MJO812 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I still don't understand this fascination with big time heat, it's not like anyone can even be outside to enjoy near 100 degree weather anyway or would want to, unless your going to the beach or pool, which I doubt since the major heat will be during the week. The historical value is what I'm guessing a lot of people are looking forward to. I guess people love to sweat and smell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Will be interesting to see how bullish the 12z EC was. The 00z was a big flag for heat, but if it comes up for a consecutive run, then some of these forecasts may need to be bumped up BIG time. It's always amusing to watch MOS this far out. It was showing 80s to near 90 (up in these parts) and might have to add 6-8 degrees to that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Beautiful day. Went for a nice run around the neighborhood. Excited for the heat next week for some nice beach days as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Agree, 12z GFS now goes bonkers with the heat surge, beginning Tuesday. We'll be into the +18c 850mb temps, actually increasing by Tuesday afternoon. I'm thinking widespread low 90s Tuesday, isolated mid 90s. Wed-Thurs should be widespread mid 90s with pockets of near 100F. Depending on cloud cover, Friday may also be 90. Say goodbye to the negative June departures right now. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see some areas reach the low 100s as long as there's no major change in the set up. The models show 850mb temps around at least 21-22C, which in typical summer heat waves can easily support upper 90s-100 degrees. Last year on July 22, there was the big heat surge when Newark reached its record high of 108 degrees; 850mb temps were around 23-24C, which is slightly hotter than this case. The July 2010 and June 2008 heat waves had similar 850mb temps, if not slightly cooler than those modeled for Wed/Thu, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 the euro held serve... the heat is on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I noticed the gfs digs a deeper trough in next weekend after the heat. Prior runs were showing much less troughing and heights quickly recovering by the 25th or so. The 12z has a trough from about the 24th through the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Helluva day around these parts. 52F low this morning and 77F and not a cloud in the sky now. Mid/late September temps but with a very strong sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Helluva day around these parts. 52F low this morning and 77F and not a cloud in the sky now. Mid/late September temps but with a very strong sun. Made it up to 80 - just sensational out there. Looksl like Lovin Spoonful is warming up after the Beach Boys. Theyre opening with (Hot Town) Summer in The City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I still don't understand this fascination with big time heat, it's not like anyone can even be outside to enjoy near 100 degree weather anyway or would want to, unless your going to the beach or pool, which I doubt since the major heat will be during the week. The historical value is what I'm guessing a lot of people are looking forward to. the same can be said for those wishing for a foot to 2 feet when 6 inches will do the job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 the same can be said for those wishing for a foot to 2 feet when 6 inches will do the job & for cold as well. No one says anything when people are wishing for dangerously cold temps. I'm loving the weather right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Bluewave - hoping yuo could post some ensemble images for the period D10 and beyond. Today's 12 gfs really went wacky with a deep trough moving through next weekend after the heat. ECM much less deep and brings warmth back by d9 and d10. GFS seems to want to warm up by end of the month again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Bluewave - hoping yuo could post some ensemble images for the period D10 and beyond. Today's 12 gfs really went wacky with a deep trough moving through next weekend after the heat. ECM much less deep and brings warmth back by d9 and d10. GFS seems to want to warm up by end of the month again. The day 10 ensembles have a trough in the East. The Euro ensemble mean is cooler than the OP and more in line with the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 & for cold as well. No one says anything when people are wishing for dangerously cold temps. I'm loving the weather right now. Understood that cold can be just as dangerous. But I have more trouble with the heat since it affects my body more with humidity, and also can be more persistent. Also, snow melts, so blizzards are fun unless constant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Thanks Bluewave. It'll be interesting to track how things evolve after the heat next week and into the end of the month. Today's glorious dailies NYC: 80/60 (-2) EWR: 80/60 (-3) LGA: 79/64 (0) JFK: 80/59 TTN: 800/57 (-2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Only made it to 76.0F after a low of 60.5F early this morning here in Westchester. Setting up for another cool night and a beautiful weekend before the heat comes into town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Thanks Bluewave. It'll be interesting to track how things evolve after the heat next week and into the end of the month. Today's glorious dailies NYC: 80/60 (-2) EWR: 80/60 (-3) LGA: 79/64 (0) JFK: 80/59 TTN: 800/57 (-2) Something seems to be a little off with the bolded... I didn't know 800 degrees was slightly cooler than average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Understood that cold can be just as dangerous. But I have more trouble with the heat since it affects my body more with humidity, and also can be more persistent. Also, snow melts, so blizzards are fun unless constant. I think your chances of dying are worse at 5 than at 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Should be interesting to see if models back off a few degrees away from the upper 90s/ potential 100 degree mark maybe isolated mid 90s south of nyc not 100% sold on the upper 90s or 100 degree mark just yet. Lets see where we stand say come Sunday then maybe I will be on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 If every day could be like today through the end of August, I would be so happy. Beautiful summer day. Hopefully models back off of the torch. No need for 90+ and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Only made it to 76.0F after a low of 60.5F early this morning here in Westchester. Setting up for another cool night and a beautiful weekend before the heat comes into town. Yeah I had a 77/52 split here today. Back down to 58 and crystal clear, crisp, cool now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Today was an amazing day. I did a fitness trifecta: played a tennis match, ran on the track, and played an ultimate frisbee game. Can't do that in insane heat. Though the east coast has had troughing for a while (placing me in the Plains under a nice ridge during storm chasing :/ ), so I guess we're overdue for heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Another gorgeous morning out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 This weather is starting to get boring. I need a good thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Just saw a local met show 87 degrees on Wednesday, 89 on Thursday and calling it a beautiful week... some of these forecasts are a bit too conservative. Maybe it won't reach 98-100 degrees but 95 degrees is easily within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Thru 6/15 (half wayto Jul) NYC: -1.9 EWR: -1.8 LGA: -0.9 JFK: -1.1 TTN: -1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 tv mets are always behind the curve in forecasting heat, they will change their tune by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 tv mets are always behind the curve in forecasting heat, they will change their tune by Monday last nights euro makes this more of a tue - thu affair with front coming thru early fri. GFS has it sometime on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Chilly low once again for mid June. Down to 51.0F here. Up to 71 now. I've had 12 nights sub 60 so far this month, 2 of those in the 40s, which is pretty good for June. More like a September month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 10AM Roundup TEB: 74 NYC: 72 EWR: 74 LGA: 72 JFK: 74 TTN: 72 California syle continues http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbRKfieMsdQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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