tornadojay Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 And it's warmer than the last sounding run yea.. it's definitely looking warm no matter how you slice it... will it end up being around 90ish or are we going to start pushing mid-upper 90s'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Completely cloudy here..knew we were in trouble today when i felt that wind off ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Completely cloudy here..knew we were in trouble today when i felt that wind off ocean Yeah another day of clouds coast and sun inland. It's 69F and OVC here. 80s in W NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 it's gone partly sunny by me.. Still at the high temp of the day... 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Mostly sunny and warm in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 A beautiful day setting up in Somerset County. Temperature is 76 Degrees with a mix of sun and clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Still mostly (80%) cloudy in SE Queens, temp up to 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 And it's warmer than the last sounding run Verbatim, the 12z GFS only has borderline 90 degrees for 1 day in NYC. Sounding shows 88-90 degrees for next Thursday. Wednesday's high is 85 degrees and next Friday is low 80's. Its warmer for Wed-Fri for the interior and northern areas though. Pushing 90 all 3 days. 6z Run had Thursday and Friday right near 90 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 While it might not be so hot next week, there's a great opportunity for severe weather with the next frontal system. It almost looks like a repeat of this week's frontal system with far more instability and tropical-like moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Another big heat surge on the 12z Euro. 12+ H85 temps by Tuesday, 20 c by Wednesday. Widespread 20+C throughout the OV and Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 12z ECM is still hot as earthlight mentioned, but with this pattern we still need to be on the lookout for any back door cold front that pops up... these BDCFs have been underestimated in the medium range in previous warm spell potentials, and while I have little doubt that at least some heat will move into the region, there could still be some back door cold front that shows up on future runs and reduces this heat potential. The BDCF is still just a possible scenario, and if the heat does end up uninterrupted, which would be the first time it's happened this month, temperatures would easily get into the 90s without a problem away from the coast. Hour 168 on the ECM appears to show a weak BDCF nearby: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 12z ECM is still hot as earthlight mentioned, but with this pattern we still need to be on the lookout for any back door cold front that pops up... these BDCFs have been underestimated in the medium range in previous warm spell potentials, and while I have little doubt that at least some heat will move into the region, there could still be some back door cold front that shows up on future runs and reduces this heat potential. The BDCF is still just a possible scenario, and if the heat does end up uninterrupted, which would be the first time it's happened this month, temperatures would easily get into the 90s without a problem away from the coast. Hour 168 on the ECM appears to show a weak BDCF nearby: Definitely agree with being cautious about surging heat in with low heights northeast of us. It's been our downfall so far most of the late spring and could be again. I'd much rather see a flatter flow and westerlies. It's not hard to sneak a backdoor front through and sock us in with easterlies, even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Freakin perfect outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Freakin perfect outside right now. Tell me about it. Why anyone would want anything else is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 The Euro ensemble mean is not showing the backdoor that the OP was today. It has the same general idea that the GFS and the GEFS are running with. Great signal for Newark to make it to 95 degrees or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Freakin perfect outside right now. Very nice LA-like weather. Im enjoying it very much! Still enjoy the heat in the summer but this is quite enjoyable especially when we have multiple days of it. Speaking of perfect id say the image in your user profile is darn close - I may be rooting for Holland from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 The Euro ensemble mean is not showing the backdoor that the OP was today. I dont think the backdoor was much of an issue on the op for areas from NYC on south. Looks like a 3 day period of heat to help get back to normal for the monthly departures. Notice the trough coming around the 23rd seems not as deep as prior guidance. Still a long way to go and with the threat of backdoor, it'll be interesting to track the seasons potential first heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 like manna from heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Even the Euro OP if taken literally probably doesn't bring a big BDCF problem to us. But its the trends that need to be watched. We've seen those cutoffs wreak havoc on heatwave potential all year long (so far). But seeing the ensembles that bullish is definitely a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Very nice LA-like weather. Im enjoying it very much! Still enjoy the heat in the summer but this is quite enjoyable especially when we have multiple days of it. Speaking of perfect id say the image in your user profile is darn close - I may be rooting for Holland from now on. haha thanks. The dutch team has completely collapsed like ive never seen happen before, so you are better off routing for spain, even though their women are not as attractive. Tomorrow looking like a good beach day, nice offshore flow, i may do some job hunting at Jones Beach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 haha thanks. The dutch team has completely collapsed like ive never seen happen before, so you are better off routing for spain, even though their women are not as attractive. Tomorrow looking like a good beach day, nice offshore flow, i may do some job hunting at Jones Beach... ?? Everyday until Tuesday has east winds forecasted. Today were east winds 15-25mph. East winds are not good beach days anywhere on LI or NJ shore. LI Sound is choppy and brown, Ocean has big waves on outgoing tide and the Jersey shore has winds in their face and also choppy and bad water conditions. I'm pissed about it because it makes fishing on a boat annoying. Bad chop and wind against tides on the outgoing tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Even the Euro OP if taken literally probably doesn't bring a big BDCF problem to us. But its the trends that need to be watched. We've seen those cutoffs wreak havoc on heatwave potential all year long (so far). But seeing the ensembles that bullish is definitely a good sign. there's going to be a warm front dangled somewhere near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 there's going to be a warm front dangled somewhere near us Not in this synoptic setup. It should be near Albany. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f144.gif If the big vortex over the Atlantic slides south/southwest, then maybe the front can retreat towards Long Island and Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 ?? Everyday until Tuesday has east winds forecasted. Today were east winds 15-25mph. East winds are not good beach days anywhere on LI or NJ shore. LI Sound is choppy and brown, Ocean has big waves on outgoing tide and the Jersey shore has winds in their face and also choppy and bad water conditions. I'm pissed about it because it makes fishing on a boat annoying. Bad chop and wind against tides on the outgoing tides. winds tomorrow are NE, not east, which is actually relatively warm for south facing shores...as opposed to a southerly sea breeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 18z GFS trended to an 0z ECM-like heat scenario (slightly less extreme though) with at least 2 very hot days, with the offshore ULL further away from the region this run. With the amount of time left there's still the possibility that something could go wrong, but so far it appears to be the best heat potential we've had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Driving on rt 18 and this weather made me feel like i was on the PCH. Truly great out there - seems we've had many California-like days this sping/summer. Todays highs. NYC: 77 EWR: 78 LGA: 77 JFK: 77 TTN: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 NYC: 77/63 (-1) EWR: 78/63 (-1) LGA: 77/65 (-1) JFK: 77/62 TTN: 76/63 (0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Well the 0z gfs is baking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 Well the 0z gfs is baking Just about to post the same - as we get closer seems guidance is getting warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 15, 2012 Share Posted June 15, 2012 GFS also a lot gentler with the trough next weekend and seems to want to quickly build heights back by the 25th or so. Seems to be trending that way thelast few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.