Weathergun Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 there's no cold at the surface. http://www.meteo.psu...2_6z/tloop.html Yeah. It's mostly a warm, dry downslope flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 So close, why not just say 100 degrees. 99 degrees and 100 degrees feels the same. Because they're not forecasting what it will feel like, they're forecasting the high. If they think it will be 99F, it is because they think it will be 99F. Would it make sense if you thought the temperature would drop to 33F to just call it 32F since they're "so close"? Sidenote: Newark's forecast is now 96F for Wednesday and 95F for Thursday from that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 It's interesting seeing clearing working east in NE-NJ and clouds building in from the west. Quite cool the last 2 days. Luckily the kids got me a new fire pit for faters day. Used it last night and felt like it was late september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 On rainy days, there will be some steep negative departures for the day 6-15 period and the rest of the days will be normal to slightly above normal. I would give it greater then a 50% chance at a negative departure June. I agree with that 50% chance. I think it comes down to this coming weekend and if we can maintain the above normal before the trough comes in 25/26th - 30th. GFS and ECm switched again and the gfs doesnt really dig the trough for more than a day and keeps it near normal through the end of the month. ECM a bit cooler durnig the period which as you noted would feature additional chances for rain and storms/clouds. Both models seem to indicate high heat is near by and could build in at times the first week of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 4th consecutive morning in the low 50s, 52F last night. Impressive going into late June. Usually lows are consistently in the 60s by this time of year. This is quite an impressive streak, got down to 55.3F in the hilly interior of Westchester which usually doesn't radiate well. I've gotten into the 50s the past three nights so it's been rather comfortable sleeping weather. Not looking forward to 96/71 Wednesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 12z NAM has 100F over NYC/NE NJ on Wed Near 100F over NYC on Thurs too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Because they're not forecasting what it will feel like, they're forecasting the high. If they think it will be 99F, it is because they think it will be 99F. Would it make sense if you thought the temperature would drop to 33F to just call it 32F since they're "so close"? Sidenote: Newark's forecast is now 96F for Wednesday and 95F for Thursday from that link. I've noticed that they are reluctant to forecast over 100 degrees. Even last year on the 108 degree day, I remember seeing a forecast of "upper 90s" until the day before, even when the models showed that we would easily cross 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I've noticed that they are reluctant to forecast over 100 degrees. Even last year on the 108 degree day, I remember seeing a forecast of "upper 90s" until the day before, even when the models showed that we would easily cross 100. It's similar to forecasting a blizzard -- a highly anomalous event. You'll rarely hear meteorologists forecasting 1-2ft+ accumulations more than 24 hours in advance of a storm, because it's such a deviation from climatology. In this case, average temps are in the low 80s, so a high of 100F is a significant event, and thus it's very risky to forecast it more than 1-2 days out. We can talk about potentials here on the weather board well in advance, but I think if we had to put a forecast out to the public, we'd also start them off w/ low 90s, then gradually trend upwards as confidence increases closer to the time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 12PM Roundup . Impressive cool, in 48 hours it'll be interesting to compare TEB: 68 NYC: 68 EWR: 66 LGA: 68 JFK: 66 TTN: 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 The NY area stations seem to be going with 92-93 Wednesday and 95-97 on Thursday. That 92 seems on the low side and would barely qualify as a 'heat wave' It's similar to forecasting a blizzard -- a highly anomalous event. You'll rarely hear meteorologists forecasting 1-2ft+ accumulations more than 24 hours in advance of a storm, because it's such a deviation from climatology. In this case, average temps are in the low 80s, so a high of 100F is a significant event, and thus it's very risky to forecast it more than 1-2 days out. We can talk about potentials here on the weather board well in advance, but I think if we had to put a forecast out to the public, we'd also start them off w/ low 90s, then gradually trend upwards as confidence increases closer to the time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 12PM Roundup . Impressive cool, in 48 hours it'll be interesting to compare TEB: 68 NYC: 68 EWR: 66 LGA: 68 JFK: 66 TTN: 66 Yeah, I've recorded 5 days with a high temp < 70.0F this month, which is pretty impressive (and 15/18 days with low temps below 60). We'll see if today's #6. I'm at 68F and mostly cloudy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 12z NAM now showing 102 for Wednesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Yeah, I've recorded 5 days with a high temp < 70.0F this month, which is pretty impressive (and 15/18 days with low temps below 60). We'll see if today's #6. I'm at 68F and mostly cloudy right now. 1965 had a prolonged cool spell around this time and then a heat wave a few days later...The early 1960's had quick turn a rounds from cool to hot... date.......max...min 6/08/61...79 59 6/13/61...96 75 6/15/61...66 54 ......................... 6/13/62...73 56 6/14/62...71 53 6/16/62...91 62 ......................... 6/22/63...79 54 6/25/63...95 68 .......................... 6/16/64...71 59 6/17/64...80 53 6/20/64...93 73 ......................... 6/18/65...73 56 6/19/65...80 55 6/21/65...90 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 The NY area stations seem to be going with 92-93 Wednesday and 95-97 on Thursday. That 92 seems on the low side and would barely qualify as a 'heat wave' 99+ to me is a heat wave. 92 would just be hot for me, something about 99 degrees or higher that just sounds like sizzling hot lol.....but the nam showing 102 thats where im gonna be during wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 99+ to me is a heat wave. 92 would just be hot for me, something about 99 degrees or higher that just sounds like sizzling hot lol.....but the nam showing 102 thats where im gonna be during wednesday 95+ on the south shore of LI is pretty doubtful, just like severe wx, the ocean kills us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 95+ on the south shore of LI is pretty doubtful, just like severe wx, the ocean kills us. oh yea while the city will be upper 90's or over 100 wednesday we'll be at best in hot spots upper 80's. the usual coastal shaft will rear its ugly head......AGAIN! lol......and where have the storms been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 oh yea while the city will be upper 90's or over 100 wednesday we'll be at best in hot spots upper 80's. the usual coastal shaft will rear its ugly head......AGAIN! lol......and where have the storms been? The storms have been either over Earthlight or the usual "North and West" of us. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 oh yea while the city will be upper 90's or over 100 wednesday we'll be at best in hot spots upper 80's. the usual coastal shaft will rear its ugly head......AGAIN! lol......and where have the storms been? eh...not quite, with a strong west flow over the land LI can easily bake in the mid-upper 90's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I dont kno about u....but i normally dont see skimpy clad coeds when im mowing... you need to market to new areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 In addition to showing 102 F temps on Wednesday afternoon, the NAM is also showing temps of 91 in NYC at 03z. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_18z/temp57.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Man, the streamlines really have a stout westerly component to them on Thursday....in the upper 90's to near 100 by 15z with 20+C 850's overhead just a few hours later. I'll be shocked if Newark doesn't hit 100 in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 The 18z NAM looks even warmer than the 12z NAM for thursday with areas of 100+ degrees more widespread on Thursday than what was present on the 12z NAM. 12z NAM at hour 78. 18z NAM at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Heh, the DGEX now has 20+C 850s advecting towards the area again on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the trough over Central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Upton supports adding a heat advisory with their HWO... with highs in the upper 90s and dew points close to 70 degrees the heat index should have no problem reaching the 100s for some. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A BLAST OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 18z DGEX has 100 degrees for Friday also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 18z DGEX has 100 degrees for Friday also. Only 100? That's shocking, I'm shocked it's not showing 120F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I just can't wait till this heat blast is over, it looks comfortable again by late weekend and next week, maybe below in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I just can't wait till this heat blast is over, it looks comfortable again by late weekend and next week, maybe below in fact. Highly doubt below, maybe near normal next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 Highly doubt below, maybe near normal next week. House... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 I just can't wait till this heat blast is over, it looks comfortable again by late weekend and next week, maybe below in fact. relax, it has not even started, enjoy the heat...but it will be back, its not going to be that cold next week...more like normal, lots of wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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