Tomorrow should be around +12 to +16

Same for Thursday +12 to +16

Friday around +8

Saturday and Sunday both around +5 to + 8

That brings them at to slightly above normal by Monday.

Might pull a pus 2 or 3 today. Sunday clouds worry me but mins will be high. Mon - fri next week eesh.....

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