earthlight Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Only 100? That's shocking, I'm shocked it's not showing 120F. People laughed when it was showing 100 F for Wed & Thu a week ago, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 relax, it has not even started, enjoy the heat...but it will be back, its not going to be that cold next week...more like normal, lots of wishful thinking CPC's new 6-10 day outlook does show below normal. This could be the hottest part of the summer. Joe B Typhoon recurve rule works wonders. Major trough in the east in about 6-8 days..models pick up on it more as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 CPC's new 6-10 day outlook does show below normal. This could be the hottest part of the summer. one analog that has been talked about this Spring and Summer is 1965...The hottest part of that year was the last week in June...this year could be a wetter version of 1965... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 relax, it has not even started, enjoy the heat...but it will be back, its not going to be that cold next week...more like normal, lots of wishful thinking Didn't you already say "wishful thinking" about two weeks ago when folks were talking about below normal temps coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 It's similar to forecasting a blizzard -- a highly anomalous event. You'll rarely hear meteorologists forecasting 1-2ft+ accumulations more than 24 hours in advance of a storm, because it's such a deviation from climatology. In this case, average temps are in the low 80s, so a high of 100F is a significant event, and thus it's very risky to forecast it more than 1-2 days out. We can talk about potentials here on the weather board well in advance, but I think if we had to put a forecast out to the public, we'd also start them off w/ low 90s, then gradually trend upwards as confidence increases closer to the time period. There's a bit of a difference between 1-2 feet of snow and 100 degrees. Busting too high on the temperature will not have many consequences (so what if it's only 95 when it was supposed to be 100, it's still hot). Busting too high for snow has more consequences since it will annoy those who prepared for a lot of snow that didn't fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Didn't you already say "wishful thinking" about two weeks ago when folks were talking about below normal temps coming? Do you work for Joe Bastardi? (just curious, because you are always promoting him) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Mon dailies NYC: 70/57 (-7) EWR: 69/60 (-8) LGA: 71/59 (-8) JFK: 68/55 (-10) TTN: 72/53 (-8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 with temps running above normal the next 5 or 6 days (6/19 - 6/24), here's where we stand NYC: -2.5 EWR: -2.6 LGA: -1.6 JFK: -1.9 TTN: -2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 The ECMWF certainly has an anomalous 500 mb height pattern for day 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 The ECMWF certainly has an anomalous 500 mb height pattern for day 7-10. Very July 09 like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Do you work for Joe Bastardi? (just curious, because you are always promoting him) I wish I did but no such luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Latest Newark outlook by Upton... missed the 100 mark twice by just 1 degree. If anything, I'm even more confident someone in the area could break 100 degrees. Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. West wind between 7 and 11 mph. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. West wind between 5 and 11 mph. Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Northwest wind between 7 and 13 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 The 6z NAM today has low 90s by 11am Friday. The cold front is weakening as it approaches us and we start off in the low 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 This is going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Mon dailies NYC: 70/57 (-7) EWR: 69/60 (-8) LGA: 71/59 (-8) JFK: 68/55 (-10) TTN: 72/53 (-8) Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 This is going to suck. no it will not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Didn't you already say "wishful thinking" about two weeks ago when folks were talking about below normal temps coming? and what about the posts last week that said no heat on the way for 10-14 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 For next week, If the core of the upper-level low moves over us, then there will probably be some below normal temps here. But the models have been inconsistent in handling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 no it will not You are crazy. If you enjoy the upper 90's with dew's in the 70's then move down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 For next week, If the upper-level low moves over us, then there will probably be some below normal temps here. But the models have been inconsistent in handling it. Yeah euro has it cool and very unsettled next week.....enjoy the heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Models are getting warmer for Friday and Saturday now also. Looks like Friday is likely to be above 90 as well and Saturday has a shot as well, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 Last nights euro was also colder with a deeper trough for next week. Ensembles were a little less aggressive but still similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 You are crazy. If you enjoy the upper 90's with dew's in the 70's then move down south. No need to. I hope ISP delivers, seeing as I'll probably be there both days (well not actually there but nearby). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Last nights euro was also colder with a deeper trough for next week. Ensembles were a little less aggressive but still similar. Yeah thats 3 runs in a row the euro has that signal and even though the gfs is less impressive with the trough it still has sort of upper cut off over new england tue - fri (6/26 - 6/30) next week. Likey safe to say tue - fr the last 4 days of June will be unsetteled and take us back some on the departures. I still dont think we see impressive cool lke we have the last couple of days. Lets see where we head with today's guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 We have to watch for clouds tomorrow as well. That's why the NAM is several degrees higher then the euro/nam for tomorrow. Euro/GFS show 93-95, while the NAM is 100+ degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 no it will not Do you have air conditioning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Clouds will hang tough for a good portion today and as ag3 said clouds really the only thing that could prevent record heat in my opinion tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I wonder if the month will end slightly below normal, I guess it all depends on how hot it gets for the next 3 days and then if the last few days end up below normal. Where do we stand right now for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I wonder if the month will end slightly below normal, I guess it all depends on how hot it gets for the next 3 days and then if the last few days end up below normal. Where do we stand right now for the month? -2.5 for the 18days...around a -45 departure...Today's temps might add to the negative...we probably will see a below average June...probably -0.5 to -1.0... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 I wonder if the month will end slightly below normal, I guess it all depends on how hot it gets for the next 3 days and then if the last few days end up below normal. Where do we stand right now for the month? -2.5 for the 18days...around a -45 departure...Today's temps might add to the negative...we probably will see a below average June...probably -0.5 to -1.0... It all depends on the extent of the Heat wave. If tomorrow and Thursday both hit 98 degrees with only 80 degree lows, then we are talking about -15 to -20 departures. Then add in the warming trend for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and there is a chance we wipe out all of the -45 to -50 departure in these next 5 days. But we might be able to make it up for the last week of June with the big trough and ULL that the ensembles are advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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