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June observations and discussions...


ag3

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Anyone know what HPC is doing? They tend to be conservative during heat waves in their temperature outlooks but their latest update doesn't even have NYC/NE NJ reaching 90 degrees in their max temp outlook... GFS is still hot, CMC is trending hotter, ECM cooled down a bit for Wednesday but still has 90 degrees on Wednesday and more widespread 90s on Thursday.

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Models are converging on a 2-3 day mini heat wave and then a big trough and cooldown again.

June has a shot to finish below normal. Will be close.

I will bet you a crisp ten dollar bill that this month will finish above normal.

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Not if models are right after the mini heat wave.

00z gfs remains weaker with next weekend's trough 6/23 - 6/25 (cool down), flipped with the euro from prior runs. Id rather have the euro supporting but at least its enough to argue for a more progressivr trough before the 25th. It does dig deeper trough by the 26th thru the 30th before heights rise jul 1st and and nation-wide warm up in the models lala range.

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00z gfs remains weaker with next weekend's trough 6/23 - 6/25 (cool down), flipped with the euro from prior runs. Id rather have the euro supporting but at least its enough to argue for a more progressivr trough before the 25th. It does dig deeper trough by the 26th thru the 30th before heights rise jul 1st and and nation-wide warm up in the models lala range.

0z ecm also is weaker with next weekend trough and keeps it at normal thru next weekend into the week of the 25th. 0z gfs the same although the gfs wants to dig down a trough tue - fri (6/26 - 6/29) before building heights by week of 7/1.

Ensembles overall cooler than the ops but a step towards the less trough/cooler scenario from prior runs fri and sat.

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long range seems to modify itself as time goes by with the extremes, too much jumping on the cool train. I think normal to slightly above after the heat

I think the period 6/24 - 6/30 will feature troughing over the northeast, but to what extent - i think as a whole we may come in overall near normal but more precip chances. Lurking in the wings to open July is potential ridging....

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LGA hit exactly 90 twice.

JFK has not hit 90 yet.

I was just kidding my friend. I think all stations rack up at least two 90 degree days. Only clouds seem to be the limit wed - thu. GFS continues with not much fanfare for the trough next weekend. Still looks closer to normal.

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I was just kidding my friend. I think all stations rack up at least two 90 degree days. Only clouds seem to be the limit wed - thu. GFS continues with not much fanfare for the trough next weekend. Still looks closer to normal.

I think EWR hits 90 3 times. LGA and NYC 2 times and JFK 1 time.

And these can be the last 90's until July, looking at long range ensembles.

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