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June observations and discussions...


ag3

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I still don't understand this fascination with big time heat, it's not like anyone can even be outside to enjoy near 100 degree weather anyway or would want to, unless your going to the beach or pool, which I doubt since the major heat will be during the week.

The historical value is what I'm guessing a lot of people are looking forward to.

I guess people love to sweat and smell.

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Will be interesting to see how bullish the 12z EC was. The 00z was a big flag for heat, but if it comes up for a consecutive run, then some of these forecasts may need to be bumped up BIG time. It's always amusing to watch MOS this far out. It was showing 80s to near 90 (up in these parts) and might have to add 6-8 degrees to that...

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Agree, 12z GFS now goes bonkers with the heat surge, beginning Tuesday. We'll be into the +18c 850mb temps, actually increasing by Tuesday afternoon. I'm thinking widespread low 90s Tuesday, isolated mid 90s. Wed-Thurs should be widespread mid 90s with pockets of near 100F. Depending on cloud cover, Friday may also be 90. Say goodbye to the negative June departures right now.

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see some areas reach the low 100s as long as there's no major change in the set up. The models show 850mb temps around at least 21-22C, which in typical summer heat waves can easily support upper 90s-100 degrees. Last year on July 22, there was the big heat surge when Newark reached its record high of 108 degrees; 850mb temps were around 23-24C, which is slightly hotter than this case. The July 2010 and June 2008 heat waves had similar 850mb temps, if not slightly cooler than those modeled for Wed/Thu, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.

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I noticed the gfs digs a deeper trough in next weekend after the heat. Prior runs were showing much less troughing and heights quickly recovering by the 25th or so. The 12z has a trough from about the 24th through the 28th.

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Helluva day around these parts. 52F low this morning and 77F and not a cloud in the sky now. Mid/late September temps but with a very strong sun.

Made it up to 80 - just sensational out there.

Looksl like Lovin Spoonful is warming up after the Beach Boys. Theyre opening with (Hot Town) Summer in The City.

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I still don't understand this fascination with big time heat, it's not like anyone can even be outside to enjoy near 100 degree weather anyway or would want to, unless your going to the beach or pool, which I doubt since the major heat will be during the week.

The historical value is what I'm guessing a lot of people are looking forward to.

the same can be said for those wishing for a foot to 2 feet when 6 inches will do the job

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Bluewave - hoping yuo could post some ensemble images for the period D10 and beyond. Today's 12 gfs really went wacky with a deep trough moving through next weekend after the heat. ECM much less deep and brings warmth back by d9 and d10. GFS seems to want to warm up by end of the month again.

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Bluewave - hoping yuo could post some ensemble images for the period D10 and beyond. Today's 12 gfs really went wacky with a deep trough moving through next weekend after the heat. ECM much less deep and brings warmth back by d9 and d10. GFS seems to want to warm up by end of the month again.

The day 10 ensembles have a trough in the East. The Euro ensemble mean is cooler than the OP and more in line

with the GEFS.

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& for cold as well. No one says anything when people are wishing for dangerously cold temps.

I'm loving the weather right now.

Understood that cold can be just as dangerous. But I have more trouble with the heat since it affects my body more with humidity, and also can be more persistent. Also, snow melts, so blizzards are fun unless constant.

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Thanks Bluewave. It'll be interesting to track how things evolve after the heat next week and into the end of the month.

Today's glorious dailies

NYC: 80/60 (-2)

EWR: 80/60 (-3)

LGA: 79/64 (0)

JFK: 80/59

TTN: 800/57 (-2)

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Thanks Bluewave. It'll be interesting to track how things evolve after the heat next week and into the end of the month.

Today's glorious dailies

NYC: 80/60 (-2)

EWR: 80/60 (-3)

LGA: 79/64 (0)

JFK: 80/59

TTN: 800/57 (-2)

Something seems to be a little off with the bolded... I didn't know 800 degrees was slightly cooler than average :lol:

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Only made it to 76.0F after a low of 60.5F early this morning here in Westchester. Setting up for another cool night and a beautiful weekend before the heat comes into town.

Yeah I had a 77/52 split here today. Back down to 58 and crystal clear, crisp, cool now...

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Today was an amazing day. I did a fitness trifecta: played a tennis match, ran on the track, and played an ultimate frisbee game. Can't do that in insane heat.

Though the east coast has had troughing for a while (placing me in the Plains under a nice ridge during storm chasing :/ ), so I guess we're overdue for heat.

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