mattinpa Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Just about to post the same - as we get closer seems guidance is getting warmer... It's just one run, but are those 20+C 850s coming in a week? The GFS no longer always labels the lines. That would be mid to upper 90s maybe? Some heat returns later, but doesn't look as severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 It's just one run, but are those 20+C 850s coming in a week? The GFS no longer always labels the lines. That would be mid to upper 90s maybe? Some heat returns later, but doesn't look as severe. There's been several runs hinting at the potential to bake wed - fri. This run certainly implies that and really remains warm throughout the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 There's been several runs hinting at the potential to bake wed - fri. This run certainly implies that and really remains warm throughout the rest of the run. Just like in the winter, we have to see if the trend holds. Though summer heat is more common than winter cold anymore. At least it just looks like a short extreme phase. How hot are temps on this GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Just like in the winter, we have to see if the trend holds. Though summer heat is more common than winter cold anymore. At least it just looks like a short extreme phase. How hot are temps on this GFS run? GFS shows mid-upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday north/west of the city, although from what I've observed when heat potentials verify, it tends to have a slight cool bias when forecasting heat. Friday also reaches 90 degrees ahead of a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 GFS shows mid-upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday north/west of the city, although from what I've observed when heat potentials verify, it tends to have a slight cool bias when forecasting heat. Friday also reaches 90 degrees ahead of a cold front. Sounds like this might be an exception to that cool bias with those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 GFS shows mid-upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday north/west of the city, although from what I've observed when heat potentials verify, it tends to have a slight cool bias when forecasting heat. Friday also reaches 90 degrees ahead of a cold front. Maybe some severe Wx next Fridaty with the cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Big time heat surge on the 00z Euro...not far from the 12z Euro Ensembles that bluewave posted earlier. Huge bubble of 20+c H85 temps over the Northeast beginning Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Ewr making a run a 100 on euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Maybe some severe Wx next Fridaty with the cold front? Way too early to get excited. But as of now, the upper-level trough looks impressive for severe wx in the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic. Especially on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 its coming...its really finally coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 its coming...its really finally coming We have had a couple days of 90 (Memorial Day) and some places this past Sunday but this looks like the first bonafide heatwave potential. DC - EWR could flirt with 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I think the next heat surge waits a little longer than 0z Euro op has. The 0z Euro ensemble mean, still has deeper trough over the East Coast, for next weekend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 its coming...its really finally coming Let the lawns burnout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I think the next heat surge waits a little longer than 0z Euro op has. The 0z Euro ensemble mean, still has deeper trough over the East Coast, for next weekend: Are you referring to the next potential heat signal after next week (post 6/23)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I still don't understand this fascination with big time heat, it's not like anyone can even be outside to enjoy near 100 degree weather anyway or would want to, unless your going to the beach or pool, which I doubt since the major heat will be during the week. The historical value is what I'm guessing a lot of people are looking forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 LA Story in NYC continues this weekend Just unreal out there today. Makes you want to play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Way too early to get excited. But as of now, the upper-level trough looks impressive for severe wx in the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic. Especially on the GFS. I will be more excited for that. For what day? Bring on the heat and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 I will be more excited for that. For what day? Bring on the heat and thunderstorms. As it stands now sometime friday (6/22) over overnight into sat (6/23). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 As it stands now sometime friday (6/22) over overnight into sat (6/23). unless strong mid level flow can wash over the warm sector, i'm not that excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 LA Story in NYC continues this weekend Just unreal out there today. Makes you want to play People must like sitting in air conditioning enclosed inside somewhere since they're hoping for 100 degrees. I rather have 70-85, bone dry, partly cloudy skies, and a 10-15 mph breeze to actually do stuff outdoors and enjoy nature. But whatever none of us can control the weather so who cares what people want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Are you referring to the next potential heat signal after next week (post 6/23)? Yes. I think need another heat surge may be on the way at the end of month. Or maybe longer if the GEFS is right. As for next week, 594dm ridge is showing up on the 6z GEFS. I'm always concerned about models handle troughs over SE Canada and the Western Atlantic. But don't think there is much backdoor front potential showing up on the models. The shortwave Euro had closing over Canadian Maritimes, seemed to be an outlier. The overall model trend for now, is for the trough/cut-off to lift out faster and ridge to build over Eastern US, next week. The Wednesday thru Friday period, is looking to be hottest on the Euro and GFS. With high temps 95-100F possible, for the inland spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 15, 2012 Author Share Posted June 15, 2012 People must like sitting in air conditioning enclosed inside somewhere since they're hoping for 100 degrees. I rather have 70-85, bone dry, partly cloudy skies, and a 10-15 mph breeze to actually do stuff outdoors and enjoy nature. But whatever none of us can control the weather so who cares what people want. In all fairness 75-80 degrees sucks on the beaches. For a great beach day, both north and south shores, you really need 90-95 degree temps, since its always cooler by the shore. Also, the water temps are very chilly to swim in right now and big heat will give it a nice temperature rise to make it enjoyable. Last Sunday on the North Fork was nearly impossible to enjoy a dip. Water was in the low 60's and trying to swim was excruciating. But I agree, unless you have access to a pool or a beach, big heat of 90+ degrees is useless for outdoor activities. Being that I go to the North Fork beaches of LI every single weekend, I'm hoping for 90+ degrees every weekend from now until late August and and 75-80 degrees during the week while stuck at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Amazing morning for golf today. Couldn't think of more perfect conditions, loved it. Pretty soon even 5:57am tee times will be miserable to play in. Outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Amazing morning for golf today. Couldn't think of more perfect conditions, loved it. Pretty soon even 5:57am tee times will be miserable to play in. Outstanding. Where did you golf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 People must like sitting in air conditioning enclosed inside somewhere since they're hoping for 100 degrees. I rather have 70-85, bone dry, partly cloudy skies, and a 10-15 mph breeze to actually do stuff outdoors and enjoy nature. But whatever none of us can control the weather so who cares what people want. I enjoy the heat and to me the hotter the better in the summer. But I do appreciate those that dont - to each his own. I am a snow in the winter heat in the summer kind of guy. Im not a big fan of spring or fall. But today is very nice and I tell you it seems we've had so many of these types of days since March unlike any other year i can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Where did you golf? On a golf course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 People must like sitting in air conditioning enclosed inside somewhere since they're hoping for 100 degrees. I rather have 70-85, bone dry, partly cloudy skies, and a 10-15 mph breeze to actually do stuff outdoors and enjoy nature. But whatever none of us can control the weather so who cares what people want. Both are nice to me, but 100+ degrees never stopped me from doing anything. I don't even have AC. It feels so nice out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 75-80 degrees might be cool on the beach but it's nice for other outdoor activities. 90-100 (inland) is good beach weather since the sea breeze will make it 5-10 degrees cooler. Of course, we would rather see 20 degrees and 2 feet of snow than 80 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Big heat signal coming up...starts to warm Tuesday, but WED/THU look downright hot. 850s over 20C, could see widespread 95+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Big heat signal coming up...starts to warm Tuesday, but WED/THU look downright hot. 850s over 20C, could see widespread 95+ Agree, 12z GFS now goes bonkers with the heat surge, beginning Tuesday. We'll be into the +18c 850mb temps, actually increasing by Tuesday afternoon. I'm thinking widespread low 90s Tuesday, isolated mid 90s. Wed-Thurs should be widespread mid 90s with pockets of near 100F. Depending on cloud cover, Friday may also be 90. Say goodbye to the negative June departures right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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